With the entry draft this weekend and free agent frenzy looming, how much cap space do the Rangers really have?
For what seems like the first time in the salary cap era, the New York Rangers actually have money to spend. They can make a splash on July 1 when the free agent market opens. Although this isn’t the greatest free agent class, there are some impact players available who could get the team into playoff contention while Henrik Lundqvist is still an elite goaltender.
The key question is the definition of the “rebuild.” If you look at the payroll for the roster that ended last season there is enough cap space to make some additions. The question is what is needed to improve a team that over the last six weeks of the season went 7-8-2. It took 97 points to make the playoffs last season. Is it reasonable to expect the team that finished last season will be able to improve enough? Let’s look at the salary cap situation for that team.
The current roster
The Rangers have seven forwards under contract (Zibanejad, Kreider, Zuccarello, Fast, Buchnevich, Chytil and Andersson) for a total of $19 million. They have five defensemen under contract (Shattenkirk, Staal, Pionk, Deangelo, Smith) for a total of $17.5 million. They have two goalies (Lundqvist, Georgiev) for another $9.3 million. That’s a total of $45.8 million. Matt Beleskey’s minor league salary and the Girardi buyout hit adds up to another $5 million. So, the team has committed a little over $50 million in salary for 2018-19.
The salary cap was set at $79.5 million. That means the team has $30 million to play with.
RFA salary expectations
The team has a number of RFA’s to sign. Assuming that the team will essentially remain the same let’s take a guess at what it will take. Kevin Hayes will look for the biggest payday and should end up with $5 million. Vlad Namestikov is coming off his best statistical season and should get about $3.5 million. Ditto for Ryan Spooner so let’s give him the same $3.5 million. Jimmy Vesey is an interesting case. This should be a make or break season for him and a one year deal for $2 million would make sense. So, $14 million for four RFA forwards.
The team has three RFA defensemen. Rob O’Gara will be easy and should be re-inked for less than $1 million. Coming off an entry level deal, John Gilmour should end up as the seventh defenseman for about $1.5 million. Brady Skjei is also coming off an entry level deal and as arguably the team’s best defenseman (sophomore jinx notwithstanding) should be looking for a multi-year deal at about $4 million per. That rounds out the defense for $6.5 million.
So, the final payrolll for the team that finished 2017-18 is $70.5 million committed to 11 forwards, eight defensemen and two goalies. They will need two more forwards to round out the roster. One could be Peter Holland and the other could be Brett Howden or Ty Ronning for another $1.5 million.
If the team stays out of the free agent market and goes with kids, they would have about $8 million in cap space when the season begins. Will that team be better? With more seasoning we can expect an improvement from Chytil and Andersson, but it is pretty clear that this is not a playoff team.
The retool option
One thing the team has always done is spend to the cap. The key question is whether spending to the cap will allow the team to be a playoff contender. Let’s fantasize:
Let’s say that Jeff Gorton can flip Namestikov, Spooner and a draft pick to move up in the draft. Ronning and Howden won’t be rushed to the NHL and will get experience in Hartford. That leaves $16 million to fill out the roster.
Can the Rangers persuade John Tavares to cross the East River and will that be enough to convince Ilya Kovalchuk that the team is a playoff contender? Or is local product James van Riemsdyk a better option? To shore up the defense is a veteran UFA like Ian Cole, Michal Kempny or Calvin de Haan an option? Or maybe a trade for an RFA like Matt Dumba or Darnell Nurse from teams with cap issues. Is there a blockbuster option? Could the Rangers put together a package for Erik Karlsson that would tempt Ottawa?
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They still have a lot of question marks and any trades in the next few days will impact the team’s ability to sign free agents. The one thing that is clear is that the team has options and for the first time in years, enough cap space to explore them.