The New York Rangers had to choose between Kevin Hayes and J.T. Miller this offseason. Ultimately, they chose to trade away Miller to the Tampa Bay Lightning as part of the Ryan McDonagh deal.
Maintaining a quality roster over time in the NHL is a difficult challenge. For teams that grow a majority of their talent in house, the salary cap presents the largest obstacle. When a team has multiple players due for extensions during the same offseason, it forces a general manager to pick their favorite child. In the New York Rangers case, there were three marquee restricted free agents all due for raises.
First, there was defenseman Brady Skjei, who represents the team’s future on the blue line. In addition to Skjei there were forwards J.T. Miller and Kevin Hayes. Being that the Rangers had a gluttony at the center position, the team had to make a gut choice between Miller and Hayes. At face value, the choice came down to multiple factors.
The team had to make the choice due to the fact that both performed at a similar statistical level. Also, both players occupied a similar role in the team’s depth chart, the middle to top six forward that could play center or wing depending on the situation. However, the logic for extending each one was different.
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The Rangers did not draft Hayes like they did Miller, however, each forward managed to play a key role in the team’s success this decade.
The underlyings
The biggest difference between the two forwards is their underlying statistical production. Underlying statistical production are measures that are not directly calculated like goals or assists. These are stats like Corsi For Percentage, Assists Per 60, PDO and others. Of the two players, Hayes has the better underlying statistical production.
First, it is important to note the different roles the two players were given. Hayes this past season started nearly 60 % of the time in the defensive zone and still managed to post a 45.9 CF%. This means that when Hayes was on the ice, the Rangers generated 45.9% of the shots in the game. This number is below the average player CF% of 50 in part because of the zone starts.
On the other end there was Miller who was a more sheltered player. The forward started 56% of the time in the offensive zone and had a 46.8 CF% while a member of the Rangers. Of course, once Miller started riding shotgun with Steven Stamkos and Nikkita Kucherov, his CF% jumped up to 52.8.
This boils down to the Rangers asking more of Hayes and the Boston native still managing to produce at a comparable level to Miller.
The cost
The biggest disparity between the two players will be in terms of value from their respective contracts. On Wednesday June 27, the Lightning and Miller agreed to a five year $5.25 million per season deal. This figure for a winger that is dependent on his line mates to generate scoring chances seems rather high.
In comparison, if the Rangers were to sign Hayes to a carbon copy deal, they would be getting a steal. Not only is Hayes good for at least 40 points next season, he can play on both special teams and start in any zone. A center capable of being effective with any zone start is invaluable and key component of any successful team. Throw in the value of centers over wingers and it is clear that Hayes is a better value for his potential contract.
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The Rangers should really try to sign Hayes to a long term deal this offseason. At just 26 years old, Hayes can still play a key role on the team in two or three years when the roster is more competitive. If New York can secure the center for five years at $5.75 million per season, they’d be in great shape. No matter what though, choosing to keep team control of Hayes over Miller was the right choice.