With most of the offseason going to plan, the New York Rangers still have a big piece of the puzzle left. His name is Kevin Hayes, but the price is still unknown.
There hasn’t been much to complain about if you’re a New York Rangers fan over the last four months. The team has committed to a rebuild and have done everything necessary to start over with a young core.
The team traded high on players like J.T. Miller and Ryan McDonagh. They drafted extremely well and have pooled together a nice assortment of prospects.
The only thing that has been questionable from the Rangers is the resigning of Cody McLeod. Outside of that it has been a successful offseason.
Now, the Rangers need to continue their success by signing Kevin Hayes. Hayes has been a Ranger for four seasons. Though he is listed as a center, he has moved around in the lineup.
The biggest question with Hayes is how much is he worth? The Rangers are hoping that his best years are ahead of him. But do they pay him based on what he’s done, what he will do, or try and find a combination of both?
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Assessing Hayes
Kevin Hayes is versatile. He has played center and right wing for the Rangers. For the most part he has been durable as well. In his four seasons he has played 79 games twice and 76 games twice.
Hayes has seemed to progress every season with the Rangers thus far, but he hasn’t had what you would call a breakout season thus far. In his four years he has totaled 45, 36, 49 and 44 points. Last season was the only year that Hayes has totaled more goals than assists. He had 25 goals and 19 assists in 2017-2018.
The biggest question mark with Hayes is if the Rangers have seen his best hockey yet. If he were to be a 40-45 point player the rest of his career he could still certainly help the team.
However, his price tag wouldn’t be nearly as high then. The Rangers have to walk a fine line when negotiating the contract and determine how much they want to pay for a player who has never had a 50 point season.
I believe Hayes can and will exceed 50 points. He has the tools and the mindset to succeed at the NHL level. Last season he started to show a scoring touch.
It’s just tough to fully assess a player on a team that had nothing to play for by the time the calendar turned to 2018. He has a big body and uses it well and if he continues to learn the game at a high level he should be a force for New York down the middle.
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What price is right?
So, what do you pay a player like Kevin Hayes. His point totals don’t blow you away. He doesn’t do anything especially well. But he is still young. Hayes turned 26 in early May. The speculation around Hayes has been that he could get anywhere from $5 million to $5.75 million a year for his next contract.
Currently there are 53 centers in the league who are making at least $5 million a year. Hayes will never garner a deal like the McDavid’s and Crosby’s of the league, but he certainly deserves more than a Nick Bonino or Adam Henrique.
When I look at the current contracts around the league, two players stick out to me who I feel are comparable to Hayes: Bo Horvat and Tomas Hertl. Both players a slightly younger than Hayes, but they are similar centers.
Horvat has played four seasons and has 161 points. Hertl has played five seasons totaling 170 points. Hayes is at four seasons and totaled 174 points.
His production is slightly better than both players but they are all very comparable in skill, age and potential. Hertl claims just over $5.5 million a year and Horvat is right at that number. Hertz’s deal is a four year contract while Horvat is at six years.
That is exactly where I see Hayes. Somewhere around four or five years with an annual cap hit anywhere from $5.25-5.75 million. Horvat and Hertl are being payed for potential and Hayes has had solid success but can do even more which is why he is worth that cap hit.
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I expect the Rangers and Hayes to work things out well. I think the team understands the type of player Hayes is and how valuable he can be to a rebuild. The team should lock him up with a solid pay day and expect a good return this upcoming season.