The New York Rangers have a small army of defensive prospects in the pipeline. At the NHL level, Brady Skjei still needs to find his true role for the future.
The New York Rangers and Brady Skjei are a little more than a week away from their scheduled arbitration date. Now, assuming the two parties reach a deal without an arbitrator, the team has an important decision to make. By all accounts, Skjei should be considered a building block for the rebuild based on his upside and only being 24 years old.
Whether the front office should offer Skjei a bridge deal is a different discussion. However, the team should take what they have in the former Minnesota Golden Gopher and keep building on it. At times, Skjei has shown flashes of an elite offensive defenseman. During his rookie season, his 27 assists at even strength was good for third in the entire league behind only Erik Karlsson and Brent Burns.
But, with the Rangers having a hard regression during the 2017-2018 season, so did Skjei. Being that the team’s defensive system did not match the personnel, it made being effective extremely difficult. Even as one of the team’s best skaters, Skjei struggled to succeed in the overload system.
Now, with the Rangers in year one of a true rebuild, this upcoming season will be a proving ground for a hungry group. For a player like Skjei that is entering year three, it will be a serious look at his potential and room for growth.
The good
Of all of New York’s defenseman, Skjei is almost certainly the team’s best skater. When the former Golden Gopher uses his silky smooth skating to get out of trouble, he’s playing his best game. During his rookie season, Skjei would skate the puck out of the zone with ease. In fact, Skjei’s zone exit numbers compare well to former Ranger captain Ryan McDonagh.
For a defenseman, a successful zone exit is a key part of the modern NHL. Since every player skates well, it is hard to transition from defense to offense. However, this is the key to the modern NHL, if a team controls the puck, they are not defending their own net. This emphasis on quick transitions between defense to offense is one of the points that the team’s new Head Coach, David Quinn, has emphasized.
In addition to having solid zone exit numbers, Skjei also has stellar zone entry numbers. This is another building block for building a replicable model for success. When a team has to dump the puck in to gain the offensive zone, the team is surrendering possession. Instead, when a team carries the puck into the offensive zone, they are maintaining control of the puck.
In the long term, these are sustainable good habits that help a team win. Over the course of an 82 game season, things tend to level out and find their mean. On a good team, defenseman contribute in the offensive end of the ice, in non-counting stat ways. For example, Skjei had a -27 +/- rating, meaning that he was on the ice for 27 goals more than the Rangers scored.
Yet, it is worth noting that the best offensive defenseman often have bad plus minus ratings and bad turnover numbers. Erik Karlsson, who is without question the best offensive defenseman in hockey, had a -25 +/- this past season and averaged more than one giveaway per game. This is because offensively creative players take risks, and sometimes creativity gets burned.
The bad
On the other end of the spectrum, there are clear issues with Skjei’s game. Part of his struggles this past season can be chalked up to the overall lack of quality on the team and the defensive system. If the scheme by design calls for both defenseman to be on the same side of the ice, this leaves an offensive player open on the opposite side.
But, not all of Skjei’s struggles can be blamed on the team around him. Following the McDonagh trade deadline move, Skjei was pushed up the depth chart and played on the first defensive pair. The defenseman played three and a half more minutes per game on average than his rookie season. In addition to playing more minutes, Skjei also started slightly more in the defensive zone than the offensive zone.
Couple the more minutes per night while starting in the defensive zone more with tougher quality of competition and it is clear that Skjei would take a step back. The Ranger’s coaching staff asked Skjei to do something he had never done before at the NHL level and he had a trial by fire. Learning on the fly can be effective, but on a bad team, it can stunt growth.
The future
In the past, Skjei was at his best on the second pair with a shot suppressor as a defensive partner. A shot suppressor enables Skjei to take more chances in the offensive zone without compromising the team’s ability to get back and defend. So, if Brendan Smith can return to form for this season, pairing him with Skjei could fix the issue.
Even if Skjei proves unable to play on the top defensive pairing over time, he can still be of great use. Quality NHL teams role out at least two if not three good defensive pairs on a nightly basis. The Nashville Predators and Tampa Bay Lightning have absurd top threes. Nashville roles with P.K. Subban, Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis while the Lightning have Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh, and Anton Stralman.
The Rangers likely still need an additional top pair defenseman before the team returns to the postseason. Having a high end second pair defenseman for the future will help give the team structure. Letting Skjei be comfortable instead of throwing him to the wolves, will help his growth over time.
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New York has a season to play with as the team works on its rebuild. A trial run of Skjei on the first pair for some of the season with Kevin Shattenkirk is likely how this season starts. Having a high end second pair defenseman is a preferable choice to having a low end first pair defenseman.