New York Rangers: Brady Skjei contract extension was a necessary risk

New York Rangers General Manager Jeff Gorton took a necessary risk in signing 24 year old restricted free agent to a six year extension worth $5.25 million per season.

The balancing act of the modern NHL features 31 general managers all trying to outsmart each other. Constructing a roster that can compete on a nightly basis is not as easy as just writing checks to the best players available.

Following the implementation of the salary cap for the 2005 season, the league has little room for error.

With the way the league’s current salary structure works and the market for talent, there is an element of risk in every contract. Some teams operate on other planets in the case of talent evaluation which can make salaries even trickier to compare.

For example, the Washington Capitals felt that locking up forward Tom Wilson to a six year, $31 million dollar deal was necessary.

While on the other hand, some teams look at the Wilson deal as a cautionary tale. On the right team a player of Wilson’s ilk would only serve as fodder for criticism. On the Capitals, he’s a cult hero for injuring people behind play.

As time passes, the Capitals will regret giving Wilson that extension because of the cost down the line. In year one or two Wilson may be worth it for his particular brand of hockey. But, by year four, his high flying style will take its toll.

In the case of Jeff Gorton and the New York Rangers, the front office has done a solid job of keeping risk low and the future clear.

The near future

In the realm of salary and the futures, the team is in pretty good shape. Aside from the outright dreadful Marc Staal deal, which still has three more years, the Rangers have no bad contracts. The team may end up having to bite the bullet on Staal and buying out the veteran defenseman before his contract expires.

As of the moment, the Rangers only have two players signed beyond the 2020-2021 season. Those two players, Mika Zibanejad and Skjei represent key parts to an eventual contender.

By then, both players will be in their respective primes and at their peaks as players. In addition to both players being good at their specific roles, both are on outstanding contracts.

Getting a number one center and a quality top four defenseman for less than $11 million is good business.

Now, the important thing to note is that the Ranger’s front office was willing to take risks on both Skjei and Zibanejad. Although both have had strong seasons with the team, there is always risk in signing players to long term deals when they are still under team control.

Salary structure

In every salary cap sport their is a clear disparity in power that is skewed towards the franchises. The salary cap artificially depresses player wages and forces out players at a younger age.

When a player is drafted, they sign a three year entry level contract for less than $1 million per year. Compared to baseball in which the signing bonus alone can exceed $1 million for high draft picks, it is clear that hockey players are at a disadvantage.

Following that first entry level contract, a player is under team control as a restricted free agent until they have seven years of service in the NHL player’s association or turn 27 years old.

As a restricted free agent, other teams can only make offers if they are willing to sign an offer sheet. An offer sheet is extremely punitive to discourage G.Ms from signing restricted free agents. These offer sheets require compensation based on a player’s salary.

Being that it takes so long for a player to reach unrestricted free agency, it makes their starting price even higher. In many cases, when a player reaches UFA status, they will only have one shot at a long term high paying contract.

That is why the starting point for elite talent has jumped up to ten million per season in the past few years.

Bridge to nowhere

Before a player reaches UFA status, a team has a choice to make regarding the player’s RFA contract. Typically, a team will give a player short term deals for one or two years at market value of the player.

These are referred to as bridge deals because they bridge a player from RFA to UFA status. Vladislav Namestnikov’s two year $4.5 million per season contract is a textbook example of a bridge deal.

These contracts are a risk because if a player has a breakout season, they will drastically increase their market value and could price themselves out of a team’s range. That is why teams have to choose between taking the risk of giving young guys long term deals and pay a premium price for extra years on a deal.

In essence, a team is slightly overpaying a player because the team is taking away a player’s chance of getting a big pay day as an UFA. The Rangers signed Ryan McDonagh to a four year $4.75 million per season extension when he was 24 years old.

This was a smart risk because McDonagh made the jump from promising talent to number one defenseman. The deal was way below McDonagh’s value on the open market because it was signed early in his career.

Slim Skjedi

Now, in regards to Skjei, the Rangers have had two different versions of the same player. Rookie Skjei played a highly sheltered role in low leverage situations and thrived. In addition to having an ideal role, the former Minnesota Golden Gopher also had an elite shot suppressor, Brendan Smith, as a defensive partner.

This past season, Skjei had an uneven season in which he struggled once he was asked to play a bigger role. Making the jump from playing on the third pair during his rookie season to the top pair following the McDonagh trade proved to be too tall a challenge. It did not help that the Rangers as a whole were a terrible and disjointed team, but Skjei repeatedly made the same mistakes.

The Skjei extension is a necessary risk based on the good the team has seen. If Skjei can return to form and play like he did as a rookie, the Rangers will have gotten a steal of a contract for a top four defenseman. If the team can acquire a true number one, Skjei can slide down to the second pair and give the team a great top four.

In today’s NHL, the quality teams roll with multiple pairs that can be deployed in any situation. At his best, Skjei has the potential to be a number one defenseman. In the absolute worst case scenario, the Rangers have a top four defenseman with offensive upside on a reasonable contract. The team needed to take the chance to save money down the line.

It’s good practice to sign high upside RFAs to long term deals early on. The Predators gave Roman Josi a seven year deal worth just $4 million per season. Over the course of that contract Josi developed into one of the best defenseman in the entire league. Hopefully for the Rangers, Skjei blossoms into the defenseman he looked like as a rookie.