The New York Rangers and restricted free agent forward Kevin Hayes agreeing to only a one year deal means he is likely not in the team’s long term future.
In the grand scheme of things, Kevin Hayes has been an absolute steal for the New York Rangers. The team snuck Hayes away from his draft team, the Chicago Blackhawks, after the center’s draft rights had expired. As essentially a free agent following his senior season at Boston College, Hayes had his pick of NHL franchises to sign with. The former BC Eagle chose the Rangers who were fresh off a loss in the Stanley Cup final in part due to a dearth of talent at the center position.
In each of Hayes’ four seasons as a pro with the Rangers, he has gotten progressively better in spite of a lack of clarity. As a rookie, the center was given a highly sheltered role and led the entire NHL in even strength assists. As a sophomore, Hayes hit a bit of a wall in his development and his point totals and overall quality of play dipped.
But, in the following two seasons, Hayes was shoehorned into being an above average checking line center. By the end of this past season, the center was arguably the team’s best forward on a nightly basis. The issue for Hayes has always been a matter of putting all of the aspects of his game together for a sustained period of time.
In spite of Hayes’ clear development into a top echelon defensive center, the Rangers couldn’t pull the trigger on a long term extension. According to Larry Brooks of the New York Post, Hayes would not accept a two year deal with the team.
Rangers would have been happy to sign Hayes for two years. Hayes, not so much. https://t.co/WzHbDY4Gq5
— Larry Brooks (@NYP_Brooksie) July 31, 2018
The reality of the situation
If Brooks’ tweet is accurate, that means Hayes probably asked for a long term deal similar to what Brady Skjei got last week. By all accounts, Hayes has loved his time with the Rangers, in fact, he was so happy that he survived both days of this year’s draft still on the team, he tweeted a link to a scene from “The Wolf of Wall Street.” In the scene, the main character, Jordan Belfort, yells to his staff at his financial firm “I’m not leaving.”
In all likelihood, Hayes accepting a one year contract means one of two very different things. Either Rangers G.M Jeff Gorton wants to see the forward put it all together and will be given every chance to produce at 65 point season clip or, Hayes is trade bait. In terms of asset management, only signing Hayes to a one year deal is a true gamble.
These type of contracts which are referred to as “bridge deals,” can cost a team significantly more money. If Hayes absolutely kills it next season and flirts with 70 points, he could easily command north of $6 million as an unrestricted free agent. That figure would be substantially more than what the Rangers and Hayes could have agreed to this summer.
The future
What Gorton’s handling of the Hayes situation tells the hockey world is that the Rangers are in this for the long haul. New York’s front office is putting a priority in being as financially flexible as possible for the long term. That means being smart as possible in keeping money free, not skimping on money to save.
For example, Gorton did not have to trade Derek Stepan during the summer of 2017. Coming off of a typical Stepan season in which he posted 55 points while drawing the tough defensive assignments, he was due for a no trade clause to kick in on July 1. With Gorton’s crosshairs set on free agent defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk, the G.M traded Stepan to free up salary.
Now, with a similar situation in which Hayes will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, he will probably be traded before the deadline. This line of thinking that Hayes was not worth a long term investment at the moment means that the front office is confident in the team’s prospects at the position.
Are the kids gonna be alright?
Aside from Mika Zibanejad, who is signed through the 2021-2022 season, the team has control over Lias Andersson, Filip Chytil and Brett Howden. Of those three prospects, Chytil and Andersson figure to get some NHL time during this upcoming season. Whether or not at the center position will be a subject for a later date, but they are expected to contribute.
In essence, Gorton’s line of thinking is why would he sign Hayes to a long term deal when he has four centers already, and only one of the others is going to crack the top six. Paying Hayes north of $5.5 million per season to serve as a third line center is economically inefficient. With so many other areas of the roster in need of fixing, that money could be going elsewhere.
Weirdly enough, the front office is putting themselves in something of a paradox. The team is not asking for a lot from either Chytil or Andersson right away. Neither played more than a handful of games as 18 year olds even though there were roster spots available following the deadline. However, in the long term, expecting either Chytil or Andersson to eventually replace what Hayes does so well may be too much to ask.
The Rangers are going to take a lot of time to fix, the team lacks anything resembling a defense, features a meh top nine group of forwards and has a goaltender in the twilight of his career. If I know anything about the Rangers as an organization, they will probably illogically make the playoffs because it would be to the team’s detriment.