New York Rangers: How much can Henrik Lundqvist do on a bad team?

The New York Rangers are asking Henrik Lundqvist to play in the twilight of his career with the worst team he’s ever had in front of him. How much can New York expect from its future Hall of Fame goaltender?

In designing an NHL roster, a team’s general manager has to put an emphasis on certain aspects. Typically, a team can afford to have pricey personnel at two out of three of forwards, goaltending and defense. In the case of the New York Rangers, then General Manager Glen Sather signed Henrik Lundqvist to a seven year deal worth $8.5 million per season.

Back during the 2013-2014 season when this deal was agreed to, the Rangers were a team built through the back end. The team’s depth from top to bottom pushed them to the Stanley Cup final. In extending Lundqvist for the following seven seasons, the team ensured that the goaltender would be the fix for most of the in house problems.

The conventional logic surrounding the long term extension was that elite goaltending is hard to come by. With a player of Lundqvist’s caliber in between the pipes, a team can win on any given night. As the team started to collapse around the goaltender, the front office did not adapt quick enough. That is why Lundqvist has been forced to deal with outright horrendous defense in front of him for the past two seasons.

Now, with little hope of an improvement this season, Lundqvist is faced with the toughest task of his professional career: Survive a rebuild and hope his skills haven’t diminished too much by the time the team is ready to compete again.

Comparables

There is no exact formula to figure out how Lundqvist will play this season. For this type of analysis, similar situations serve as a baseline for comparison. Being that truly elite goaltending is far and few between there are only a handful of examples to draw upon.

First, with the Florida Panthers, 38 year old Roberto Luongo suffered behind a mediocre team that won 44 games this past season. The two time Olympic gold medalist posted an 18 and 11 record in 35 starts as he struggled through a campaign mired in injury. In the games he did play, Luongo posted a .929 save percentage, a 2.47 goals against average and three shutouts. So, the veteran proves that a goaltender can remain effective past age 35. Although Luongo suffered from an injury, when he did play, he was a net positive for the Panthers.

The other comparison for an aging elite goaltender behind a mediocre team is Lundqvist’s closest contemporary, Martin Brodeur. In his last effective season as a pro on a pretty average Devils team, Brodeur posted a .901 save percentage, 2.51 goals against average in 39 starts. This is the negative end of the spectrum, but it should be noted that Brodeur was 41 years old.

These are two ends of the spectrum, based on the team Lundqvist has in front of him, he will likely fall somewhere between the two.

Prediction

It is difficult to predict exactly how Lundqvist will preform this upcoming season because so little is known about the final roster. In addition to the team in front of the Swede, there is no set backup goaltender. Based on who David Quinn decides to keep on as the backup, will ultimately play a factor in Lundqvist’s workload.

If the team’s backup is Alexandar Georgiev, Lundqvist can expect a lighter workload as the team determines what it has in the 22 year old. This past season, Georgiev managed to hold his own with an outright atrocious team in front of him. But, in regards to Lundqvist, the Rangers will need to find the right workload.

Being that the team has no expectation of making the postseason there is no need to work Lundqvist as hard as last season. Something in the realm of 45 to 50 starts would make sense to not burn the goaltender out. By the end of this past season, the team in front of him had all but given up and left him to get peppered to the point of frustration. It is not easy for a player of Lundqvist’s caliber to simply accept losing as the new norm.

For as good of a player as Lundqvist is, there were simply too many mistakes in front of him to overcome this past year. The goaltender was left to stand on his head on a nightly basis to make up for the horrific defense in front of him. With a healthy Kevin Shattenkirk returning to the Ranger’s lineup this season, the defense should improve.

If Lundqvist can bump his save percentage from .915 up to .920 and dip his goals against average by two tenths or so, the Swede will carry the team by himself. There were points this past season where Lundqvist was the only player giving a noticeable effort. If he can slightly improve his statistics, the New York Rangers may sneakily be better than expected.