New York Rangers: The lone scenario to be in the playoff hunt

The New York Rangers are expected to finish in the bottom ten of the entire NHL. However, hockey is played on ice and not on a spreadsheet, so there is a scenario in which the team could stay in the hunt.

Anytime a team goes into a season with pretty much nothing in the way of expectation, two vastly different scenarios can play out. First, there is the a team is what the expectations say they are. It is not hard to imagine the Rangers defense hindering their ability to hang in games with good teams on most nights. On the other hand, the Rangers could exceed expectations through their forward depth.

Take the 2017-2018 season for example when it comes to expectations. Going into the fresh season, the team added Kevin Shattenkirk and expected to be a serious contender in the Eastern Conference. However, a combination of injury problems and regression to the mean made the Rangers the last place team in the Metropolitan Division.

So, the inverse for this season would be staying in the mix for a playoff spot in spite of an outright terrible defense. There are ways to mask defensive inefficiencies through both style of play and personnel choices. Although it is difficult, there are teams that make the playoffs with mediocre goal differentials.

There are a handful of things that the Rangers can do to stay in the hunt if things break right for them.

Regression to the mean

The biggest thing that the Rangers have going for them is that they had a handful of players struggle to play up to their career averages. While a player like Brady Skjei had a negative regression to the mean this past season, there are a handful of players that could have a positive regression. So in a nutshell, this can be boiled down to the team cannot be possibly be as bad as they were last season.

The way to think about mean performance are things that come down to percentages and chance. Things like winning 50/50 pucks, shooting percentage and injuries all come down to chance. No matter how careful a player is or hard they work out, these things can be out of their control. Chris Kreider was an athlete in the prime of his athletic career but developed a blood clot in his right arm. That is simply something out of Kreider’s control that a positive correction will fix.

There are a few candidates: Kevin Shattenkirk, Mika Zibanejad, Kreider and Skjei for a positive regression. As long as Zibanejad can stay healthy and not suffer a major injury, he is primed for a career high in points. In both of his seasons as a Ranger, the Swede has suffered a major injury, a broken tibia and a concussion have limited his production being that both injuries take time to get over even after he returned to the lineup.

Then there are both Shattenkirk and Kreider coming off of major injuries. By all accounts, Kreider is the same player he was before the clot and figures to have as good a chance as any to finally crack the 30 goal ceiling. Then, when it comes to the New Rochelle native, the defenseman started off solid last season, but his torn meniscus caught up with him. With a healthy Shattenkirk, the play of Skjei will also improve.

What’s around them

Ultimately, the positive regression for a handful of players will not be enough to get the team in the playoff hunt. The defense is simply too poor as a whole for the forwards to compensate with above average play. The Metropolitan Division was a knife fight last season with five teams qualifying for the playoffs out of the division. In addition to the five teams that made the playoffs, the Carolina Hurricanes were also just a few points back of the second wild card.

While the closeness in the standings may not make the metro the best division in the NHL, it does make it the division with the most parity. This presents an opportunity in which the good teams beat up on each other enough to keep the Rangers in the race. To be technical, the Rangers were technically still alive for the playoffs up until April 4th against the New York Islanders.

This is where the Rangers can take advantage of the Metropolitan Division being a blood bath. Being that the Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers figure to be in a fight for first place, there will be opportunity for the Rangers to take advantage of the grind. New York has nothing to play for this season which gives them the effect of playing with house money. If the team stinks, everything will be okay because they are not expected to be. However, if the team finds the right mix early and hangs around in the hunt, they could run wild.

The kids are alright

The other factor at play for the Rangers is the unpredictability of young players. There is a scenario in which Lias Andersson, Filip Chytil and at least one more prospect make the roster out of training camp. In this situation, one of the two would move to the wing and have the opportunity to ride shotgun with Hayes and Mats Zuccarello. In that situation, either Chytil or Andersson would have the chance to post a strong rookie season.

Aside from Chytil and Andersson, the best chance for a prospect to make the team comes on the Ranger’s blue line. As the unit figures to be amongst the worst in the league, there should be a chance for guys like Ryan Lindgren or Libor Hajek to make the team out of camp. If they are not able to make the team, they should at least be able to push one of the team’s veterans during the preseason.

If any of the prospects can jump into the lineup and make an immediate impact, that would be an unexpected positive. A 50 point season from Chytil would go a long way in helping the team exceed expectations and stick around in the hunt.

The Rangers are a long shot for the postseason, however, if they get the right mix of positive regression, a top heavy division and a breakout season from a prospect, they could at least stay in the hunt until the end.