At a fundamental level, the NHL is about developing talent that can be sustained for a period of time. The New York Rangers are a franchise in the midst of procuring young talent and banking on their ability to develop.
The life cycle of an NHL player is a fascinating analysis of just how ruthless the sport is. A franchise drafts a star eyed 17 or 18 year old every June during the entry draft, and by simple rules of probability, not every draft pick can pan out. The New York Rangers have been a mixed bag recently in terms of their draft history. The team has had some great picks like Brady Skjei and Chris Kreider but there have also been flops like Dylan McIlrath and Ryan Gropp.
The basic idea of the draft is to acquire as much young talent as possible in hopes that one of the draft picks will turn into something special as a player. That is why the Rangers sold off their expiring assets at the deadline, they needed to acquire as many draft picks as possible in hopes that one would eventually turn into an elite player.
That is all the draft is, general managers and scouting departments going to the casino with their owner’s money. Some games at the casino have better odds than others. Think of draft picks as different games within the imaginary casino. The sports book within a casino would be the equivalent of a first round pick. This has a good chance of winning money if the proper research is done. The middle rounds of the draft would be like table games or craps. There is some strategy to playing the game(s) but it can only take someone so far. Then lastly, fifth round picks or later would be the equivalent of a slot machine, purely for those looking for an adrenaline rush on a long shot.
Recently, the Vancouver Canucks traded 24 year old forward Hunter Shinkaruk to the Montreal Canadiens for 23 year old forward Kerby Rychel. In swapping the forwards, both organizations have essentially admitted that they have flamed out as prospects and are change of scenery guys.
The aging process
The average NHL player is 27 years old going into the 2018-2019 NHL season according to the Athletic. However, by age 27, a player has already played professional hockey for more than eight seasons. For the most part, players are drafted at some point between age 18 and 22. If a player plays NCAA hockey or in Europe, they are on a slightly different timeline.
For the average teenager who rides a bus across the barren wasteland of Western Canada, the NHL is the ultimate dream. As for getting to the show, the path varies following the draft. The elite players in a draft class will make the jump directly to the NHL at 18 or 19 years old and try to sink or swim right away. Or, if their organization feels like they need more experience or to develop physically they will be sent to the AHL or play as an overage in junior hockey.
Once a player cracks an NHL roster, they have a leash with varying degrees of length. The higher a pick that a prospect is, the longer the leash they will get. When a team uses a high draft pick on a prospect, they are staking their future on an 18 year old. Think of it like this, if a G.M. takes someone with the number one overall pick, that is the executive’s stamp of approval. If the pick flops, it reflects poorly on the G.M. and can get him fired.
That is why a high draft pick will be given every opportunity to succeed at the NHL level. If a player goes in the first round they will have a considerably longer shelf life than those who go later in the draft. If a team was willing to draft a player in the first round, the player must’ve shown something as an amateur that was worth staking their job on.
Entry level
Once a player has firmly cemented who they are as a player in terms of style and skillset, they have a relatively consistent pattern. The first year of who a player actually is as a pro is typically age 23 or 24. This is after a few seasons of development and when the player should be coming into their own. Once they get into a groove, the player typically rises in terms of production until about age 27.
Once a player hits age 27, they have entered their athletic prime. This age is relatively consistent across the four major sports, and it is when production tends to level off. Coincidentally, this is also the age when a player can hit unrestricted free agency for the first time unless they have reached seven years of NHL service earlier.
From age 27 to 30 is typically the start of the decline physically. While a player will still produce at a high level, their production typically tends to dip. After age 30, there are a few outliers, but for the most part, production falls off a cliff. In terms of wins above replacement, the drop off from age 30 to age 35 is nearly half a win above replacement. That is fairly significant considering that at age 25, the improvement in WAR is more than one. So basically, by age 35, if a player is still in the league, they are drastically dropping off in terms of production.
Prospect fortune
The Rangers front office has staked their long term future on a rebuild. Drafting a player is easy, a G.M. turns to their team’s director of scouting and player personnel and says “who are we taking?” The two executives in charge of player scouting tell the G.M. a name, the prospect’s name is written on a card and the card is walked up to a stage.
But, after the name is read off of the card is where G.M’s get fired. Integrating a prospect into a team’s plan is the most important part on the front office side of things. When a prospect is drafted, the team needs to put that player in a position to succeed from the very beginning. That is why it is so important that a team not rush them along in hopes of winning their sports book ticket right away.
Sure, Filip Chytil looks great in flashes, but at only 19 years old, there is still plenty of time for him to develop into a better player. Being that the Rangers don’t have a window for contention any time soon, there is no need to rush their prospects along. The age where teams begin to have an issue is 22. That is the age where a player needs to have stuck at the NHL level or their team will begin to consider them a depreciating asset.
The obvious player to point out for the Rangers is defenseman Tony DeAngelo. Although the New Jersey native is a former first round pick, he has failed to truly stick at the NHL level. In addition to his shortcomings at the NHL level, DeAngelo has character issues that have gotten him traded twice before he turned 22. When two teams quickly give up on a player that was drafted 19 overall, that should be setting off alarm bells.
A prospect becomes a bust if they haven’t stuck at the NHL level by age 22. Cutting DeAngelo a break for his injury and the Ranger’s total disarray as a team this past season is reasonable, but if the defenseman does not prove himself NHL worthy, he is creeping into bust territory.