New York Rangers: Looking at Ryan Spooner through an analytical lens

The New York Rangers re-signed Ryan Spooner to a two year deal after his acquisition at the trade deadline last season. We’ll take a look under the hood to determine if he should factor into the team’s long-term plans.

Many, myself included, did not think much of Ryan Spooner’s inclusion in the return for Rick Nash when the New York Rangers sent him to the Boston Bruins. Spooner then proceeded to go on a tear with his new team, tallying 16 points in his 20 games with the Rangers.

Many, myself included, expected one of Spooner or Vladislav Namestnikov (acquired from the Tampa Bay Lightning at the trade deadline) to be traded again during the summer. With that assumption, discussion swirled regarding which player the Rangers should keep.

Instead, the Rangers decided to punt on that decision, re-signing both to identical 2 year deals.

Spooner’s production and seemingly instant chemistry with his linemates are the arguments for keeping him. In addition, at 26, while not necessarily that young anymore, is expected to still be an effective player in three or four seasons when the team should be competitive again.

However, do his underlying numbers justify the Rangers holding onto him for longer than just this short-term deal?

Boxcar Stats

Spooner had his best statistical season, on a points per game basis, last season. He played only a few games in October before being sidelined a month with injury. Upon his return he went on a bit of a tear.

At the time he was traded to the Rangers, Spooner had netted nine goals and 25 points in 39 games for the Bruins. As mentioned above, he would score his next 16 points (four goals) in 20 games with the Rangers.

He tied his career high in goals with 13 on the season and finished with 41 points in 59 games played.

If any skepticism is to be drawn from these numbers alone it is that his shooting percentage was 12.1%, a fair bit higher than his career average of 8.4% but not absurdly so.

On the other hand, his powerplay production dropped, Spooner only had one powerplay goal (with Boston) and eight powerplay points. This was a sharp drop from posting seasons of 18 and 17 powerplay points the two preceding seasons.

However, conversely, this means that his even strength production increased. 29 of his 41 points were scored 5 on 5. Unfortunately, only 19 of them primary points (per CorsicaHockey.com).

His time on ice stayed fairly consistent with his past few seasons at 15:18 TOI/game.

As productive as Spooner was as a Ranger, how well did he drive play, taking a look at some advanced or “fancy” stats can help determine that.

Advanced Stats

Using the terrific NaturalStatTrick.com, let’s take a look at how Spooner performed last season. There are a few caveats, the main one is that he split the season between the Bruins and Rangers. The former was a playoff team and the fourth best regular season team. The Rangers were a mess and also beginning their rebuild as Spooner joined the team.

Also, as is common with many statistical analyses/overviews in hockey, this is a small sample size to work with. That’s to say that they should be taken as a reference but not gospel.

The following statistics are for Spooner’s 5v5 play druing last season.

(Quick Primer: The ‘C’ in ‘CF%’ for Corsi aka shot attempts. Moving left to right, ‘SC’ is Scoring Chances, ‘G’ is Goals, and ‘HDC’ is High Danger scoring Chances, ‘PDO’ is the combination of on-ice shooting% and save%. The ‘%’ means for that stat, its percentage out of all such events. For example: “CF%” means all shot attempts for the player’s team when he’s on the ice out of all shot attempts when he’s on the ice. The ‘/60’ means that particular stat is over 60 minutes of ice time. The ‘Rel’ is short for Relative: Relative Statistics are advanced statistics that allow us to see how much of an impact a player makes, compared to his teammates. The stats listed are the difference between when the player is on the ice versus when he is not.)

Looking at the table above, this is where things get concerning. While nearly all of his possession dropped when he moved to the Rangers, this was not a surprise given how terrible of a possession team they were. (Per NaturalStatTrick, the Rangers ranked dead last in 5v5 CF% at 45.92% while the Bruins finished second with 53.72%).

However, taking a look at the relative stats is where the problem lies. In Boston, Spooner was more or less carrying his own weight from a possession standpoint, while excelling in outscoring the opposition. The latter was no doubt due to his higher shooting percentage in Boston, 12.9%, than in New York, 10.8%. That dip is reflected in his PDO.

Continuing to look at his relative stats during his time on the Rangers, Spooner was a significantly worse possession player compare to the team without him. However, it must be noted that Spooner went from playing with Jake DeBrusk and David Krejci on the Bruins’ second line to playing with a smorgasbord of Rangers players, mainly on the third line.

One final note of interest is that Spooner’s individual scoring chances did not change much at all, so it appears that he continued to make offensive opportunities despite the Rangers poorer possession.

What’s the plan for Spoonman?

In Spooner’s case, a two-year deal is probably exactly right. There are troubling trends with his underlying numbers that suggest his tour de force with the Rangers was an unsustainable hot streak. Furthermore, we don’t know how he will be utilized or deployed under David Quinn.

Spooner has stated that he’d like to play center but that position is already quite crowded on the depth chart. However, Quinn will put him in the right position and with the right linemates to take the most advantage of his skillset. Hopefully, that, along with some stability will lead to him having another 40+ point season.

Much like Namestnikov, the Rangers have flexibility when it comes to deciding Spooner’s fate. He’s not too old to still be on the team when the Stanley Cup window opens again. On the other hand, he would also be an attractive trade deadline piece for a contender next season or the one after. Next season will be all about seeing exactly what they have in Ryan Spooner, that will determine his ultimate fate with the team.