Whenever a player is considered a throw in on a trade, it can be hard to understand what their perception should be. The New York Rangers acquired Vladislav Namestnikov at last year’s trade deadline as part of a larger deal and the forward struggled to make much of an impact in 19 games.
Swinging a deal at the trade deadline is about as exciting as life gets for an NHL general manager. Trying not to tip your hand while also trying to wiggle out a good enough deal for both sides that another person you compete with is willing to agree to it is about a unique experience as possible. This past season, New York Ranger’s General Manager Jeff Gorton traded a franchise cornerstone, Ryan McDonagh for prospects and draft picks. The throw in was getting Namestnikov from Tampa Bay for the soon to be restricted free agent J.T. Miller.
Asking a player to totally change what they have been doing for the first several months of a NHL season is a jarring task. Namestnikov went from riding shotgun on the best line in the NHL alongside Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov to playing with forwards like Jimmy Vesey and Cody McLeod. Going from playing with two consensus top 15 players in the entire league to average or below average NHL players is a tall order.
To this point in his NHL career, Namestnikov has shown flashes of a quality player that is slightly above average at most aspects of the game. In Tampa Bay, the forward was never asked to be a world beater, but a key cog in a well run machine. Being that the Rangers last season were a dumpster fire rolling down a high way, that key cog was rendered a bystander.
Namestnikov has proven himself an above average NHL player through a variety of measures and can serve as a treading water piece during a rebuild.
Conventional stats and narrative
As the number 27 overall pick in the 2011 NHL draft, Namestnikov had elite talent at the amateur level. The forward’s eliteprospects.com profile reads:
"“A very skilled offensive center. A reliable finisher with an impressive wrist shot. A good passer and playmaker. An excellent skater. Takes advantage of open space very well. Solid two-way. Needs to gain strength.”"
In his draft year, the forward posted 71 points in 63 games for the London Knights of the OHL. This team also featured future NHL players like Detroit Red Wings forward Andreas Athanasiou, Montreal Canadiens forward Max Domi and San Jose Sharks forward Chris Tierney. Of all the aforementioned players, Namestnikov led the team.
As a quality player on an elite OHL team with a history of churning out good NHL players, the track record was their from a young age. Following his amateur hockey, Namestnikov spent the following three seasons from 2012-2015 shuttling back and forth between the NHL and the Lightning’s AHL affiliate, the Syracuse Crunch.
NHL level
Following his three season stretch of keeping commercial airlines in business, Namestnikov finally broke through and played 80 games during the 2015-2016 season. In his first full year, the forward posted 35 points while playing a meager 14:17 per night. Part of the issue for the Russian was the shear level of top to bottom talent on the Lightning roster. The team’s depth kept him in a limited checking line type of role.
As the Lightning were slowly forced into picking and choosing what pieces to keep for their window of contention, Namestnikov was able to rise up the lineup into a larger role. The forward’s minutes have gone up every single season as a pro until he was traded to the Rangers. There are aspects of Namestnikov’s game that fuel the idea that he produces above his skill level.
First, there is his shooting percentage which for his career is at 12.9% which is more than three whole percentage points higher than the NHL average of 9.1%. According to Naturalstatrick.com, Namestnikov’s average four high danger scoring chances per 60 minutes of ice time. So on a nightly basis, the forward was averaging about one and a half high quality scoring chances which can attribute to his above average shooting percentage. If a shot is high danger, that means it is a more difficult shot for a goaltender to save and more likely to be a goal.
In addition to the forward’s high shooting percentage, he is also considered to be a “lucky,” player according to PDO%. PDO% is a stat which measures a player’s puck luck over the course of a season through a combination of two stats. PDO% takes a player’s individual shooting percentage and adds it to his goaltender’s save percentage to quantify a player’s luck. Being that the Russian has an above average shooting percentage and the Lightning have good goaltending, Namestnikov ranks amongst the highest in the NHL in PDO%.
An average player has a PDO% of 100 being that the average shooting percentage is 9.1% and the average save percentage is .910 which comes out to 100. For Namestnikov’s career he checks in at 101.%. It is worth noting that in the forward’s 20 games as a Ranger this past season, his PDO% was more than three whole percentage points lower than his career average.
What can he reach?
For all intents and purposes, Namestnikov is a place holder for Gorton as the G.M. attempts to rebuild the Rangers. The team needs to have warm bodies to put on the ice at Madison Square Garden until the reinforcements down on the farm are ready. Expecting the level of production that Namestnikov had the first half of last season is totally unrealistic based on the different situations.
In Tampa Bay the forward was playing on the team’s top line with the two best players on the entire team. It is no wonder that Namestnikov was able to post 44 points in 62 games. But, just because he can’t produce at .75 points per game clip does not mean he cannot be useful. There is a way in which the Rangers can get two useful seasons out of the forward.
First, New York needs to put Namestnikov in a position to use the strengths of his game. Although not as good as the Ranger’s other centers the Russian is strong at maintaining possession of the puck. In today’s NHL, a player being able to successfully enter the offensive zone without having to dump the puck in is a net positive. Maintaining control of the puck allows the player’s teammates to set up into their offensive zone scheme and keep the defense on its heels.
The Rangers can use Namestnikov in a way that takes advantage of his possession strengths. In all likelihood, the forward does not figure into the front office’s plans beyond the length of his two year contract. There are forwards in the pipeline who will need the spot more, but for now, Namestnikov can be a more than adequate piece.
On a rebuilding team having a forward in the bottom six that is capable of posting 40 points in a season is a true luxury. In fact, the team’s forward depth is good enough that it will prevent them from being a bottom five team in the entire league this upcoming season.
Expect something in the neighborhood of 40 points this season from Namestnikov. It could be a shade higher or lower depending on a few factors like special teams time or line mates, but players at age 25 typically don’t make crazy jumps in either direction in terms of productivity.