When the New York Rangers signed Brady Skjei to his new contract, there was a feeling that it was too much. With Skjei locked up for the next six years, putting the deal into perspective might help to assuage any concerns about it
On July 28th, 2018, the New York Rangers took care of business with regards to Brady Skjei by signing the young defenseman to a six year, $31.5 million contract. Some people view this as an over-payment for a player who has yet to really prove himself at an NHL level. I think it’s important to provide some context to the deal, which I believe is fair for both sides.
Going into the 2017-18 season, Skjei looked to be part of a promising top-four on a Rangers defense, that on paper, looked to be one of the league’s better defensive corps.
Then everything went sideways.
Brendan Smith was a shadow of his former self when training camp broke. Kevin Shattenkirk played on one leg before he was shut down for the season. Ryan McDonagh fought injuries and looked like age had started to catch up to him.
All of this, coupled with the team’s overall defensive ineptitude, forced Skjei to shoulder a much larger defensive burden than his rookie season. It was little surprise that his overall production dipped then, only scoring 25 points (four goals) in 82 games.
In a league where players are often evaluated by “what have you done for me lately?”, Skjei’s new contract raised a few eyebrows when the numbers came in. In an off-season where Matt Dumba (14 goals, 50 points in 82 games in 2017-18) was signed to a five year, $30 million contract and Noah Hanifan (10 goals, 32 points in 79 games in 2017-18) signed a six year, $29.7 million contract, Skjei’s deal was viewed as being an over-payment by comparison.
Another easy parallel to draw was to Ryan McDonagh’s expiring contract, signed coming off of his entry-level contract.
The McDonagh comparison
If the Skjei contract felt like deja-vu, it’s because there are a lot of similarities between it and the contract Ryan McDonagh signed with the Rangers when he was a restricted free agent.
McDonagh, like Skjei, was 24, coming off of his three year entry-level contract after playing college hockey. The contract was also six years and also included a 10 team no-trade clause for the last three years of the deal.
McDonagh’s contract was $28.2 million overall for a $4.7 million annual cap hit. Skjei’s $31.5 million deal works out to a $5.25 million cap hit.
There are two key points to make when comparing these two contracts.
The first is that McDonagh’s deal was signed back on July 8th, 2013, and back then, the NHL salary cap was $64.3 million. So, McDonagh’s contract utilized 7.31% of the Rangers’ total cap space.
Going into next season, the league’s salary cap is already up to $79.5 million, just five years later. Therefore, Skjei’s deal is only 6.60% of the Rangers cap.
While Skjei is getting paid more real dollars than McDonagh did, his contract’s financial impact on the team is notably better.
The second key point is that McDonagh’s contract was a steal almost from the moment he signed it as he became a bona fide number one defenseman. We still don’t know what Skjei’s ceiling is, but he, at worst, is a solid second-pairing defenseman. Since we expect him to be more than that, likely either a complementary first pairing defender or a top-tier second pairing blueliner, his deal is more than fair.
Paying for the future, not the past
I think another important aspect to focus on is this deal in the context of Skjei’s career.
Yes, he has only played two full NHL seasons and they were about as polar opposite as there can be. However, the Rangers’ front office has decided to put their faith in Skjei’s potential based on those performances.
Again, one only need to look at the McDonagh deal for an instance where this strategy succeeded for the Rangers. I’m not saying that Skjei will be the next McDonagh, but taking a calculated risk on his future growth and play, instead of his past performance, is exactly what the organization should have done.
That’s because one doesn’t need to look far to find recent examples where the Rangers did the exact opposite, to the detriment of the team:
- 2/28/2014: Dan Girardi (Age 29) – 6 years, $33 million total, $5.5 million cap hit, 8.55% of team’s cap
- 7/1/2014: Dan Boyle (Age 38) – 2 years, $9 million total, $4.5 million cap hit, 6.52% of team’s cap
- 1/18/2015: Marc Staal (Age 28) – 6 years, $34.2 million total, $5.7 million cap hit, 7.81% of team’s cap
In every instance, the front office was paying for these player’s past performances, their reputations, and their pedigrees. And none of them could be called “good” or “fair value” contracts.
Girardi was bought out in the 2017 offseason, Boyle retired after two mediocre seasons with the team (albeit leaving with a fiery rant) and the Staal contract is probably the team’s worst.
The Rangers did right by Skjei and themselves by betting on him, and yes he still has to prove them right, but his deal is not a disaster like those listed above.
The future is now
Skjei is now one of the team’s young veterans and with the signing of his new contract, an integral part of the team moving forward. I, like many, are optimistic that he will have a bounceback season under David Quinn’s coaching and tutelage. Additionally, he will hopefully play alongside a competent partner on a consistent basis.
Keep in mind that Skjei might still not produce like his rookie season, and that’s ok. He will still be learning a new team style and system and may have a new partner. He will also be expected to have more responsibilities on the ice, maybe even moreso than last season.
Whether he likes it or not, Skjei is the Rangers’ de facto number one left shot defenseman next season, with a contract to match. If his potential is a true number one defenseman and if he can reach that height in a few seasons, his contract will be as much of a steal as McDonagh’s.
(CapFriendly.com was consulted constantly when writing this article and all the contract information is courtesy of them)