The Anaheim Ducks received the devastating news that forward Corey Perry is going to be out five months after getting knee surgery. The New York Rangers have some interesting pieces.
Part of being a successful rebuild is knowing when to pounce on a team with little leverage. The Anaheim Ducks are a team that is on the verge of losing its window of contention. The team’s best players are reaching their age related regression and there has not been a Stanley Cup. The New York Rangers should look to swing a deal with a desperate team.
Last year at the deadline, New York made deals with the New Jersey Devils, Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning. All three of those were teams in the thick of the playoff race that needed more to sure up their lineup. If the Ducks don’t swing a trade to replace Perry’s production, they won’t be in a position to make a deadline trade.
While Perry is not the player he once was, just 49 points in 71 games last season, that is still a significant chunk of points. The Ducks may have young players on the cusp of breaking out in the lineup, but banking on prospect development is a risky proposition for a team that is supposed to be a contender.
The Rangers have several players that could serve as a Perry facsimile and bolster a lineup skin on scoring depth.
Who goes?
The trick to making this deal work for the Rangers is extracting reasonable value while not giving up anyone key to the team’s long term plan. This would mean that New York needs to have a vision for what the team will look like in a couple of years. The trade chips that the team has, Kevin Hayes, Mats Zuccarello, Ryan Spooner, Jimmy Vesey and Vladislav Namesntikov all need to be considered.
If the team values any of these chips for the team’s future, that decision needs to be made as soon as possible. Teams like the Ducks would give up future assets for a forward capable of contributing 40-50 points this season.
The Rangers would be much better off with a second and third round pick than they would be two more seasons of Namestnikov or Spooner. The team needs as much draft capital as possible going forward to make this rebuild work. That is why this past season was such a rousing success. The front office had ten draft picks in the first four rounds of the draft.
That is how teams successfully rebuild, through the use of draft picks to keep the team cost effective.
The cost
The going rate for a 40-50 point forward really does vary from year to year. The Minnesota Wild gave up a first, second and a conditional third round pick for Martin Hanzal at the 2017 trade deadline. That was a tremendous overpay for a forward that had only eclipsed the 40 point mark once in his entire career.
It is all about finding the right team that is desperate at the right time. Negotiating with another G.M. is a tango in leverage between two hyper competitive individuals. This is where getting the full value of a player comes into play.
Depending on which player the Ducks covet would determine the package the Rangers could get in return. If Anaheim is set on Zuccarello because he is only on a one year deal and he’d be a season long rental, New York could probably get either a first or a second and third. It’d be a small package but it’d make sense for both sides.
If it is another one of the forwards, the package would obviously change. Of the Rangers’ trade chips, the most valuable is Hayes because of the combination of age, production and potential. There is a serious chance that the Boston College alumni has yet to reach his full potential and is primed for an offensive explosion.
These are two teams in different places in terms of contention. The Ducks are a team running out of time to win with their current core of veterans. The Rangers are a young team looking towards the future with veteran pieces that would help other teams more than their own.