New York Rangers: What’s the flip side of the rebuilding coin?

The New York Rangers rebuilding era has not exactly gotten off to the greatest of starts. The antsy nature of the New York sports fan is being unrealistic and it shows.

If your idea of a rebuild was trading all of the New York Rangers’ expiring contracts and pooling together draft assets for one year, I have some bad news. The organization’s long-term strategy of going all in as a Stanley Cup contender had serious consequences. The key to developing institutional strength comes from finding cheap in-house replacements for marginal players.

The Detroit Red Wings made the playoffs 25 straight years because the franchise consistently integrated young talent that got better over time. The organization was able to replace Steve Yzerman with Pavel Datsyuk and Sergei Fedorov with Henrik Zetterberg. That level of talent development is the peak example of what good management can be.

In the case of the Rangers, there was no clear replacement for Ryan McDonagh or Derek Stepan. Instead, the coaching staff needed to integrate the pieces it had (Brady Skjei and Kevin Hayes) into roles they were not directly suited for. While Hayes has developed into a fine two-way center, Skjei still needs to take major steps to be a true McDonagh replacement.

So, let’s take a step back and consider what the alternative would look like.

Summer 2017

Rewinding back to the offseason of 2017, the Rangers were coming off a frustrating second-round loss to the Ottawa Senators. The team’s defense was so bad that it hindered the overall performance of the team. The forwards were playing well and the line was rolling out three successful lines.

But, the defense of McDonagh, Dan Girardi, Marc Staal, Nick Holden, Skjei and Brendan Smith were not enough to get by. The biggest issue being the lack of offensive contributions from the blue line. Chief amongst the problems was the dearth of explosiveness on the power play. With no quarterback, the unit often had five left-handed players on the ice at once.

Going into that summer, the Rangers had a clear mandate to improve the back end. This led to a series of moves that set up the team’s rebuild. Whether or not this was the initial intent is unknown, but ultimately what happened.

First, the team bought out the contract of Girardi. This freed up cap space and created a spot in the lineup for a top pair right-handed defenseman. Following up this move, general manager Jeff Gorton made the first transitional move. The G.M. traded Stepan and backup goaltender Antti Raanta for the seventh overall pick in the draft and prospect Anthony DeAngelo.

At face value, this looked like a half-baked attempt to cut cost while simultaneously getting the roster younger. The organization desperately needed a top ten draft pick and a prospect for the blue line. This was a pretty logical move at the time because it accomplished multiple things at once.

This trade also freed up the cap space that would be used to sign Shattenkirk. This was supposed to set up the core of a contending team which never came to fruition.

Deadline 18

This past trade deadline the front office went off of the deep end into the rebuilding pool. Trading away McDonagh, J.T. Miller, Rick Nash, Michael Grabner and Nick Holden was a dramatic shift. The move was an honest effort at accumulating assets for the future to help find a new core.

Ten draft picks, and a fistful of prospects is the recipe for an eventually good team. The logic being that draft picks are like lottery tickets and not all of them are going to hit. Being that certain picks have a greater chance of being successful, it places a higher value on a pick in the top ten because of the types of talent available in that range.

Since the Rangers traded away its number one defenseman, it’s best raw goal scorer and several depth pieces, logic dictated they needed replacements. That is what the current crop of prospects at the developmental or AHL level is trying to be.

The alternate timeline

Let’s say that the front office doesn’t decide to embark on a rebuild. They decide to run it back with the same crew for the 2017-2018 season with Alain Vigneault as the head coach and give them better injury luck. Instead of a clunky season that delves off into a tailspin, the Rangers probably stay in the mix.

It should be noted that New York was in the playoff hunt well into January and if it were not for the injuries to Chris Kreider and Shattenkirk, it could have been another early playoff exit. So, instead of getting a top ten pick, they pick around 19. This also means that Vigneault keeps his job for another year and talent development is put on the back burner.

If the 2017-2018 team makes the playoffs, it most certainly does not trade away any of the contributors at the deadline. This forces the team to make a pair of roster decisions in the summer. First, should Hayes or Miller get the long-term extension? Second, does the team just let Rick Nash walk away for nothing?

In addition to those choices, the Rangers only have one pick in each of the first three rounds instead of ten total. That means no Vitali Kravtsov or any guarantee of  K’Andre Miller or Nils Lundqvist. This would make the team’s future considerably bleaker.

This alternate timeline has the organization without Lias Andersson, or the 2018 offseason draft picks. Does this future sound any more enticing than riding out a bad season or two? An early postseason exit without any long-term direction for the franchise sounds like stagnation.

This alternate timeline would make the free fall to the bottom of the league more jarring because there would be no hope on the horizon. At least for now, there is light at the end of the tunnel.