New York Rangers: Despite a five goal explosion…scoring is still a big issue
By Steve Paulus
The Rangers are off to a mediocre start with a lack of scoring the primary reason. The team broke out with five goals against Florida. Can we expect to see them keep it up? Don’t hold your breath.
The New York Rangers scored five goals in a game for the second time this season. This was an aberration and it came against the third worst defensive team in the league. The Rangers’ offense is still sorely lacking.
In nine games, at even strength, they have scored all of 19 goals. They are averaging 2.56 goals per game, worst of any team in the Metropolitan Division and good for eighth from the bottom in the NHL. Their scoring stats are awful, yet they are averaging 33 shots per game, tenth best in the entire league and second best in the Division.
One major reason is their shooting percentage of 7.7%, much worse than the league average of 9.8%. Of the nine games that they have played, six have been one-goal games (empty net goals not counting). With even a slight increase in shooting percentage, the Rangers could have two more wins. Four more points and they are tied for first place in the Metropolitan Division.
New coach David Quinn has been exhorting the team to shoot whenever possible and to follow by crashing the net. It’s apparent that Quinn has come to the realization pretty quickly that he is coaching a team that is lacking in top goal-scoring skills and the only way to dent the net will be with “dirty” goals on rebounds and deflections.
The missing link
The sad fact is that the Rangers do not have an elite scorer on the roster. When they shipped off Rick Nash and Michael Grabner last season they lost two of their most potent goal scorers. This is nothing new.
Over the last five full seasons, the only Ranger to exceed 30 goals in a full season was Rick Nash when he scored 42 goals in 2014-15. In the same time, 122 NHL players have scored over 30 goals in a season. After Nash, the next highest total was Chris Kreider’s 28 goals in 2016-17. During that same five year period, 172 NHL players have scored as many goals as many or more than Kreider did.
The NHL does not keep statistics on breakaways, but if they did you can be sure that the Rangers success rate would be pretty bad. How many times this season alone have we seen a Ranger break in only to miss the net or be stopped by the goalie. The worst example was the three on the goalie in Buffalo that resulted in no goal. But whether it is Brett Howden, Jimmy Vesey or Jesper Fast, it seems as if there is not a gifted goal scorer in the bunch.
A look at shooting percentage
Is shooting percentage a measure of ability? Here are the career percentages for some of the top goal scorers in the NHL:
- Patrik Laine 17.3%
- Auston Matthews 16.9%
- Sydney Crosby 14.4%
- Nikita Kucherov 14.3%
- Connor McDavid 14.1%
- Evgeni Malkin 13.8%
- Vladimir Tarasenko 12.9%
- Alex Ovechkin 12.5%
Compare these career numbers for current Rangers.
- Jimmy Vesey 13.1%
- Chris Kreider 12.9%
- Kevin Hayes 12.9%
- Jesper Fast 12.6%
- Vlad Namestnikov 12.6%
- Pavel Buchnevich 12.0%
- Mika Zibanejad 11.3%
- Mats Zuccarello 10.4%
Tyler Seguin was the ONLY one of the top 30 goal scorers over the last two years to have a shooting percentage under 13%. He still scored 40 goals last season, on 335 shots (11.9%). In those same two years, the only Rangers who exceeded a 13% shooting percentage were Michael Grabner, J.T. Miller, Kevin Hayes and Kreider.
The Rangers do have shooters with good hands. In the Florida game Mika Zibanejad demonstrated that ability with two goals on five shots, but before that game, his shooting percentage was just 8.6%.
Kreider is also a goal scorer, but it is his speed more than his hands that make him a threat. Pavel Buchnevich, Vlad Namestnikov and Filip Chytil are all thought of as goal scorers but haven’t dented the twines yet. Mats Zuccarello has the potential to be a top goal scorer (look at his performance in shootouts), but his penchant for passing instead of shooting has hindered him. Perhaps under Quinn, that will change (in time for him to be traded at the deadline?).
What’s to come
It’s ironic that for years the Rangers were a pass-happy team, always looking for the perfect shot. It took Quinn just a couple of games to realize that a pass-happy team with no pure goal scorers will miss even with the perfect shot.
So, look for more games with high shot totals and a shortage of goals. Inevitably, there will be the few instances like the Florida game when the offense will break out, but more often than not, they will be stymied and will make backup goaltenders like David Rittich look like Vezina Trophy finalists.
Next. Does Buchnevich or Fast belong on the first line?. dark
The team needs to keep things simple and continue putting pucks on net. The team’s below league average shooting percentage will climb over the course of the season, it’s just a matter of getting there.