While this year’s New York Rangers team wasn’t expected to be amazing, they are definitely underperforming a bit, especially offensively. Would a top-heavy lineup help or hurt them?
The New York Rangers have not been great this year, which is something that fans and the team alike are not quite used to.
They are fifth worst in the league in wins (three) and have the second most amount of losses (seven). The team has the third-lowest point total in the league (seven) and the second fewest amount of regular plus overtime wins (two). If those stats aren’t concerning enough, their more detailed offensive stats are even worse.
The Rangers have the fifth fewest amount of goals for (27) and the fifth lowest amount of goals for per game (2.45). Finally, New York has the eighth worst penalty kill (73%) and third worst point percentage (0.318) in the NHL.
The majority of these stats are due to the team’s extreme lack of offense. In addition, their offense, when it does exist, is very concentrated.
Mika ZIbanejad, the team’s leading goal scorer, has been responsible for almost 20% of the Rangers’ goals so far. The group of players who produce offensively most frequently is not exactly diverse.
One way that the Rangers could try to kickstart their offense is by going with a “top-heavy” lineup. This would mean loading up their first two lines and defensive pairs with their absolute best players and letting the bottom lines and pairs be filled with less talented or experienced players.
Doing this could either help the team extensively or plunge them even further beneath rock bottom.
Pros of a top-heavy lineup
(All stats in this section via Natural Stat Trick‘s line tool for Chris Kreider/Mika Zibanejad/Mats Zuccarello and Jimmy Vesey/Mika Zibanejad/Mats Zuccarello.)
Though many may be skeptical, there are some potential positive impacts of a top-heavy New York Rangers team.
Instead of spreading out the best players among the four lines and pairs and having them play with more average players, concentrating the better skaters into one area could jumpstart the offense.
For example, the top three point scorers on the Rangers right now are Mika Zibanejad (five goals and four assists for nine points), Mats Zuccarello (two goals and six assists for eight points), and Chris Kreider (four goals and three assists for seven points). Together, they have a Corsi-For percentage of 47.06%.
This line has a better CF% than, for instance, a line of Jimmy Vesey (three goals and zero assists for three points) with Zuccarello and Zibanejad, who would have a 31.43 CF%.
Though this is only one case, it rings true for the majority of the team, and it makes a lot of sense. More offensively-minded and talented players generate more offense together than one or two offensively-minded and talented players with more average to mediocre skaters.
Cons of a top-heavy lineup
Of course, with any good idea, there are definite drawbacks.
The main problem with having all of the best players in one or two lines and pairs definitely means that they will be the only lines and pairs putting up points.
While this seems like a good idea in theory, it could actually hurt the offense, since one line can only take so many shifts. Furthermore, it could hurt the development of younger players who need top line minutes in the NHL to grow.
For example, Pavel Buchnevich is probably one of the skaters who needs those top six minutes the most in order to develop. He has five points (three goals and two assists) so far, putting him at sixth on the team in points, ninth in assists, and third in goals.
While his goal total is positive, he probably would not be considered to be on one of those “top-heavy” lines. This could stunt his growth as a player, something that he already got enough of from previous head coach Alain Vigneault.
Shifting the New York Rangers into a team with a “top-heavy lineup” could either impact them negatively or positively. Fortunately, since the expectations for the team this season are lower than usual, there is no pressure to win, making right now a perfect time to test out new strategies and see what works.