New York Rangers: What is going on with the Metropolitan Division?
A perennial powerhouse and home of the last three Stanley Cup champions, the Metropolitan Division is experiencing a downturn. How bad is it? The New York Rangers are just three points out of a playoff spot.
Gary Bettman’s NHL is a league of parity. The salary cap has ensured that there will be no more dynasties and the NFL’s “any given Sunday” philosophy has become the NHL mantra. The point for losing a game in overtime has guaranteed that a majority of teams (22 out of 31 as of today) will have a winning record.
Yet, after years of domination, the Metropolitan looks to be on the downswing.
This could be do to a variety of reasons including the cost of success. The current model for winning is to feature two or three highly paid players and surround them with entry level contracts. When those young players age out and need raises, they leave the team in search of that big pay day.
How bad is it? While there are variances in the schedule with some teams playing far fewer games than others, the Met lags far behind when it comes to points. The top 15 teams in the entire league have 14 or more points this season and only the Met’s Pittsburgh Penguins make the list, sneaking in with 14.
The November 1 benchmark
Five years ago, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet pointed out that teams four points or more out of the playoffs on November 1, rarely make the post-season. Believe it or not, the Rangers are in the mix for post-season play as of today.
The reason is that the mediocrity of the Metropolitan has resulted in parity within the division itself. The Rangers have the fewest points in the Division with nine but are only three points out of a playoff spot.
Compare that to the Atlantic where the Florida Panthers have only seven points in nine games but are already seven points out of a playoff spot. In the Central, the St. Louis Blues have nine points like the Rangers but are six points out of the last spot. Even in the Pacific Division which rivals the Met when it comes to mediocrity, the last place Kings (seven points) are six points out.
More numbers
When it comes to head to head division competition, the Central is beating up on the Met with an 11-3-2 record. The Atlantic has a 12-8-3 record versus the Metropolitan. The Pacific is the only division under .500 with an 11-12-5 record (thanks to the Rangers’ two wins against San Jose).
The news is a little better when it comes to winning percentage. The Atlantic and Central Divisions each place four teams in the top 16. The Metropolitan has four teams in the top 16 while the Pacific lags with only two.
The Met also is an offensive powerhouse. Four of the top eight teams in the NHL with goals per game are in the Division.
1. Pittsburgh 4.30
2. Washington 3.80
3. Tampa 3.64
4. St. Louis 3.60
5. Columbus 3.55
6. Toronto 3.50
7. Nashville 3.50
8. New Jersey 3.44
On the negative side, when it comes to defense, six of the eight teams in the Met Division are in the bottom half of the league with four (including the Rangers) among the ten worst.
Home versus road games should have an impact on the standings. Here’s how the divisions stand so far this season.
Metropolitan Division 46 home, 41 away
Central Division 46 home, 35 away
Atlantic Division 44 home, 46 away
Pacific Division 41 home, 55 away
With 74% of their games at home, it’s not a surprise that the Central Division has jumped out to a quick start with a .663 winning percentage. The Met has played 53% of their games on home ice but has only a .532 winning percentage. Both the Atlantic and Pacific divisions have a better home winning percentage and both divisions will have more home games coming up so there could be even more of a decline in Metropolitan Division performance.
A decline in talent
One easy explanation for the Met Division decline is in the quality of the players. While Evgeni Malkin is second in scoring with 19 points, he is the only Metro Division player in the top 12. Same goes for high scoring defensemen with only Washington’s John Carlson and Pittsburgh’s Kris Letang in the top 12.
The Met is also paying the price for success with the Division seeing far fewer elite players selected in the entry draft. The best players (Sydney Crosby, Malkin, Alex Ovechkin) in the Division are getting older and were drafted over a decade ago.
Meanwhile, the best young players all reside outside the Division including Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Jack Eichel, Nikita Kucherov and Vladimir Tarasenko. While the acquisition of Taylor Hall was a gift to the Met, losing John Tavares to Toronto didn’t help.
What does it mean for the Rangers?
There are really two schools of thought when it comes to the Rangers. An optimist will look at the state of the Metropolitan Division and see it as an opportunity for the Rangers to actually make it to the post-season. While still a work in progress, the team has shown enough potential to believe at least internally that they can be competitive and will be able to sneak into the playoffs.
One thing is becoming obvious, that unlike previous years, both wild card teams will be coming from the Atlantic Division, not the Met. That will make it tougher for the Blueshirts, but anything is possible.
A pessimist will believe that mediocre level of play in the Division will derail the rebuild as the Rangers will seem more competitive than they really are. By lingering near a playoff spot, the team will continue to play veterans over youngsters and will be reluctant to sell at the deadline. While the true hope for the rebuild is a top three lottery pick, the state of the Met Division may hamper those aspirations.
The good news is by the end of November, we will have a realistic picture of how competitive this Ranger team really is. In the 14 games in November the Rangers do not play a team that ranks in the top ten in the NHL. They also have eight of the next 14 at home. A winning record will mean playoff contention, a losing record will mean another sell-off at the deadline.
Next. Pavel Buchnevich will be fine going forward. dark
According to a 2014 STATS inc report featured in USA today, 75 percent of the teams in a playoff spot on American Thanksgiving ultimately ended up qualifying for the postseason. So, the next month will be the time to figure out if the Rangers are as bad as it looks.