In terms of rebuilds, there are two different schools of thought. Either a team can tear the roster down completely or it can try to salvage workable pieces.
Designing an NHL contender is a balancing act akin to riding a unicycle across a tightrope without a net. There is a reason that the average general manager in the league has a tenure of about five seasons. An owner is only willing to deal with the same vision for so long before the G.M. becomes expendable.
As far as the New York Rangers’ timeline is concerned, Jeff Gorton will give a peek into his mindset this season. As G.M. Gorton has juggled different demands at different times. When he first took over the job from Glen Sather, he was attempting to add to a ready-made roster. Over the past 24 months, Gorton has orchestrated a tear down in an attempt to get younger and cheaper.
Right now, the Rangers have very few pieces that can be considered long-term assets. Aside from players drafted in the past three years, Mika Zibanejad, Brady Skjei, Pavel Buchnevich, Tony DeAngelo and Neal Pionk, the roster is a ball of clay waiting to be molded.
There are several stop gap players on short-term contracts, a few on expiring contracts and then there is Henrik Lundqvist who is in a category of his own. However, an NHL team dresses 18 skaters and two goaltenders on any given night and it only has a few players with experience in the world’s best league.
Even if the Rangers’ front office feels that it can build a majority of the roster with internal pieces, it’d be foolish to think that it’d all happen at once. While the team’s prospect pool is grooming in developmental play whether it be in the AHL, KHL, NCAA or junior hockey, nothing happens right away.
Even if all of the draft picks turn into NHL talent (which they won’t) the front office still has other factors to consider. Of the players who do prove to be NHL caliber, they won’t all be at the same level of development at the same time because every case is different. Meaning that the team will need even more assets to eventually get back to contender status.
Consider the following: Lias Andersson, Vitali Kravtsov, K’Andre Miller, Nils Lundqvist, Libor Hajek, Ryan Lindgren, Yegor Rykov, Sean Day and Igor Shestyorkin all need at least one to three more years of development before even sniffing the NHL.
This presents the question for Gorton: Can he save some of the parts he already has or does this require a full-scale teardown to set up a five to six-year cycle before competing again. There are arguments to pursue either path but it will ultimately come down to Gorton’s judgment.
Zed is dead
So, let’s say that Gorton ops for the full scale tear down to ensure a top five draft pick in addition to securing more future assets. This means trading Chris Kreider, Kevin Hayes and likely Kevin Shattenkirk as well because they don’t fit the window for contention and be more valuable to use in acquiring pieces for the long-term.
Each player on their own would be able to get a significant package from a contender. Of the three, it’s likely Kreider that would attract the largest package because of his combination of age and talent. With the right linemates, the forward could easily score 30 goals and he also has another season remaining on his contract.
While in theory, this does sound like a no-brainer decision, it’s important to consider the ramifications of such a decision. Trading away these building block players assumes that someone the team drafted or an outside move would be able to replace their production.
All three of these players are good at what they do but not irreplaceable. However, it would set the team’s window for competing back a few years. Young players need foundational pieces to complement as they come into their own at the NHL level. That is why young teams typically have several veterans to serve as a model to follow.
This would be the choice if Gorton wants to do two different things at the same time. First, it would give him a long time frame to operate and allow him to keep his job through his plan. Gorton would be able to point at his plan and say “we’re going to be ready by 2021-2022, I know what I’m doing.”
It would also allow the G.M. to clear the books of expensive veterans and have ample cap space to target marquee free agents to surround his drafted players with.
Just take it easy man
The counterpoint to the long-term approach above is that the Rangers as currently constructed aren’t that far away. In either scenario, the organization will need better than recent history return on draft picks its already selected. But, if Gorton is going to justify extending Kreider and Hayes, he’s going to need some external help.
This could come in the form of a trade for a player with a proven track record or a huge free agent to sign with the organization. Sure, if the G.M. can land Artemi Panarin in free agency, this path forward seems a lot more viable.
Keeping both Hayes and Kreider does come at a cost. First of all, the players are both known quantities and not likely to ever get any better while coming at an expensive cost. In addition to being more expensive than a younger player, both would be under contract when their respective declines would begin.
That is why Gorton opted to trade away Ryan McDonagh at last year’s deadline. While the defenseman still had a few years of quality play remaining, it would not have been worth the investment over that time frame because the team would be saddled with a diminished player towards the end of the deal.
What to do?
Personally, I think the Rangers need to gauge the market to see what’s out there. If a contender is willing to give up an arm and a leg for one of the players under short-term control, it’d be negligent to not at least consider it.
Either path has a serious argument but, it would be beneficial to make a decision one way or another soon. If Gorton makes his moves now, the on-ice talent at the NHL level would go down and sure up the chances at Jack Hughes who is the consensus number one overall pick in the 2019 entry draft.
This is not an easy call to make and I don’t envy Gorton’s position. Every armchair G.M. likes to think that they could easily save their favorite team within a year and it wouldn’t be too difficult. However, there’s a reason that professional G.M.s who spend entire careers working towards the job only last about five years.
I’m in the camp of blowing it all up for the right offer. If I wasn’t totally blown away by the options, I’d extend Kreider and Hayes while going strong after Panarin in free agency next summer to try and be competitve for the 2020-2021 season.