In some sports, it’s possible to get hot over the course of a season and ride it into a playoff spot. In the 82 game grind of the NHL, the New York Rangers may find it more difficult to keep riding dangerously.
Like every other aspect of the modern world professional hockey features competitive people constantly looking for any inefficiency to get ahead. While advanced statistics and analytics are pretty commonly accepted on a league-wide basis, they are still facing an uphill battle within certain hockey circles that feel like the game is more than spreadsheets.
In the case of the New York Rangers, the team is exceeding the numbers on those spreadsheets. By almost any account, the team that plays its home games at Madison Square Garden should be bottom five in the entire league. On a nightly basis, the team gets caved in shots wise and is often reliant on its goaltender to keep the rest of the guys on the ice afloat.
Last season, the Rangers were the worst team in the entire league in terms of Cors For percentage (CF%) meaning that its players had the fewest percentage of scoring chances during the course of games. The 2017-2018 Rangers had an abysmal 46.03 CF% meaning that its players only generated 46.03 percent of scoring chances in a game.
It’s still early on in the season, but New York’s slight increase this year, up to 46.46 CF%, is still pretty bad. That figure is eighth worst in the entire league, but being that the team is only 17 games into the season, there is room to trend in either direction.
While there is not a direct correlation between CF% and long-term success, it can be a strong indicator. The logic being that if a team is facing more scoring chances than it is taking every single game, it is more likely to concede more goals. Of course, there are the occasional funky games in which the team that gets outshot 41-25 wins the contest 4-1.
Using last season as a reference point, we can get a decent idea if the team can keep stealing wins even though it is being so drastically outshot.
The negative outliers
There were eight teams during the 2017-2018 season that made the postseason while having a negative CF%: The Washington Capitals, Minnesota Wild, Colorado Avalanche, Anaheim Ducks, Toronto Maple Leafs, Philadelphia Flyers, Los Angeles Kings and New Jersey Devils.
Obviously, the reigning Stanley Cup champions standout amongst this group and their victory is a testament to the old school “eye test,” crowd. That Capitals team finished first in the Metropolitan Division and did so with Braden Holtby playing like a below average goaltender.
A great goaltender can mask a bad possession team and keep them afloat in a number of ways. First, if the team is only conceding low-quality scoring chances, it doesn’t matter how many it gives up because, in theory, the goalie should make the save. This wasn’t the case with Washington as it rode its superb offensive talent to outscore the opposition.
In addition to the Capitals, the Maple Leafs and Devils are both worth mentioning for different reasons. In the case of Toronto, their defense was so bad personnel-wise, it was forced to outscore its opponents if it wanted to win. As for New Jersey, the team’s success was contingent upon a superhuman season from Taylor Hall.
The positive outliers
But, like I previously mentioned, just because a team has good CF% does not mean they are going to be successful. Three of the top four possession teams for the 2017-2018 season did not qualify for the postseason in spite of the fact that they all generated more shots than their opposition. The Calgary Flames, Chicago Blackhawks and Carolina Hurricanes all fall into this category.
While all three teams have different types of elite talent, they all failed over the course of the season for similar reasons. Without quality goaltending to compliment the high CF%, it’s essentially filling a bucket of water with a hole in the bottom. Sure, the bucket is getting about a quarter of a way filled, but water still trickles out and can never get filled.
These are the types of teams that can bank on quality performances from its skaters every single night but rolling the dice between the pipes.
What it means for New York
Bringing it all back to the Rangers, these teams all tell conflicting stories. Some teams are able to exceed their means and at least stay in the playoff mix through elbow grease and hard work. Winning doesn’t have to be pretty as the Devils proved last year. However, the Rangers don’t have a Hart Trophy candidate on the roster to bail them out in tight spots.
New York does have the advantage of rolling with Lundqvist who’s capable of masking most issues. While the defense in front of him does no favors, the Swede is still playing at a high level and giving the Rangers a chance to win.
Trying to eke out every game 4-3 while getting 38 saves from Lundqvist seems like a high wire act. It’s certainly possible on any given night as evident by the team’s four-game winning streak. However, it probably cannot be sustained over the remaining 67 games of the season.
There is simply too much parity in the league for New York to live dangerously and still get by. This system can beat the bad and mediocre teams, but considering the fact that there are 16 playoff teams scattered across two conferences it’s tough to see the roughly 38 more wins that would be needed to make a run.
Last year, 97 points got both the Columbus Blue Jackets and Devils into the postseason. With New York sitting at 18 through 15 games, it would need roughly 80 or so the rest of the way to have a chance at being in the mix. That simply seems like too high of a bar to realistically be a contender.
Ultimately, the Rangers will be what David Quinn said they would, hard working and trying to get better. That’ll win some hockey games, but long-term, talent typically beats heart.