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New York Rangers: The Thanksgiving Day playoff picture

By Steve Paulus|
NEW YORK, NY - MAY 29: The New York Rangers celebrates after defeating the Montreal Canadiens in Game Six to win the Eastern Conference Final in the 2014 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at Madison Square Garden on May 29, 2014 in New York City. The New York Rangers defeated the Montreal Canadiens 1 to 0. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - MAY 29: The New York Rangers celebrates after defeating the Montreal Canadiens in Game Six to win the Eastern Conference Final in the 2014 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at Madison Square Garden on May 29, 2014 in New York City. The New York Rangers defeated the Montreal Canadiens 1 to 0. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY – NOVEMBER 12: The New York Rangers salute the crowd after defeating the Vancouver Canucks 2-1 at Madison Square Garden on November 12, 2018 in New York City. (Photo by Jared Silber/NHLI via Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY – NOVEMBER 12: The New York Rangers salute the crowd after defeating the Vancouver Canucks 2-1 at Madison Square Garden on November 12, 2018 in New York City. (Photo by Jared Silber/NHLI via Getty Images)

It’s a statistical fact that 78% of the teams in playoff position on Thanksgiving Day will make the playoffs.  Guess what?  The New York Rangers are not only in a playoff spot, they are in a virtual tie for first place in the Metropolitan Division.  What is the NHL playoff outlook on this key date?

With the NHL taking the day off, it’s a good time to look at who’s in and who’s out of the playoff picture.  With a 12-8-2 record and 26 points, the Rangers have finally made it into the top third  of the NHL.  It’s an amazing feat and a lot of the credit has to go to David Quinn and his coaching staff.  They’ve instilled discipline through accountability and a can-do spirit that has taken the team very far after a rough start.  Can they keep it up?  There’s no reason  to believe that the Rangers won’t  contend for a playoff spot.

The Eastern Conference

On Thanksgiving Day the teams from the East in the playoffs are:

  1. Tampa  31 points (22 GP)
  2. Toronto  30 points (22 GP)
  3. Buffalo  30 points (22 GP)
  4. Columbus  26 points  (21 GP)
  5. Rangers   26 points (22 GP)
  6. Boston 26 points (21 GP)
  7. Montreal  26 points (22 GP)
  8. Washington 25 points  (21 GP)

There are a number of teams just out of the playoff picture:

  1. Carolina 23 points (21 GP)
  2. Islanders 22 points (20 GP)
  3. Detroit 22 points (21 GP)
  4. Ottawa  21 points  (22 GP)
  5. New Jersey  20 points (20 GP)
  6. Pittsburgh 20 points (20 GP)
  7. Philadelphia 20 points (21 GP)
  8. Florida 19 points (19 GP)

It appears that both wild card teams will be coming from the Atlantic Division.  That will make it an even tougher dogfight for Metropolitan Division teams.

The surprise teams from the East are the Rangers, Buffalo and Montreal.  The  disappointments are Pittsburgh, New Jersey, Philadelphia and Florida.  If any of those four teams live up to their potential, it will make the playoff race much more interesting.  It’s worth noting that all of the Met Division non-playoff teams have games in hand on the Rangers, a cause for concern.

The Western Conference

Here are the West standings as of Thanksgiving Day, starting with teams in the playoffs:

  1. Nashville  33 points (22 GP)
  2. Minnesota  28 points (22 GP)
  3. Calgary  27 points (22 GP)
  4. Winnipeg  26 points (20 GP)
  5. Colorado  26 points (21 games)
  6. San Jose  26 points  (22 GP)
  7. Dallas  24 points  (22 GP)
  8. Anaheim  23 points (23 GP)

The teams out of the playoff picture in the West:

  1. Vancouver  22 points (24 GP)
  2. Edmonton  21 points (21 GP)
  3. Chicago  21 points (22 GP)
  4. Vegas  21 points (23 GP)
  5. Arizona  20 (20 GP)
  6. St. Louis 17 (20 GP)
  7. Los Angeles 15  (21 GP)

The Western contenders are following the pre-season script for the most part.  Minnesota and Calgary are exceeding expectations though they were supposed to contend.

There are some major surprises in the West.  The Vancouver Canucks rode early season success, but have leveled off. After their amazing run to the Stanley Cup Finals, the Vegas Golden Knights have come crashing to earth though they are still in striking distance of the playoffs.  Los Angeles and St. Louis are far worse than anyone expected.   It’s no surprise that the four coaching changes this season are all from the Western Conference.

Expectations

If 78% of the teams in the playoffs on Thanksgiving Day will make the post-season, it means that almost one out of four will not.  That’s four out of the 16 teams that are in the playoffs today.

On Thanksgiving Day last year there were five teams that were in playoff position and ultimately missed the post-season. Those teams were Detroit and the Islanders in the East and St. Louis, Calgary and Vancouver in the West.   The teams that were out of the playoffs, but made it were Boston and Philadelphia in the East and Anaheim, Colorado and Minnesota in the West.

The Rangers are clearly not getting much love from the hockey cognoscenti .  This week they  getting some recognition in the weekly power rankings though they are ranked 15th at NHL.com and only 20th at ESPN.com.

At The Athletic (behind a paywall), they do a daily playoff projection based on a teams record, schedule strength and health.  As of today, they project the Rangers finishing 25th overall with a 24% chance of making the playoffs and  a 0.4% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

The good news is that percentage has been increasing incrementally with every win. It’s obvious that the Rangers’ early season success has yet to convince a lot of NHL insiders that they are for real. The only way to change that attitude is to keep winning. Stay tuned.

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