New York Rangers: The team’s most effective line two months in
Although the New York Rangers lack a true superstar, a group effort has managed to keep the team afloat. Against the Ottawa Senators, David Quinn assembled his best line of the season thus far.
Understanding modern hockey comes down to a few different factors. For the most part, teams want to have the edge in shots on goal because (in theory) the team with more of them is probably going to win the game. This is the foundation for most hockey analytics: scoring chances are an indication of success.
While the New York Rangers have hemorrhaged shots as a team this season, there have been individual outliers. In 25 games, the team was outshot 15 times, which gives about an accurate assessment as to where it is in terms of talent. While New York doesn’t make it look pretty, the players are able to keep the team in the game most nights.
Players are effective in terms of chance creation when they create more scoring opportunities than the team gives up while they’re on the ice. This is measured through either shot differential or Corsi For Percentage. The difference being that CF% is a number, and shot differential is a +/- number.
An average possession player has a CF% of 50, meaning that they are neither a negative or positive when on the ice. New York currently has two forwards, Chris Kreider and Kevin Hayes with a positive CF%. Kreider sits at 51.6 CF%, the highest on the team and Hayes has a CF% of 50.3, after these two no one else is positive.
It’s possible for players to be effective while being negative in CF%, but if they are positive any success they are having is more likely to be sustainable. Based on the scoring chances idea I mentioned earlier, if a player is creating scoring chances, their offensive production is likely to stay high.
On the other hand, a player like Neal Pionk who has a CF% of 40.8 is more likely to have his production dry up. If a team is giving up more scoring chances than it is creating, that means a player is more likely to be pinned in their own zone for extended periods of time. So, offensive production is not necessarily impacted with scoring chances but is an indicator of sustainability.
This brings us to head coach David Quinn’s decision to pair his two best possession players with his brightest young star in Filip Chytil. Watching the three forwards together against Ottawa was a textbook example of keeping it simple and going with what should work. Looking at the scoring chances created, the three did what they should have: create offense.
In addition to complimenting each other well in terms of creating scoring chances, the skillsets are ideal. Matching up a natural distributor like Hayes with two players who love finding the back of the net seems perfect. For the longest time, the center was tasked with playing a more defensive-oriented role and it held down his offensive production.
Going forward, the three should be kept together to maximize offensive scoring chances. Keeping the three best possession forwards as one unit should allow for some consistent stretches of offense pretty much every single night. It may seem redundant, but getting some chance creation is the best possible situation for a line. The puck going in is where things get murky.
For this line to be effective, Chytil and Kreider will need to put the puck in the net while having Hayes orchestrate. Of the three, it’s no surprise that the center is the one with the lowest shooting percentage (8.5%). Watching Hayes miss the net or over hesitate on breakaways has been a staple in his career.
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Hopefully, this unit stays together for the foreseeable future and can give everyone something to be excited about on a nightly basis other than Henrik Lundqvist in net.