The New York Rangers have lacked a game-breaking player since Jaromir Jagr left for Russia back in 2008. The draft lottery doesn’t do anyone any favors.
The integrity of a product is ultimately what a business has to rely on to make money. If the customer doesn’t believe in what they’re going to buy, they’ll opt to spend their money somewhere else. That’s why both the NHL and NBA implemented lottery systems for their respective drafts, to prevent teams from tanking.
Even with the inherent randomness of a ping-pong ball drawing, organizations in both sports have not been discouraged from gutting their roster in hopes of capturing the top selection in the draft. The lottery system is based on chance with the worst team in the league having the best chance of capturing the top pick and subsequently odds of winning go down the better a team finished.
So, if an organization is truly invested in getting the first pick, it can take the necessary steps to get there. The Edmonton Oilers, who have won the lottery four times since 2010-2011 have perfected the art of building a roster with the right mix of journeyman, unproven prospects and established veterans.
Now, no team is ever going to come out and say that the team would like to lose more games than it wins during the course of a season. But, for certain organizations, this becomes the standard and it can truly alienate both the players on the roster and the fans. Up until this season, the Buffalo Sabres’ default position was “we’re rebuilding and gonna draft someone to make us better.”
The unfair reality
Simply put, the draft lottery incentivizes teams to lose more so than a straightforward last to first draft order like the NFL system because of the chance involved. In the NFL, teams know where they’re going to pick based on a team’s record, no ping pong balls necessary, But, in the NHL, the randomness of the lottery makes teams feel the need to bottom out even more.
Furthermore, teams are punished for playing well even when they are rebuilding. This is what pushes the New York Rangers into a difficult position at the present time. All things considered, New York only being five points out of a playoff spot, despite the unsustainability of its performance, should be rewarded.
When a team bottoms out during a rebuild, it doesn’t draw as many fans to games and obviously gets less revenue. On the other hand, teams that show flashes of good play, like the Rangers, got their fan base riled up and even have some of them talking about the playoffs.
Now, why should the Rangers be punished for playing well as a rebuilding team? Even though New York is arguably one of the least talented rosters in the entire league, its managed to play a competitive game most nights. The very nature of a lottery system doesn’t reward teams for being competitive.
Shouldn’t that be the NHL’s objective? Instead of giving the illusion of parity through an illogical playoff system and the loser point for overtime, it should encourage teams to put together as competitive teams as possible. The Oilers have been a perpetual lottery team and had one competitive season this entire decade.
There has to be a better way to disperse amateur talent through the league than rewarding teams for playing terribly. Take the Ottawa Senators, for example, that organization traded away its best player, Erik Karlsson, for pennies on the dollar, full well knowing it wasn’t going to even have a chance of competing this season.
The irony of it is, Ottawa doesn’t even own the rights to its choice this year. The Colorado Avalanche, a likely playoff team, is going to be bolstered with a top ten selection courtesy of the Matt Duchene trade.
Final thoughts
The unfortunate reality is that the Rangers winning nine of eleven games in November seriously hampered the team’s chances at getting a top-five pick. Even though the team is only eight points ahead of the dead last Los Angeles Kings, it’s going to take a serious rough patch for the Rangers to sink to that depth.
Even if a team finishes dead last, it still has just an 18.5 percent chance of getting the first overall pick according to tankathon.com. There is too much variance from a team’s on-ice result to it’s possible worst case scenario when it comes to draft pick. There needs to be a more direct correlation between a result and draft choice number.
In addition to a more direct correlation, teams that are making an effort to get better over the years need to be rewarded. Edmonton’s single playoff appearance this decade is a testament to how bad the system can be in the wrong hands. The organization won the lottery four times and failed to capitalize on the situation.
The Oilers never made an effort to get better and lucked into Connor McDavid in its lap. This system needs a breath of fresh air and to incentivize teams being competitive.
The league has a number of issues that need addressing when it comes time for the next collective bargaining agreement negotiation. Hopefully, after fixing the playoff format, a better draft system is high on the list.