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New York Rangers: A look at the importance of first round picks, by the numbers

By Steve Paulus

NEW YORK, NY - NOVEMBER 24: New York Rangers Defenceman Marc Staal (18) blocks a shot by Washington Capitals Left Wing Alex Ovechkin (8) during the National Hockey League game between the Washington Capitals and the New York Rangers on November 24, 2018 at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY. (Photo by Joshua Sarner/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - NOVEMBER 24: New York Rangers Defenceman Marc Staal (18) blocks a shot by Washington Capitals Left Wing Alex Ovechkin (8) during the National Hockey League game between the Washington Capitals and the New York Rangers on November 24, 2018 at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY. (Photo by Joshua Sarner/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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NEW YORK, NY – OCTOBER 17: Sidney Crosby #87 of the Pittsburgh Penguins skates against Mika Zibanejad #93 of the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden on October 17, 2017 in New York City. The Pittsburgh Penguins won 5-4 in overtime. (Photo by Jared Silber/NHLI via Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY – OCTOBER 17: Sidney Crosby #87 of the Pittsburgh Penguins skates against Mika Zibanejad #93 of the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden on October 17, 2017 in New York City. The Pittsburgh Penguins won 5-4 in overtime. (Photo by Jared Silber/NHLI via Getty Images) /

What does it prove?

These number pretty definitively prove that if you want an elite forward on your team, you’re going to need first round picks and the higher the pick, the better.

One thing these numbers do not prove is that a first round pick is a guaranteed elite player.  There are a lot of first round picks who are not on this list.  However, there are fewer forwards picked among the top three who didn’t make the list.

Between the 2004 and 2016 NHL Entry Drafts, 31 forwards have been drafted.  17 of them made this list.  Fourteen didn’t and for every complete bust like Nail Yakapov there is a  forward like Bobby Ryan, Kyle Turris or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins who may not be elite, but can be called a star.

About Artemi Panarin

Artemi Panarin is one of two players who made the elite list as an undrafted free agent.  Tyler Johnson is the other and he qualified for the list by finishing among the top 20 scorers once. Artemi Panarin has been a top 20 point-getter four times, every year he has been in the NHL.

One sure way to acquire an elite player is through free agency and of all the possible UFA’s at the end of this season, Panarin is the best.  The only other UFA who made the list is Matt Duchene and he has only finished among the top scorers once.

Getting better fast

In looking at these players, we discovered one other thing: The higher the pick, the sooner the payoff.  Here’s how long it takes these elite players to get to the NHL:

  • Of the 17 top three picks on the list, 13 were in the NHL the year they were drafted (76%). Three were in the NHL the second year and one in the third.  In some cases the delay was due to overseas contractual obligations (Ovechkin and Malkin).
  • 17 of the 38 first rounders made it to the NHL the year they were drafted (45%).  Nine made it in the second, seven in the third.  That means that 33 of the elite 38 first rounders were in the NHL within three years of being drafted (86%)
  • Of the 13 players on the list drafted in the second round or later, only two made it to the NHL the year they were drafted.  Three arrived in their third season, seven in their fourth year and one, Brad Marchand, didn’t make it to the NHL until the fifth year after he was drafted.
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