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The New York Rangers fastest way back to contention: An offer sheet to Auston Matthews

By Steve Paulus

TORONTO, ONTARIO - OCTOBER 7: Auston Matthews #34 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates past Kevin Shattenkirk #22 and Ondrej Pavelec #31 of the New York Rangers during the second period October 7, 2017 at the Air Canada Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images)
TORONTO, ONTARIO - OCTOBER 7: Auston Matthews #34 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates past Kevin Shattenkirk #22 and Ondrej Pavelec #31 of the New York Rangers during the second period October 7, 2017 at the Air Canada Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images) /
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NEW YORK, NY – DECEMBER 23: Auston Matthews #34 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates with the puck against Kevin Shattenkirk #22 of the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden on December 23, 2017 in New York City. (Photo by Jared Silber/NHLI via Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY – DECEMBER 23: Auston Matthews #34 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates with the puck against Kevin Shattenkirk #22 of the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden on December 23, 2017 in New York City. (Photo by Jared Silber/NHLI via Getty Images) /

Offer sheets are rarely made to restricted free agents.  When they are made they are usually matched.  Could the New York Rangers use the offer sheet strategy to acquire a top player this off-season?

Okay, let’s not beat around the bush.  We’re talking about Auston Matthews. He’s one of the best players in the NHL and is a game changer.  He’s the kind of  player the New York Rangers have not had in their lineup since Mark Messier in his prime (sorry Jags).

Can the Rangers buck the rest of the league and steal a generational player from an original six team?

First, it must be made absolutely clear that the compensation for signing a Group 2 restricted free agent is punitive and it increases based on the salary offered.  Here are the rules regarding compensation:

OFFER SHEET COMPENSATION
$1,110,249 or below: None
Over $1,110,249 to $1,682,194:  Third Round
Over $1,682,194 to $3,364,391:  Second Round
Over $3,364,391 to $5,046,585:  First Round and Third Round
Over $5,046,585 to $6,728,781:  First Round, Second Round, and Third
Round
Over $6,728,781 to $8,410,976:  Two First Rounds, Second Round, and
Third Round
Over $8,410,976:  Four First Rounds

Toronto’s situation

What makes a potential play for Auston Matthews possible is that the timing is perfect because Toronto is up against the salary cap, big time.  For 2019-20 they are committed to $56.2 million in salary to 14 players.  That includes paying John Tavares $11 million per year, William Nylander $7 million along with  fairly hefty contracts for Frederik Andersen, Nazem Kadri, Morgan Rielly and Nikita Zaitsev.    They’re also on the hook for $6.2 million to Patrick Marleau, for the last year of a three year contract.  All of this salary info is from capfriendly.com.

The estimated cap ceiling for next season will range from $81 to $85.4 million, up from the $79.5.  Let’s assume the high end and that the cap will end up at the $85 million number.

That leaves approximately $29 million for the Leafs to pay the other 15 players on the roster.

The Leaf’s problem is that they have Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, Andreas Johnsson and Kasperi Kapanen hitting restricted free agency.   Additionally, Jake Gardiner is an unrestricted free agent.

How much is Auston Matthews worth?  if Connor McDavid is making $12.5 and John Tavares is making $11 million, then Matthews figures to pull in around $12 million.  That would leave the Leafs $17 million to sign Marner, Kapanen, Johnsson and fill out the rest of the roster.

If Marner makes $7-8 million on a longterm contract, they will have $9 million for the rest of the roster.  Is it do-able?  Absolutely, but it won’t be easy.

That’s where the offer sheet comes in.  The Rangers can throw an absurd contract at Matthews that will create chaos in the Leafs’ salary structure.  If the Rangers offer him $14 million a year on a seven year deal and  Toronto matches, they will be left with $15 million for Marner and company.  Even if they let Gardiner go, they will be hard pressed to get Marner and Kapanen  on new deals along with the players they need to fill out the roster.

A totally diabolical back up plan would be if the Maple Leafs match the offer, for the Rangers to submit an offer sheet to Mitch Marner that the Leafs would have no way of matching.

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