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The New York Rangers fastest way back to contention: An offer sheet to Auston Matthews

By Steve Paulus

TORONTO, ONTARIO - OCTOBER 7: Auston Matthews #34 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates past Kevin Shattenkirk #22 and Ondrej Pavelec #31 of the New York Rangers during the second period October 7, 2017 at the Air Canada Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images)
TORONTO, ONTARIO - OCTOBER 7: Auston Matthews #34 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates past Kevin Shattenkirk #22 and Ondrej Pavelec #31 of the New York Rangers during the second period October 7, 2017 at the Air Canada Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images) /
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NEW YORK, NY – DECEMBER 23: Auston Matthews #34 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates against the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden on December 23, 2017 in New York City. The Toronto Maple Leafs won 3-2. (Photo by Jared Silber/NHLI via Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY – DECEMBER 23: Auston Matthews #34 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates against the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden on December 23, 2017 in New York City. The Toronto Maple Leafs won 3-2. (Photo by Jared Silber/NHLI via Getty Images) /

Can the Rangers afford it?

That’s literally the million dollar question. Right now, the Rangers have $24 million in cap space to spend next season.   That picture could be radically different by February 26 if the Rangers could unload some current contracts to make room for this deal.  Finding buyers for Chris Kreider and Vlad Namestnikov at the deadline would free up an additional $8.5 million.  If they could find someone to take Marc Staal, Kevin Shattenkirk and Brendan Smith off their hands, even by eating some of their contracts, they could free enough to make this offer sheet possible.

The  benefit of being a rebuilding team is that they will have an awful lot of players on entry level contracts, long enough to get the Rangers to the point where they are not hampered by overpaying Staal, Shattenkirk and Smith if they can’t unload them.

What about the compensation?

A $14 million contract would require the Rangers to surrender four first round picks.  The good news is the 2019 pick would not be included.  It would the the first round picks from 2020 to 2023.   The Rangers could go a long way toward easing the pain if they could add first rounders in trade deadline deals this season.  Last year they had three first rounders after trading Nash and McDonagh.   If they make the right deals, they could end up with two first round picks each of the next two years and that would ease the pain.

The negatives

The first, obvious negative would be the loss of the first round draft picks.  If the Ranger rebuild goes on for a few years, some of those picks could end up as high lottery picks.   Still, Matthews is a singular talent and is a guarantee.  With the worst team in the league having a 50% chance at the top overall pick, it may be better to go for the sure thing. But there is a risk.

Second, by putting all of their eggs in one basket, they’re betting an awful lot on one player.  If he is injured or injury prone the deal becomes a disaster.

Finally, the biggest issue is whether the Rangers could surround Matthews with a supporting cast that would allow the team to compete for a Stanley Cup.  Is a team with Auston Matthews as the centerpiece, surrounded by Mika Zibanejad, Filip Chytil, Vitali Kravtsov, Lias Andersson, Bret Howden, Jimmy Vesey and Pavel Buchnevich along with Henrik Lundqvist and Igor Shestyorkin in goal as well as the corps of defensive prospects enough to contend? Assuming Hayes, Kreider, Namestnikov and Zuccarello are goners, how are these combinations?

  1. Matthews-Kravtsov-Chytil
  2. Zibanejad-Buchnevich-Vesey
  3. Howden-Andersson-Fast
  4. Strome-Nieves-Meskanen (or 2019 first round lottery pick)

There’s one intangible negative and that would be the reaction from the rest of the NHL.  The Rangers would be shaking the very foundation of the NHL’s salary structure, plus they would be messing with the most valuable franchise in the league (outside of the Rangers).  The league has never done the Rangers any favors and this would further alienate the team from the hockey establishment.

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