New York Rangers: Finishing among the bottom three is imperative

Finishing out of the bottom three is bad

It’s weird.  If a top five pick is your ultimate goal and the numbers prove that it should be, finishing in the bottom three pretty much guarantees a top five pick. But if you finish fourth from the bottom, your chances of a top five pick drop dramatically to only 57.7%. Here are the odds of getting a top five pick among the four worst teams in the league from Tankathon.com.

                     Top pick   Stay put   #2-4    Top five 
Worst            18.5%      18.5%        81.5%    100%
2nd worst    13.5%       13%           86.5%    100%
3rd worst     11.5%       11.1%       35.6%     84.8%
4th worst       9.5%         2.8%         22.1%     57.7%

If you finish higher than fourth worst, your odds of a top five pick range from 34% (fifth worst) to 3.3% (15th worst).

Al Montoya or Blake Wheeler?

And if anyone still thinks that picking fifth or sixth doesn’t matter, take a look at the 2004 NHL Entry Draft.  The Rangers had the sixth overall pick and selected goalie Al Montoya.  Montoya never suited up for the Blueshirts, but did get into 169 games as a journeyman for six teams.

The Phoenix Coyotes had the fifth overall pick and selected Blake Wheeler. Wheeler pulled a Vesey/Hayes move and didn’t sign with Phoenix, going the free agent route after graduating from the University of Minnesota in 2008. He signed with the Bruins who later traded him to Atlanta (Winnipeg).  He blossomed into a star with the Jets, leading the league in assists last season. This season Wheeler has 60 points in 46 games and is on pace to score 114 points.   Montoya is playing goal for the Bakersfield Condors of the AHL.

In another irony, when Wheeler was fielding offers as a free agent, before signing with the Bruins, guess which team was one of the finalists?  The New York Rangers.

Scoreboard watching

After last night’s game with the Hurricanes, the Rangers are ninth from the bottom with 45 points.   Philadelphia  is third from the bottom with 40 points.  It’s that close.  Games in hand matter (the Rangers are even with the Flyers) and the first tiebreaker after points is regulation or overtime wins (ROW).  Philadelphia has 15 compared to the Rangers 14.

Today, the Rangers have a 16% shot at a top three pick in the draft and no chance at picks four and five.   If they were third from the bottom they would a 33.9% shot at a top three pick and 84.8% shot at a top five pick.  That’s a big difference.

While a true Ranger fan should never root for them to lose, what is important is that the other lottery contenders win.  It really matters.

All lottery data from tankathon.com