New York Rangers: With Auston Matthews signed, time to offer sheet Mitch Marner
A few weeks ago, we explored the idea of an offer sheet from the New York Rangers to Auston Matthews. With him signing a five year extension with the Maple Leafs at $11.6 million per year, it’s be time to move to plan B.
With Matthews off the market, Plan B make sense and that is an offer sheet for Mitch Marner. He’s an elite talent, is young and he will want to get paid.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are in a pretty bad salary cap situation. According to capfriendly.com, if the salary cap is set at $79.5 million, the Leafs have $7.6 million left to fill out the 2019-20 roster. So far, they’ve committed $65.4 million to 13 players.
Filling out the roster will be the challenge. Jake Gardiner, Par Lindholm and Ron Hainsey are unrestricted free agents. Mitch Marner, Kasperi Kapanen, Andreas Johnsson, and Igor Ozhiganov are the unrestricted free agents.
That’s where the New York Rangers come in. A few weeks ago we proposed that an offer sheet for Auston Matthews made sense. It was an opportunity to obtain a game changing talent in exchange for a boatload of future draft picks. We also proposed that if Matthews was not the target, Mitch Marner would be an excellent second choice.
light. Related Story. Should the Rangers sign Auston Matthews to an offer sheet
The key thing is the compensation for signing a player to an offer sheet. It is based completely on salary and the penalty is onerous.
OFFER SHEET COMPENSATION
$1,110,249 or below: None
Over $1,110,249 to $1,682,194: Third Round
Over $1,682,194 to $3,364,391: Second Round
Over $3,364,391 to $5,046,585: First Round and Third Round
Over $5,046,585 to $6,728,781: First Round, Second Round, and Third
Round
Over $6,728,781 to $8,410,976: Two First Rounds, Second Round, and
Third Round
Over $8,410,976: Four First Rounds
How good is Mitch Marner?
Mitch Marner is insanely good. The fourth overall choice in the 2015 draft, he is tenth in the NHL in scoring and is ninth overall in assists. He was a two point-a-game player in junior hockey and he has improved in each of three NHL seasons. The 22-year old is on pace to finish with 30 goals and 95 points.
How much is he worth? To the Maple Leafs he is worth at least the same $7 million annually they pay William Nylander, many would argue that he deserves more.
That’s where the offer sheet comes in. Should the Rangers throw a lot of money at Marner, making him too expensive for Toronto to match? If they were to offer Marner $10 million per year is there any way that Toronto could pay him that, stay under the cap and still be competitive?
If the Rangers can acquire some future first round picks at the deadline this season, can they stockpile enough so the impact of losing four first rounders is palatable? Don’t forget, the first round lottery pick this season cannot be part of this compensation as the offer sheet would come after July 1.
Another option is an offer for longer term at $8.4 million that carries less compensation. Would it be possible for Toronto to even match that?
Why do it
Offer sheets have been a bad word in the NHL. Since 2000, there have been only eight offer sheets signed with only one offer sheet not matched. However, there has rarely been a situation similar to the one the Maple Leafs are facing. They are in salary cap hell and GM Kyle Dubas is going to have to work miracles to get all of his players signed. It’s inevitable that they will be trading some of their players and Jake Gardiner is as good as gone. As for the Rangers, there is no guarantee that they will draft anyone with the ability of a Mitch Marner (look at their record) so giving up four first rounders can be seen as a reasonable gamble.
The modern model of a successful NHL organization is a team with a core of highly compensated elite talent, surrounded by young players on entry level or bridge contracts and a few quality veterans with reasonable contracts. The key part of the puzzle is the elite talent and that’s what the Rangers are lacking. Mitch Marner is an elite talent.
A lot can happen in the next six months. If the Toronto Maple Leafs win the Stanley Cup, the fan base will forgive them if they lose some of their top tier talent. If they don’t win, you can be sure that Dubas will be active in the trade market around the draft.
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The Rangers could win the draft lottery and with a Jack Hughes in the pipeline, they may feel that a Mitch Marner is not the first choice, preferring to go after Artemi Panarin, Matt Duchene or Mark Stone. The Rangers could swing a deal for a Marner if the Leafs prefer a return in known players rather than draft picks. Whatever happens, it will be fun to watch.