New York Rangers: Assessing the competition for Jack Hughes
Despite all of the draft picks acquired by the New York Rangers in trade deadline deals, the most important pick remains their own first rounder. It’s the only guaranteed lottery pick and could mean the difference between an accelerated rebuild and a much longer timeframe.
The New York Rangers have never been awful this season. They are rarely blown out and they have probably exceeded most expectations coming into the second year of a rebuilding process. Their first round draft pick this June may be the best opportunity for the team to get a stud prospect along the lines of Jack Hughes, Kaapo Kakko or Kirby Dach, a player who can step into the NHL immediately and have an impact.
The only problem is that there are fifteen other teams in the lottery sweepstakes. The good news is that of those fifteen teams, eight are in contention for the post season so it wasn’t a pure sell-off at the deadline. For the other seven teams, most trades involved draft picks and prospects, so they will be worse the rest of the season.
The Rangers haven’t been playing like a team that is looking for a top lottery pick. They have gone 10-7-2 over their last 19 games. It’s true that they have been inconsistent, but their never-say-die attitude and comebacks have been encouraging for Ranger fans. That doesn’t do much for their lottery hopes and they are currently ninth from the bottom the NHL standings. It’s a tight scrum of teams and they could easily be fifth or sixth worst by next week. Then again, they could also be 12th or 13th.
The Blueshirts traded three important players on their roster, but even without Hayes, Zuccarello and McQuaid, the team has played well in games against New Jersey and Washington. In essence the two forward are being replaced on the roster by Lias Andersson and newly acquired Brendan Lemieux. While the jury is out on Andersson and Lemieux will fill a bottom six role. it has been an opportunity for players like Jimmy Vesey and Vlad Namestnikov. Adam McQuaid‘s spot is being filled by Fredrik Claesson. It’s one of the benefits of the Rangers surplus of defensemen.
So coming out of deadline day you would have say that the Rangers are weaker, but still have a strong foundation and could play .500 hockey the rest of the season. One thing for sure, there is no tanking on this team.
Ottawa, Los Angeles, Detroit and Anaheim are slowly sinking to the bottom, there are ten teams within ten points of each other in the middle of the pack. It will be a race worth watching.
The standings (Worst is first)
Teams GP W-L-OTL PTS ROW
1. Ottawa 62 22-35-5 49 22
2. Los Angeles 62 23-32-7 53 21
3. Detroit 63 23-31-9 55 21
4. Anaheim 63 24-30-9 57 21
5. New Jersey 61 25-30-8 58 24
6. Edmonton 60 26-29-7 59 23
7. Chicago 63 26-28-9 61 25
8. Vancouver 63 27-28-8 62 24
9. Rangers 62 27-26-9 63 21
10. Arizona 62 29-28-5 63 26
11. Florida 61 28-25-8 64 25
13. Philadelphia 62 29-26-7 65 27
12. Colorado 63 27-24-12 66 27
14. Buffalo 62 29-25-8 66 25
15. Pittsburgh 62 32-22-8 72 31
Second East Wild Card Cut Line: 72 points
Second West Wild Card Cut Line: 66 points
We’ll take a look at the other lottery contenders to see how they did at the deadline and the ramifications for New York
Bottom Feeders
These teams are awful and did nothing to improve their current teams at the deadline. You could accuse the Senators of tanking, but they don’t even own their lottery pick. They are just bad.
Ottawa Senators – The Senators were among the most active traders and they had the best assets to offer. In four separate deals they gave up Matt Duchene, Mark Stone and Ryan Dzingel. Duchene and Stone were game changers and are irreplaceable in their lineup. The Senators will fill their spots with Brian Gibbons, and former Rangers Anthony Duclair and Oscar Lindberg along with some prospects. It’s time to start conceding the worst record in the NHL to the Senators and the best shot at a top three lottery pick for the Colorado Avalanche.
Los Angeles Kings – The Kings made their moves early, swapping Carl Hagelin, Nate Thompson, Oscar Fantenberg and Jake Muzzin in exchange for prospects and picks. The Kings have lost eight in a row and are in a freefall. They may not sink to Ottawa’s level, but they are bad. The only good news for the Rangers is that there were unable to move Ilya Kovalchuk, which would have crippled the team even more.
Detroit Red Wings – Detroit made only two moves, but gave up two important moving parts. They traded scoring winger Gustav Nyquist to San Jose and speedy defenseman Nick Jensen to Washington. In exchange, defenseman Madison Bowery came over from the Capitals and should step into the lineup. The Wings have lost five in a row and won only two of their last ten. They should be battling the Kings and Senators for the bottom spot.
Anaheim Ducks – This has been the season from hell for Anaheim and it looks to get worse with the trade of Brandon Montour to Buffalo. Losing a top four defenseman is going to make this season even worse.
Surrendering
This would be the category that you would put the Rangers. Knowing that the playoffs are impossible, trade away assets and get the most value.
Florida Panthers – The Panthers were very active in the trade market, making six deals in February alone. Out the door was Derick Brassard, Bogdan Kiselevich,Tomas Jurco,Jean-Sebastien Dea, Jared McCann and Nick Bjugstad. Coming back were Riley Sheahan, Cliff Pu and Chris Wideman. Florida has more points than the Rangers. They will definitely be lottery rivals for New York.
New Jersey Devils -The Devils know that they are going nowhere and dealt Ben Lovejoy, Brian Boyle, Marcus Johansson and Keith Kincaid for a bevy of draft picks. They have been awful this season and should be residing among the bottom feeders, but the word is that Taylor Hall is due to return to the lineup and getting him back should raise the level of New Jersey’s play substantially.
Philadelphia Flyers – By trading Wayne Simmonds at the last minute the Flyers threw in the towel and accepted that they are betting off with some return. They are still clinging to hopes of making the playoffs and by acquiring Ryan Hartman and Cam Talbot, they got some NHL talent in return.
Standing pat
There were a number of teams who didn’t partake in the trading frenzy, mostly teams from the Western Conference where they are still in playoff contention.
Chicago Blackhawks – The Hawks bid deal was acquiring Peter Holland from the Rangers. That means that a team five points out of a playoff spot didn’t want to gut their roster. Chicago is only two points behind the Rangers and they still believe that the playoffs are possible. More power to them.
Arizona Coyotes – The only transaction for Arizona was when they send pending UFA Jordan Weal to Montreal. Weal wasn’t a huge loss having scored only one goal and they picked a veteran defenseman in Michael Chaput. Arizona has the same number of points as the Rangers, but are only three points out of the wild card. They will competitive the rest of the season.
Edmonton Oilers – The Oilers are in a weird position. They are still theoretically in contention for a playoff spot, but they have an interim GM and a horrible track record. Their lack of activity at the deadline was probably more a result of the management uncertainty, but Edmonton should continue to play as they have all season. If they do, they could pass the Rangers in the standings.
Looking to improve
The teams that made moves to improve their rosters still believe that they are playoff contenders. Only Buffalo falls into that category in the East, but the West is a fire drill. It’s all good news for the Rangers as these team will continue to play to win.
Vancouver Canucks – The Canucks have been on the playoff cusp since the season started and have to see their trade of Erik Gudbranson to Pittsburgh as an improvement. Gudbranson has been a disappointment since his acquisition from Florida and in Tanner Pearson, the Canucks get a consistent, veteran scorer. Vancouver is not out of the playoff race yet as they are four points shy of the wild card.
Buffalo Sabres – The Sabres were the darlings of the Eastern Conference and are still in playoff contention Their acquisition of defenseman Brandon Montour is a clear sign that they are going for it. They also gave no thought to trading scoring whiz Jeff Skinner though he will be unrestricted this summer. Six points out, they have a hill to climb, but if they get hot at the right time anything can happen.
Colorado Avalanche – On paper, Colorado should not be out of the playoffs. They only made one trade at the deadline, but it was a good one, getting Derick Brassard from Florida for draft picks. The Avs really have nothing to lose going to a playoff berth since they own the Senators lottery pick already.
Pittsburgh Penguins – Today, the Pens are out of the playoff picture. They have been playing hopscotch with the Carolina Hurricanes for weeks. They took a flyer in their acquisition of Erik Gudbranson for Tanner Pearson, hoping to solidify their defense for a playoff run.
Carolina Hurricanes – I am including them in this list although they are currently in a wild card spot. They have the same number of points as the Penguins, but own the tiebreaker. The Canes made a big move in January, acquiring Nino Niederreiter for Victor Rask, a deal that has paid many benefits already. Perhaps the biggest news was the deal that they didn’t make as they kept pending UFA Michael Ferland.
Predictions
It’s reasonable to assume that the teams that are in the playoff hunt will continue to win games, probably more than the Rangers. Enough lottery contenders either stood pat or improved to believe that the Rangers have a really decent chance of finished near the bottom of the league, only ahead of the bottom feeders.
It makes a big difference. Today, with the Rangers with the ninth worst record in the league, they have a 16% chance at a top three pick. They would have no chance at a 4th to 8th pick and an 84% shot at staying with the ninth pick or dropping as low as 12th.
If they can get to the fifth worst slot, they would have a 26% shot a top three pick. They would have a 74% chance of getting a pick from 5-8. It really matters. In all likelihood, it will be a replay of last season when the team finished 8th worst and dropped to the ninth pick in the draft.