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New York Rangers: A key week for the lottery standings

By Steve Paulus |
DETROIT, MI - MARCH 07: Pavel Buchnevich #89 of the New York Rangers pounds gloves with teammates on the bench following his first period goal during an NHL game against the Detroit Red Wings at Little Caesars Arena on March 7, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Dave Reginek/NHLI via Getty Images)
DETROIT, MI - MARCH 07: Pavel Buchnevich #89 of the New York Rangers pounds gloves with teammates on the bench following his first period goal during an NHL game against the Detroit Red Wings at Little Caesars Arena on March 7, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Dave Reginek/NHLI via Getty Images)
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DETROIT, MI – MARCH 07: Pavel Buchnevich #89 of the New York Rangers celebrates his third period goal with teammates Tony DeAngelo #77 and Brady Skjei #76 during an NHL game against the Detroit Red Wings at Little Caesars Arena on March 7, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Dave Reginek/NHLI via Getty Images)
DETROIT, MI – MARCH 07: Pavel Buchnevich #89 of the New York Rangers celebrates his third period goal with teammates Tony DeAngelo #77 and Brady Skjei #76 during an NHL game against the Detroit Red Wings at Little Caesars Arena on March 7, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Dave Reginek/NHLI via Getty Images) /

The next week will play an important role in where the New York Rangers finish in the standings and what their draft lottery position will be.

Face it, the New York Rangers are going nowhere this season.  For all of the brave talk about learning how to win and building for next season and for all of the pleasure Ranger fans can take from hard fought losses to quality teams, if adding a half dozen points to the final season total costs the Rangers a top five pick, it will be a waste.

Tanking is a dirty word, but it can manifest itself in many ways.  Thursday night the Red Wings played without Dylan Larkin and Mike Green, both out with issues that are undoubtedly real, but would have been disregarded if the Wings were in a playoff battle.

The New Jersey Devils have twelve  players injured going into this weekend.  While they range from Taylor Hall‘s knee surgery to Miles Woods‘ fractured ankle, there are a series of injuries that could be classified as marginal.

One benefit of the Western Conference insanity is that several of the Rangers’ key rivals for lottery positioning are still in the playoff race.  Edmonton, Vancouver, Chicago, Arizona and Colorado all have something to play for and will continue for at least a few more games.

The Rangers play New Jersey at the Garden on Saturday, then embark on the last long road trip of the season with games in Edmonton, Vancouver, Calgary and Minnesota.  After the road trip they will have ten more games, with six of them against teams desperate for playoff positioning.

In “The Athletic’s” daily projection of the final standings, the Rangers are expected to finish seventh from the bottom, with only one point separating them from 6th place Vancouver.  They project 5th place Anaheim to finish five points worse than New York. So, it looks like a finish anywhere from 6th to 8th from the bottom.

What it means

Tankathon.com tracks the odds for teams in the draft lottery.   Here’s the difference in the odds of getting a top pick based on final standings.

Rangers finish 8th worst : 19% top three pick
1st pick: 6.0%
2nd pick:  6.3%
3rd pick: 6.7%
Eighth pick:  36.8%
Ninth pick:  36%
10th pick: 7.8%
11th pick: 0.4%

Rangers finish 6th worst:  23.3% top three pick
1st pick: 7.5%
2nd pick:  7.8%
3rd pick: 8.0%
Sixth pick:  16.3%
Seventh pick:  38.9%
Eighth pick: 19.4%
Ninth pick: 2.1%

But look at the odds if they can actually crack the bottom five:

Rangers finish 5th worst:  26.1% top three pick
1st pick: 8.5%
2nd pick:  8.7%
3rd pick: 8.9%
Fifth pick: 8.4%
Sixth pick:  34.5%
Seventh pick:  26.7%
Eighth pick: 4.3%

Fifth from the bottom and they have a 34.5% chance of a top five pick and history has shown that a top five pick is pretty much a guaranteed impact NHL player.

DETROIT, MI – MARCH 07: Tyler Bertuzzi #59 of the Detroit Red Wings scores a second period goal past goaltender Henrik Lundqvist #30 of the New York Rangers as Tony DeAngelo #77 of the Rangers looks for the rebound during an NHL game at Little Caesars Arena on March 7, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Dave Reginek/NHLI via Getty Images)
DETROIT, MI – MARCH 07: Tyler Bertuzzi #59 of the Detroit Red Wings scores a second period goal past goaltender Henrik Lundqvist #30 of the New York Rangers as Tony DeAngelo #77 of the Rangers looks for the rebound during an NHL game at Little Caesars Arena on March 7, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Dave Reginek/NHLI via Getty Images) /

The Standings

Going into Friday’s action, the Rangers are sitting in 8th place, only one point better than both Chicago and Vancouver.  Edmonton beat the Canucks 3-2 so they moved into sole possession of 9th place.

For scoreboard watchers, the disappointment of the night was the Boston-Florida game.The Bruins scored twice in the last minute of the game to steal a win from the Panthers.  Florida is only two points better than New York, so that was a big game for the Rangers.

The Blackhawks took the Sabres to overtime, winning 5-4 in a shootout.  That helped the Rangers as Chicago moved within a point of the Blueshirts and it kept Buffalo three points ahead of the Rangers.  Even bigger was the Arizona 2-0 upset over Calgary as it moved the Coyotes five points ahead of New York, a very sizable gap that they will probably not be able to make up.

The standings (Worst is first)

Teams                    GP      W-L-OTL    PT    ROW
1. Ottawa               68     23-39-6       52     23
2. Los Angeles      67     24-35-8       56     22
3. Detroit                67     24-33-10    58     21
4. New Jersey        67     25-33-9      59     24
5. Anaheim             68     26-33-9      61     23
6.  Vancouver        68     28-31-9       65     25
7. Chicago              67     28-30-9       65     26
8. Rangers             67    27-28-12      66    21
9.  Edmonton        67     30-30-7       67    27
10. Florida             67     28-27-12     68    25
11.  Buffalo           67    30-28-9        69     26
12.  Colorado        68     29-27-12     70     28
13.  Arizona           67     33-29-5       71     29
14. Philadelphia   67     32-27-8       72     30
15. Columbus       67     37-27-3        77     36

Second East Wild Card Cut Line:  79 points
Second West Wild Card Cut Line:  74 points

Who to root for:

Wild @ Panthers – Florida sits only two points better than New York so a Panthers win will help the Rangers. The Wild have been hot lately (6-2-2) and are clinging to a three point margin in the last wild card spot.  This will be a tough game for the Panthers, but root for them to win.

Devils @ Capitals – The Capitals are tied for first in the Metropolitan Division with the Islanders and have a lot to play for.  As mentioned, the Devils are scratching players left and right.  There is no way the Devils win this game.

Canadiens @ Ducks  – This disastrous season for Anaheim continues.  Meanwhile, Montreal needs a win to open a four point gap on the Blue Jackets.  A Ducks win will move them within three points of the Rangers so root for Anaheim to get an improbable win.

DETROIT, MI – MARCH 07: Neal Pionk #44 of the New York Rangers skates with the puck along the boards followed by Christoffer Ehn #70 of the Detroit Red Wings during an NHL game at Little Caesars Arena on March 7, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Dave Reginek/NHLI via Getty Images)
DETROIT, MI – MARCH 07: Neal Pionk #44 of the New York Rangers skates with the puck along the boards followed by Christoffer Ehn #70 of the Detroit Red Wings during an NHL game at Little Caesars Arena on March 7, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Dave Reginek/NHLI via Getty Images) /

Notes on the Detroit game

We didn’t do a full recap of the game versus the Red Wings so here are some thoughts. It was notable as a comeback game for Henrik Lundqvist and a continuation of the revival of Pavel Buchnevich.

  • There is something going on with Chris Kreider.  He played barely 14 minutes and was benched for extended periods in the last two periods. He has scored only two goals in his last fifteen games and has one assist in his last five games.  At a time when a veteran player would be expected to rise to a leadership role, he has basically vanished. It’s disappointing and considering his contractual status, it’s even more perplexing. If he is hurt, that could explain it, but it it appears he is not. David Quinn basically said that others were playing better.
  • Kevin Shattenkirk was a healthy scratch because of a slip in his play.  He joined Fredrik Claesson and Connor Brickley in the press box.

    • If there was ever an argument for the Rangers to try to re-sign

    Mats Zuccarello

    if he is willing to take a hometown “discount” it is the effect his departure has had on the Rangers’ top line.  Zibanejad is an exceptional talent, but surrounded by mediocrity, he is reduced to trying to do too much.  He played much of the last two periods with

    Filip Chytil

    and

    Boo Nieves

    .  With only one goal in his last nine games (eight without Zuccarello), his season is crashing to a halt and you could see the frustration in his postgame interview.

    You want another argument for re-signing Mats Zuccarello?  The power play has been god awful, scoreless in their last 16 chances.  While an inept power play helps their lottery hopes, this is getting ridiculous.

    As bad as the power play has been, the penalty kill has excelled.  They have killed off their last 16 penalties and have allowed only two power play goals in their last seven games.

  • Neal Pionk had another tough game and he could find himself a trade chip this summer. With the resurgence of Tony DeAngelo and the positive debuts of Libor Hajek and Ryan Lindgren, the team will find itself with a surplus of defensemen next season. DeAngelo has issues that make him a doubtful trade target and there is little or no chance of dealing Shattenkirk, Smith or Staal.   Pionk may be Jeff Gorton’s best option as he looks to improve this team by trade.
  • There’s been a lot of discussion on this site about the future of Ranger goaltending.  With the possibility of three NHL quality goalies in the organization next season (Lundqvist, Alexandar Georgiev and Igor Shestyorkin), what are the odds that one will be moved?  The good news is that the Rangers don’t have to have the answers before the season starts.  In all likelihood, the team will wait and see if Shestyorkin is ready and will probably give him his North American start in the AHL.  if he lives up to the hype, the team will probably  look to deal Georgiev.  As good as the young Bulgarian is, back-up goaltenders in the NHL are not hard to find and a Lundqvist/Shestyorkin combo is what we will see for the next two years.  And no, Lundqvist is not going to waive his no movement clause or terminate his contract and we shouldn’t criticize him for not doing so.

    • Pavel Buchnevich has already set a career high in goals scored with 15, but he is well off his career average in assists.  In fact, this could be the first season in his professional career (KHL and NHL) that he has more goals than assists.  A RFA after this season, he has a lot to play for over the last 15 games of the season.

    Brendan Lemieux had a two assist game and is looking to be one of the steals of the trade deadline. He has a goal and two assists, same as Kevin Hayes.

    Ponder this.  The Colorado Avalanche are out of the playoffs right now, meaning that they could very possibly end up with the top two picks in the NHL Entry Draft if the ping pong balls fall their way.

  • Ponder this too.  The Columbus Blue Jackets rolled the dice and went all in for the playoffs this season.  They are two points out of a wild card spot and they could end up missing the playoffs and losing Artemi Panarin, Sergei Bobrovsky, Matt Duchene, Ryan Dzingel and Adam McQuaid to free agency along with the Anthony Duclair, Julius Bergman, Vitaly Abramov and Jonathan Davidsson as well as the first, fourth and seventh 2019 draft picks as well as their second round picks in 2020 and 2021, all given up in trades.  Yikes.

    • Next. Tony DeAngelo's growth shows hope. dark

    So, what is more important?  Is it a handful of wins to finish up the season and restore some self esteem to a battered bunch of Blueshirts or is it a top five pick who will be an NHL-ready impact player in less than a year?  Don’t forget that in 2017 the difference between the 5th and 7th picks in the draft was Elias Pettersson and Lias Andersson.

    Feel free to weigh in.

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