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New York Rangers: A key week for the lottery standings

By Steve Paulus

DETROIT, MI - MARCH 07: Pavel Buchnevich #89 of the New York Rangers pounds gloves with teammates on the bench following his first period goal during an NHL game against the Detroit Red Wings at Little Caesars Arena on March 7, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Dave Reginek/NHLI via Getty Images)
DETROIT, MI - MARCH 07: Pavel Buchnevich #89 of the New York Rangers pounds gloves with teammates on the bench following his first period goal during an NHL game against the Detroit Red Wings at Little Caesars Arena on March 7, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Dave Reginek/NHLI via Getty Images) /
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DETROIT, MI – MARCH 07: Pavel Buchnevich #89 of the New York Rangers celebrates his third period goal with teammates Tony DeAngelo #77 and Brady Skjei #76 during an NHL game against the Detroit Red Wings at Little Caesars Arena on March 7, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Dave Reginek/NHLI via Getty Images)
DETROIT, MI – MARCH 07: Pavel Buchnevich #89 of the New York Rangers celebrates his third period goal with teammates Tony DeAngelo #77 and Brady Skjei #76 during an NHL game against the Detroit Red Wings at Little Caesars Arena on March 7, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Dave Reginek/NHLI via Getty Images) /

The next week will play an important role in where the New York Rangers finish in the standings and what their draft lottery position will be.

Face it, the New York Rangers are going nowhere this season.  For all of the brave talk about learning how to win and building for next season and for all of the pleasure Ranger fans can take from hard fought losses to quality teams, if adding a half dozen points to the final season total costs the Rangers a top five pick, it will be a waste.

Tanking is a dirty word, but it can manifest itself in many ways.  Thursday night the Red Wings played without Dylan Larkin and Mike Green, both out with issues that are undoubtedly real, but would have been disregarded if the Wings were in a playoff battle.

The New Jersey Devils have twelve  players injured going into this weekend.  While they range from Taylor Hall‘s knee surgery to Miles Woods‘ fractured ankle, there are a series of injuries that could be classified as marginal.

One benefit of the Western Conference insanity is that several of the Rangers’ key rivals for lottery positioning are still in the playoff race.  Edmonton, Vancouver, Chicago, Arizona and Colorado all have something to play for and will continue for at least a few more games.

The Rangers play New Jersey at the Garden on Saturday, then embark on the last long road trip of the season with games in Edmonton, Vancouver, Calgary and Minnesota.  After the road trip they will have ten more games, with six of them against teams desperate for playoff positioning.

In “The Athletic’s” daily projection of the final standings, the Rangers are expected to finish seventh from the bottom, with only one point separating them from 6th place Vancouver.  They project 5th place Anaheim to finish five points worse than New York. So, it looks like a finish anywhere from 6th to 8th from the bottom.

What it means

Tankathon.com tracks the odds for teams in the draft lottery.   Here’s the difference in the odds of getting a top pick based on final standings.

Rangers finish 8th worst : 19% top three pick
1st pick: 6.0%
2nd pick:  6.3%
3rd pick: 6.7%
Eighth pick:  36.8%
Ninth pick:  36%
10th pick: 7.8%
11th pick: 0.4%

Rangers finish 6th worst:  23.3% top three pick
1st pick: 7.5%
2nd pick:  7.8%
3rd pick: 8.0%
Sixth pick:  16.3%
Seventh pick:  38.9%
Eighth pick: 19.4%
Ninth pick: 2.1%

But look at the odds if they can actually crack the bottom five:

Rangers finish 5th worst:  26.1% top three pick
1st pick: 8.5%
2nd pick:  8.7%
3rd pick: 8.9%
Fifth pick: 8.4%
Sixth pick:  34.5%
Seventh pick:  26.7%
Eighth pick: 4.3%

Fifth from the bottom and they have a 34.5% chance of a top five pick and history has shown that a top five pick is pretty much a guaranteed impact NHL player.

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