Even though the New York Rangers are in the midst of building a sustainable roster for the long-term, a quick eye test out west shows just how far away it is from returning to contender status.
Every couple of years, the balance of power in the National Hockey League swings from one conference to another. Even though an Eastern conference team has won the last three Stanley Cups and the Tampa Bay Lightning won the President’s Trophy with nine games to go in the season, it’s safe to say that the league has swung back towards the Western Conference.
With a handful of teams like the San Jose Sharks, Calgary Flames, Winnipeg Jets, Nashville Predators and Vegas Golden Knights all boasting considerable depth and elite talent all over the lineup this year’s cup winner will likely capture the best trophy in professional sports.
In professional sports, there is a distinct difference between a contender and pretender. This is often what causes an okay team to fall off of a cliff a lot faster than anticipated. If a front office deludes itself into thinking that it can win the Stanley Cup with just one or two moves it will mortgage the future of the team when it doesn’t have a real chance.
Think of the 2015-2016 New York Rangers, a team coming off of two deep playoff runs but had obviously lost some important talent. New York’s executives thought that trading for veteran forward Eric Staal would be enough to push the team through the postseason because of the talent it already had in place.
Instead, Staal lasted 20 games with New York in which he recorded a grand total of three points. The eventual Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins bounced the Rangers in five ugly games during the first round and ended the team’s season early.
This brings us to the current state of the league, there is clearly an upper echelon of teams that are real contenders. Those five Western Conference teams and the Lightning are teams that the rest of the sport is chasing to compete with.
So much depth
On Monday night, the Sharks took on the Golden Knights and one thing stood out to me more than anything else, both teams have four lines that can score at any given moment. Even though the visiting Golden Knights ran riot over the Sharks and won 7-3, there are takeaways that apply to the Rangers.
First, Vegas had their doors blown off in terms of possession, San Jose had 17 more scoring chances for than the Knights. Yet, Vegas was able to weather that storm and actually create a decent amount of high danger scoring chances. Just because they were being dramatically outshot it did not knock the team out of the game.
Vegas is able to do so because of its high-end talent. It’s hard to fake their way through the recent stretch in which the Golden Knights have won nine of its last ten games. Since the acquisition of forward Mark Stone at the trade deadline, the team’s play has taken a noticeable jump. Adding a talented player to a solid lineup just pushes other players down the depth chart creating depth.
Even the Sharks who dictated play and still lost by four boasts serious depth. Going down the middle with Timo Meier, Logan Couture, Joe Thornton and even Joe Pavelski at times enables San Jose to start with an advantage against most if not all teams. There’s simply too much talent on the Sharks roster for the majority of teams in the league and that doesn’t even scratch the surface.
The blue line
Simply put, the Rangers defense is one of the worst units in the entire league. While individual players like Brady Skjei, Kevin Shattenkirk and Tony DeAngelo have all had solid stretches over the course of the season, there is an overall systemic issue. None of these three defensemen play that true number one defenseman role and it throws off the team’s depth.
With no singular talent to lean on in key situations, the Rangers’ defense is often a kitchen sink effort. Players like Brendan Smith, Neal Pionk and Marc Staal are left sliding across the ice trying to break up odd-man rushes from a position of weakness.
In the Western Conference, all of these contenders have a shutdown top pair, not just a number one defenseman. When the game is tight, those team’s coaches know they role out their top pair every other shift in the third period.
San Jose runs with a combination of Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson and Marc Edward-Vlasic when the game is on the line. Nashville has P.K. Subban, Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis and Mattias Ekholm to survive the postseason.
In a realistic estimation, any of Skjei, Shattenkirk or DeAngelo would likely fit into one of these contender’s defense as a second or third pair defensemen. If the Rangers ever hope to truly hang with these upper echelon teams, there is significant talent accumulation to be done.
The Philosophy
As of now, the Rangers are still in the building stage of organizational construction. The front office is taking flyers on reclamation projects like DeAngelo and Ryan Strome to try and salvage talent at below market value. There is still significant work to be done with the most pressing need being a top pair defenseman to give the unit as a whole a sense of balance.
New York’s front office cannot lose sight of the overall goal which is long term success, not making the playoffs as soon as possible. Getting back to the playoffs next year would be nice, but it’s pointless in the grand scheme of things. The team this decade won the most playoff games of any organization to not win the Stanley Cup.
Building a sustainable team is the biggest test of an executive’s skill. Making the playoffs one time isn’t impossible. Making deep postseason runs and having a realistic chance of winning the Stanley Cup over a multi-year period is an attainable goal. Winning it actually requires some luck and a good situation.
The five western conference teams and the Lightning are in another tier all on their own. It takes courage to admit that being middle of the pack and a fringe playoff team doesn’t accomplish anything. Roster construction is an art, the Rangers have a blank canvas and Mika Zibanejad.