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New York Rangers: How important is a top five pick?

By Steve Paulus

TORONTO, ON - APRIL 29: NHL official loads the lottery ball machine during the NHL Draft Lottery at the CBC Studios in Toronto, Ontario, Canada on April 29, 2017. (Photo by Kevin Sousa/NHLI via Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON - APRIL 29: NHL official loads the lottery ball machine during the NHL Draft Lottery at the CBC Studios in Toronto, Ontario, Canada on April 29, 2017. (Photo by Kevin Sousa/NHLI via Getty Images) /
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VANCOUVER, BC – MARCH 13: New York Rangers Center Mika Zibanejad (93) waits for a face-off during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on March 13, 2019 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. Vancouver won 4-1. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
VANCOUVER, BC – MARCH 13: New York Rangers Center Mika Zibanejad (93) waits for a face-off during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on March 13, 2019 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. Vancouver won 4-1. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

Picks 6-10: The elite

In all likelihood, once the ping pong balls have been drawn the Rangers will end up with a pick somewhere between sixth and ninth.  They have a 76% chance of ending up in that range as of today according to tankathon.com.  

Looking at the numbers from that ten year period none of the superstars were picks 6-10. There were ten players who made the elite list from those selections.  Those players include Mikko Rantanen, Sean Monahan, Mark Scheifele, Jeff Skinner, Sean Couturier, Dougie Hamilton, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Nazem Kadri, Logan Couture and Jakub Voracek.  None of those players qualify in the superstar category or look to be moving up into that category.

There are a number of player who could end up qualifying as elite players who have not been in the league long enough, including William Nylander, Matthew Tkachuk, Mikhail Sergachev, Zach Werenski and the Rangers’ own Mika Zibanejad.

At any rate, that means 15 out of 50 players that qualify as elite were taken with the sixth to tenth picks in the entry draft or 30 percent.

Picks 6-10: The rest

The odds of picking a lemon increase when the selection is 6-10.   Two of the fifty never made it to the NHL (Scott Glennie and Zach Hamill).  Four players have already hung up their skates and called it quits.  Three left the NHL and are playing in Europe and one is toiling in the AHL.  That player happens to be Dylan McIlrath. That means ten players (20 percent) of the 50 players never made an impact in the NHL.

Two players are 2016 draftees who aren’t NHL ready year (Clayton Keller, Alexander Nylander)

25 players selected 6-10 are in the NHL and are having serviceable careers.  They range from borderline elite players like Ivan Provorov, Matt Dumba and Jacob Trouba to journeymen like Sam Gagner and Derrick Pouliot.

Picks 6-10: The numbers

  • Odds of picking a superstar:  zero
  • Odds of picking an elite player: 30 percent
  • Odds of picking a solid NHL player: 50 percent
  • Odds of a complete bust:  20 percent
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