At 23-years-old Russian forward Pavel Buchnevich is still developing as a talent. In his last eight games, the winger has recorded six points including five goals.
Contrary to popular belief, NHL players are not finished products at age 23. In fact, there are advanced aging curves where a player doesn’t have their best season in terms of production until their mid or late 20s. It’s a matter of talent finding the right situation to work in to thrive and contribute to a team’s success.
For the New York Rangers to return to the postseason in the not so distant future, it’s going to require patience as young players find their footing. Even though forward Pavel Buchnevich has been in the Ranger orbit for the better part of three NHL seasons, he’s only played a grand total of 172 games at the top level.
Whether it was the core injury that nagged him during his rookie season or being healthy scratched in favor of an enforcer, he just hasn’t been able to fly in New York. There are short spurts of what looks to be high-end talent when he’s played with talented players. There’s no disputing the success he’s had playing with Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider.
Even though New York is in the midst of a second straight season that will not bring playoff hockey to Madison Square Garden, meaningful progress towards a team that will is being made. Eight games is an extremely small stretch to focus on to say that a corner was turned in Buchnevich’s progression.
Yet, there’s a common thread in all of the games that Buchnevich gets on the score sheet. The Russian is in a high danger scoring area and around the net instead of at the periphery of play near the half boards or the circle. Good things happen for those who drive the net.
March 7th VS Detroit
In this early March game, Buchnevich found the back of the net twice in a game that the Rangers ultimately lost in a shootout. Even though coach Quinn has occasionally kept Buchnevich out of New York’s top six or scratched him at some points, the forward has typically responded well to the challenge.
In this game, Buchnevich’s two goals were the fruits of positioning.
Much of New York’s offensive struggles this season stem from a focus on looking for the perfect play. While crisscrossing the net mouth twice to get the goalie off balance is more likely to result in a goal, it’s also extremely difficult to do which makes it a lower percent chance of actually happening.
The closer a player is to the net, the more high percentage of a play a particular shot is. With the caveat that a redirected shot from the point is also technically high percentage play, but difficult to set up. That makes shots from within ten feet of the goal worth more in terms of replicable success.
The more likely a shot is to go in, the better the quality and more importantly, a better chance of finding the back of the net.
While Buchnevich’s power play goal came from a further distance it was also the result of a one-timer. So granted, while more difficult than the even-strength, it’s still a high percentage play than the typical 30-foot wrist shot because of the context of the shot. With a goalie in transition, it’s more difficult to make a save.
March 23rd vs Toronto and March 16th vs Minnesota
These two goals get lumped together because they come from almost the exact same spot on the ice. Right up in the goalies face on the edge of the crease, one tied the game against the Toronto Maple Leafs, the other was a power play goal down 4-1 in the third period against the Minnesota Wild.
But, in both instances, Buchnevich is in the mix of the play and making things happen instead of waiting for the play to find him.
With eight games to go, Buchnevich is on pace to hit the 20 goal mark with his .32 goals per game average. However, all it takes is one barn burner matchup with another team out of the playoff race to pad the stat sheet. Keep an eye out for next Monday’s matchup with the New Jersey Devils as the game that Buchnevich hits magic number 20.