New York Rangers: How much is Chris Kreider worth?
The New York Rangers face a tough decision when it comes to Chris Kreider. Extend him or trade him? His play this season hasn’t made the decision any easier.
The situation with Chris Kreider is very similar to the situation the New York Rangers faced with Kevin Hayes last summer. Kreider is entering the last year of a four year deal he signed in 2016 at an annual cap hit of $4.625 million per year. The Rangers have to decide if they want to extend his contract or let him enter his walk year with the likelihood of a trade deadline deal.
The difference with Hayes was that he was a Restricted Free Agent so the Rangers were in negotiations last summer on a long-term contract or a one year extension (they chose the latter). Inevitably, it led to Hayes’ trade to Winnipeg at the deadline.
The big issue with Hayes was money. He was ready and willing to stay in New York, but not at a salary the Rangers were willing to pay for the term he wanted. It’s exactly the same situation with Kreider.
There’s no doubt that Kreider would be happy to sign a longterm contract to remain a Ranger, but exactly how much is he worth? At a certain point, his value will not match the dollars he will ask for and that is where the rubber hits the road. Kreider has oozed potential for years, it’s time for the Rangers to decide if he will live up to the promise or if he will remain a decent top six forward, but not a star.
Kreider has done absolutely nothing to enhance his reputation this season. For a while, it looked like he was finally going to become the top foward Ranger fans had been waiting for. In the first 39 games of the season he had 20 goals and 11 assists for 31 points and he was headed for his first 40 goal season. Since New Year’s Day he has six goals and 12 assists for 18 points in 35 games. He will end up with the same kind of season he has had for the last six years. Even worse, in the 14 games he has played since Hayes and Zuccarello were taken out of the lineup, he has two goals and three assists.
The question is how much will Kreider ask for when seeking a long-term extension with the Rangers. Kevin Hayes was reportedly seeking a five year deal at $5.5 million per year, a number the Rangers weren’t willing to meet. Does Chris Kreider think he is worth more?
Some comparisons
It’s worth taking a look at some players similar to Kreider to see how much they have been paid. I picked seven players with similar statistics over the last three years. They all close in age and are under contract next season. The statistics listed are averages over three years: games played, goals per game, points per game. The contract number is the annual salary and how long the contract extends past next season.
Name G GPG PGP 2019-20
S.Couturier,26 76 0.34 0.82 $4.3m (+2)
J.Marchessault,28 78 0.35 0.79 $5m (+3)
J. Van Riemsdyk,29 76 0.41 0.72 $7m (+3)
M.Pacioretty, 30 70 0.36 0.70 $7m (+4)
E.Kane, 27 74 0.38 0.69 $7m (+4)
K. Palmieri, 28 73 0.35 0.68 $4.6m (+2)
C.Kreider, 27 70 0.34 0.67 $4.6m
B.Saad, 26 81 0.27 0.55 $6m (+2)
The results are interesting. Kreider is fairly durable, comparable to the other players. While his goals per game is lower than most on the list, it’s close. Same for points per game.
Of the eight players, half have long-term deals extending three or four years past next season. Three of the four deals are worth $7 million annually. The Jon Marchessault deal is a bargain at $5 million per season, but it is in Las Vegas, where there is no state income tax.
I would argue that Max Pacioretty, Evander Kane and James Van Riemsdyk are overpaid, but the latter two were unrestricted free agents and salary expectations would be higher. Only Pacioretty was in a Kreider-like situation as he was going into his walk year this season at $4.5 million per year and the Golden Knights wanted to lock him up long-term.
Sean Couturier, Kyle Palmieri and Brandon Saad all signed their deals a few years ago and were locked up with team-friendly contracts (maybe not Saad).
So, what about Kreider?
If you look at the list, based on his statistics, a reasonable deal from the Rangers’ perspective would be around $5.5 million for five years. Those are the numbers that Kevin Hayes was seeking. and the Blueshirts were not willing to pay. Anything more than that would be a non-starter and the team should let him play out his deal and trade him at the deadline.
The problem is that Kreider and his agent will undoubtedly look at the windfalls for Pacioretty, Van Riemsdyk and Kane and ask for more than $5.5 million. The Rangers have established a threshold with the $5.35 million that they are paying Mika Zibanejad. I doubt there is anyone who believes that Chris Kreider deserves to be be paid more than Zibanejad, the team’s best player.
Something to watch
There is no rush to get Kreider under contract. Theoretically, they have the option of extending him right up to the trade deadline next February. A negotiation worth watching will be what the Islanders do with Anders Lee. Lee is 28 years old and he has averaged 0.41 GPG, slightly more than Kreider, and 0.67 PGP, exactly the same as Kreider.
Lee is an unrestricted free agent and is coming off a three year deal that paid him $3.75 million. All indications are that the team captain wants to remain an Islander and the Isles want him back. He hit the 40 goal mark last season and had 34 goals the year before, numbers Kreider has not come close to achieving. Offensively, Lee is having a bit of a down year this season, but considering the Islanders’ success and focus on defense, it isn’t a surprise.
The options
There are three options facing the Rangers when it comes to Kreider.
- Sign him longterm – They should do this only if they can get him on their terms, at a salary comparable to what they are paying ZIbanejad. There should be no no-movement clauses in the deal.
- Trade him at the deadline – Kreider could be quite a trading chip at the deadline next February. As much of a disappointment he has been, power forwards with his speed and size who can score 25-30 goals a year are at a premium. He could garner a first round pick and more at the deadline.
- Trade him now – If the Rangers could find a team who wants him, depending on what the team does with free agency (Panarin), the Blueshirts could make him part of a package for a stud defenseman. Any team acquiring him would get him for one year at a bargain rate and would have the chance to extend him.
When Chris Kreider is on top of his game, he is a feared offensive threat. His strength and speed are tremendous and he can take over a game. The issue with him is that it hasn’t happened enough.
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The Rangers have waited six years for him to have that breakout season. Now, they have to decide if it is worth waiting for and at what price.
All salary statistics courtesy of capfriendly.com