New York Rangers: Why they should sign Erik Karlsson
The New York Rangers are expected to be active in the free agent market this summer. While there are some outstanding UFA’s available, there is one defenseman available whose upside is huge.
Artemi Panarin is the name you hear most often when you say the words unrestricted free agent and New York Rangers. The next name you hear is Erik Karlsson and both make perfect sense.
When it comes to Panarin, he would solve several dire needs for the Rangers. The team is offensively challenged with a impotent power play and no secondary scoring. Furthermore, their pipeline is pretty dry with most of the team’s hopes centered on 19-year old Vitali Kravtsov. Picture Mika Zibanejad flanked by Panarin and Pavel Buchnevich and the Ranger offense looks a lot better.
But everyone readily agrees that the Ranger defense is abysmal. There is nary a top pair defenseman to be found and while Jeff Gorton did a masterful job of restocking the prospect pool, K’Andre Miller, Nils Lundkvist and Joey Keane are years away from becoming impactful defensemen. Ryan Lindgren and Libor Hajek are closer, but it will be at least two years for them to reach their potential. It’s simply a fact that defensemen take longer to develop.
That’s the single biggest reason that Erik Karlsson makes a lot of sense for the Rangers. In one fell swoop, the team upgrades their defense with a game changing all-star. His excellence would be an example for the Rangers’ cadre of young players and he would stabilize the team’s biggest area of concern.
Reasons to do it
Besides the impact that Karlsson would have on the team defense, there is a simple fact of life in the National Hockey League. In order to win the Stanley Cup, it really helps to have a star defenseman. Looking back at the past 15 years of championship teams, the one common denominator is almost every team had a stud defenseman.
Here is the list: Kris Letang of the Penguins, Duncan Keith of the Blackhawks, Drew Doughty of the Kings, Nick Lindstrom of Detroit, Zdeno Chara of Boston and Scott Niedermayer of Anaheim.
The 2006 Carolina Hurricanes was the only team since the lockout to win the Cup without that quality stud defenseman. Last season’s Washington Capitols almost didn’t make the list, but John Carlson took on that role with 20 points in 24 games.
Karlsson will turn 29 in May. While it may seem folly for a rebuilding team to invest a long-term contract with a player just shy of 30, it’s also a fact that defensemen last longer. While they are slowing down, 35-year old Duncan Keith and 42-year old Zdeno Chara are still top flight defensemen and on most nights, better than anyone on the Ranger’s current roster.
While Karlsson has put in a lot of minutes, he isn’t a physical player and hasn’t taken the beating that would shorten his career expectations. It’s a fact that the number of games Karlsson has played in has dropped over the last three years, but the 22 games he has missed this season is due to a recurring groin injury that he didn’t give enough time to heal.
Playing for Ottawa also has meant that Karlsson’s seasons have been short. In nine years with the Senators, he made the playoffs only four times and went deep only once.
Despite missing those 22 games, Karlsson has 45 points, good for 14th among NHL defensemen. He is averaging 0.87 points per game, seventh best in the league. I don’t think the expectations are that team signing will get the Erik Karlsson who scored 21 goals in 2015, but he’s still a naster at the power play.
Finally, adding Erik Karlsson to the Rangers would be a gift for Henrik Lundqvist. The two played together for the Swedish national team and are friends. Connecting two of the greatest Swedish players of all time would be a fitting end to Lundqvist’s career.
Reasons to not do it
Karlsson will be very expensive. He is in the last year of a seven year contract he signed in 2012. He’s been making $6.5 million per year, a bargain for a two-time Norris Trophy winner. Since this is his last big payday, he will be looking to make a salary comparable to other defensemen of his ability. Here are the top five defenseman, by annual salary.
- P.K.Subban – $10 million salary, $9 million cap hit
- John Carlson – $12 million salary, $8 million cap hit
- Brent Burns – $10 million salary, $8 million cap hit
- Victor Hedman – $8 million salary, $7.9 million cap hit
- Shea Weber – $6 million salary, $.7.9 million cap hit
There’s no doubt that Karlsson will be looking for Subban money and will end up with a cap hit of around $8-9 million for at least 6-8 years. That’s a big commitment for a long time and there is no doubt the Rangers have little desire to be paying a 37-year old defenseman $8 million a year in 2027.
Think about the cap impact Henrik Lundqvist‘s salary has on the Rangers. While he is still the Rangers’ best player, Lundqvist’s salary is a burden.
While Karlsson doesn’t play an overly physical style, he has seen a decrease in games played for three straight years. That’s a downward trend that is disturbing. Karlsson hasn’t had any chronic health issues with his back or knees so that is a positive.
The other downward trend for Karlsson has been in scoring. After scoring 20 and 21 goals in 2013-15, he scored nine goals last season and this year, has scored only three. His assist totals have remained consistent.
Other options
The Montreal Canadiens did the Rangers a huge favor when they gift wrapped Ryan McDonagh and sent him to New York. Top notch defensemen are rarely traded. Of the 15 defensemen in the NHl who are paid more than Karlsson, nine are playing for the team that drafted them. Of the players who have changed teams, two were by free agency (Shattenkirk/Suter), two were swapped for each other (Weber/Subban), one was a salary dump (Phaneuf) and one was a McDonagh-like steal (Burns).
It’s pretty much a guarantee that a steal of a deal like that is not to be had so any fantasy of stealing Jacob Trouba from the Jets is exactly that, a fantasy. When it comes to UFA’s, there is no one on the market even close to Karlsson. Jake Gardiner has an upside and is only 27, but other than Gardiner, you’re talking Michael Del Zotto when you are exploring UFA defense men in their mid to late 20’s.
The verdict
The available UFA defense pool is slim in the coming years. Smart general managers are locking up their best players on long-term deals and that has made the available pool of UFA defensemen pretty meager.
In 2020-21 there is a tiny chance that Justin Faulk, Tyson Barrie or Torey Krug will be on the market. In 2021-22 it’s doubtful that Carolina will let Dougie Hamilton get to UFA status or Edmonton won’t lock up Adam Larsson. The Rangers could roll the dice and wait, but that’s risky. Karlsson is a sure thing.
Ranger fans will will never forget that Erik Karlsson was the prime reason that the Senators beat the Blueshirts in the 2016 playoffs. Despite two hairline fractures in his left heel, he was Ottawa’s leading scorer with two goals and seven points. He was a beast, averaging 27 minutes of ice time. In a series that the Rangers dominated, Karlsson was the difference for Ottawa.
There is absolutely no doubt that Erik Karlsson will be a star NHL defenseman for years to come. He has handled a year of controversy and uncertainty with professionalism and he has become an important player for the San Jose Sharks. While he seems to be enamored of life in the Bay Area, it does appear that he will make to free agency.
There will be many teams bidding for his services including the Islanders and Devils. The last thing the Rangers need is for Karlsson to land in their backyard playing for one of their archrivals.
Adding Erik Karlsson immediately takes the heat off the Rangers’ young defense corps to succeed before they are ready. Without a stud defenseman on the roster, the pressure on youngsters like Miller and Hajek will be unreasonable and the last thing that they need. All the pressure would be on Karlsson and he is used to it.
And that may be the best reason why the Rangers should go for it.