New York Rangers: Why they should sign Erik Karlsson
By Steve Paulus
Reasons to not do it
Karlsson will be very expensive. He is in the last year of a seven year contract he signed in 2012. He’s been making $6.5 million per year, a bargain for a two-time Norris Trophy winner. Since this is his last big payday, he will be looking to make a salary comparable to other defensemen of his ability. Here are the top five defenseman, by annual salary.
- P.K.Subban – $10 million salary, $9 million cap hit
- John Carlson – $12 million salary, $8 million cap hit
- Brent Burns – $10 million salary, $8 million cap hit
- Victor Hedman – $8 million salary, $7.9 million cap hit
- Shea Weber – $6 million salary, $.7.9 million cap hit
There’s no doubt that Karlsson will be looking for Subban money and will end up with a cap hit of around $8-9 million for at least 6-8 years. That’s a big commitment for a long time and there is no doubt the Rangers have little desire to be paying a 37-year old defenseman $8 million a year in 2027.
Think about the cap impact Henrik Lundqvist‘s salary has on the Rangers. While he is still the Rangers’ best player, Lundqvist’s salary is a burden.
While Karlsson doesn’t play an overly physical style, he has seen a decrease in games played for three straight years. That’s a downward trend that is disturbing. Karlsson hasn’t had any chronic health issues with his back or knees so that is a positive.
The other downward trend for Karlsson has been in scoring. After scoring 20 and 21 goals in 2013-15, he scored nine goals last season and this year, has scored only three. His assist totals have remained consistent.
Other options
The Montreal Canadiens did the Rangers a huge favor when they gift wrapped Ryan McDonagh and sent him to New York. Top notch defensemen are rarely traded. Of the 15 defensemen in the NHl who are paid more than Karlsson, nine are playing for the team that drafted them. Of the players who have changed teams, two were by free agency (Shattenkirk/Suter), two were swapped for each other (Weber/Subban), one was a salary dump (Phaneuf) and one was a McDonagh-like steal (Burns).
It’s pretty much a guarantee that a steal of a deal like that is not to be had so any fantasy of stealing Jacob Trouba from the Jets is exactly that, a fantasy. When it comes to UFA’s, there is no one on the market even close to Karlsson. Jake Gardiner has an upside and is only 27, but other than Gardiner, you’re talking Michael Del Zotto when you are exploring UFA defense men in their mid to late 20’s.
The verdict
The available UFA defense pool is slim in the coming years. Smart general managers are locking up their best players on long-term deals and that has made the available pool of UFA defensemen pretty meager.
In 2020-21 there is a tiny chance that Justin Faulk, Tyson Barrie or Torey Krug will be on the market. In 2021-22 it’s doubtful that Carolina will let Dougie Hamilton get to UFA status or Edmonton won’t lock up Adam Larsson. The Rangers could roll the dice and wait, but that’s risky. Karlsson is a sure thing.
Ranger fans will will never forget that Erik Karlsson was the prime reason that the Senators beat the Blueshirts in the 2016 playoffs. Despite two hairline fractures in his left heel, he was Ottawa’s leading scorer with two goals and seven points. He was a beast, averaging 27 minutes of ice time. In a series that the Rangers dominated, Karlsson was the difference for Ottawa.
There is absolutely no doubt that Erik Karlsson will be a star NHL defenseman for years to come. He has handled a year of controversy and uncertainty with professionalism and he has become an important player for the San Jose Sharks. While he seems to be enamored of life in the Bay Area, it does appear that he will make to free agency.
There will be many teams bidding for his services including the Islanders and Devils. The last thing the Rangers need is for Karlsson to land in their backyard playing for one of their archrivals.
Adding Erik Karlsson immediately takes the heat off the Rangers’ young defense corps to succeed before they are ready. Without a stud defenseman on the roster, the pressure on youngsters like Miller and Hajek will be unreasonable and the last thing that they need. All the pressure would be on Karlsson and he is used to it.
And that may be the best reason why the Rangers should go for it.