New York Rangers: Last day lottery scenarios

There is only one day left in the regular season for the New York Rangers and the rest of the NHL.  The final lottery standings are still to be determined.

The New York Rangers came away from their game with the Columbus Blue Jackets with one point and that has an effect on their lottery standings potential, making it impossible for them to finish fourth from the bottom. Going into Saturday’s game they can still finish anywhere from fifth to seventh from the bottom.

Here are the scenarios going into their season finale versus the Pittsburgh Penguins.

1. If they beat the Penguins, they can finish sixth or seventh in the lottery standings.   They finish sixth if Edmonton wins or gets to overtime and they finish seventh if Edmonton loses.
2. If they get one point against Pittsburgh they will finish sixth no matter what anyone else does.
3. If the Rangers lose to the Penguins, they will finish fifth from the bottom.  That’s because Detroit is playing Buffalo and one of those teams are guaranteed to get two points, tying them with the Rangers.  Both the Wings and Sabres own the ROW tiebreaker.

How important is finishing fifth?  Here are the draft odds finishing fifth courtesy of tankathon.com:

1. First pick:  8.5%
2. Second pick: 8.7%
3. Third pick:  8.9%
4. Fifth pick: 8.4%
5. Sixth pick: 34.5%
6. Seventh pick: 26.7%
7. Eighth pick: 4.3%

If they finish sixth, here are the odds:

1. First pick:  7.5%
2. Second pick: 7.8%
3. Third pick:  8.0%
4. Sixth pick: 26.3%
5. Seventh pick: 38.9%
6. Eighth pick: 19.4%
7. Ninth pick:  2.1%

Finally, if they finish seventh, here are the odds:

1. First pick:  6.5%
2. Second pick: 6.8%
3. Third pick:  7.1%
4. Seventh pick: 26.0%
5. Eighth pick: 39.5%
6. Ninth pick:  13.1%
7. Tenth pick:  1.0%

The standings (Worst is first)

Teams                    GR     W-L-OTL    PTS    ROW
1. *Ottawa              1     29-46-6      64     29
2. *Los Angeles     1     30-41-9       69    27
3. *New Jersey       1     30-41-10    70     27
4.  Buffalo               1     32-39-10    74     27
5. Detroit                1     32-39-10     74     29
6. Rangers              1     31-36-14    76     25
7.  Edmonton         1     34-38-9      77     31
8.  *Vancouver       1     35-36-10    80     29
9.  *Anaheim           0    35-37-10    80     31
10. *Philadelphia   1     37-36-8       82     34
11.  *Minnesota     1    37-35-9       83     36
12.  *Chicago          1    36-33-12     84     33
13. *Florida             1     36-33-12    84     33
14.  *Arizona           1     39-34-8      86     35
15. *Montreal         1      43-30-8      94     41
Asterisk means the Rangers cannot pass them in the standings.

Second East Wild Card Cut Line:  Playoff teams set
Second West Wild Card Cut Line:  Playoff teams set

Who to root for

Other than the Rangers game versus the Penguins, there is only one game that matters.   As for the Penguins, this is a very important game.  A Penguins loss combined with a Carolina win will drop the Penguins into the first wild card spot.  A Penguins win combined with an Islander loss will propel the Pens into second place in the Metropolitan Division and home ice advantage in the opening round against the Isles.

Oilers @ Flames – Edmonton ends their season with a battle of Alberta matchup with the Calgary Flames.  The Flames have little to play for, as they tune up for the playoffs.  The only benefit of a win will be that it means that they will have home ice advantage if they face the Boston Bruins in the Stanley Cup Finals.   The Oilers are playing for pride.  A win means the Rangers will finish 6th from the bottom even if they beat the Penguins.   If the Oilers lose, the Rangers will drop to 7th worst ahead of the Oilers if they beat Pittsburgh.

So, this is the last lottery look of this season.  I hope it has been helpful as we have tracked the tribulations of this team.  We’ll have full coverage of Tuesday’s draft lottery at Blue Line Station.