New York Rangers: Dodging a lottery bullet

PITTSBURGH, PA - APRIL 06: Vladislav Namestnikov #90 of the New York Rangers celebrates his short handed goal during the third period against the Pittsburgh Penguins at PPG Paints Arena on April 6, 2019 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/NHLI via Getty Images)
PITTSBURGH, PA - APRIL 06: Vladislav Namestnikov #90 of the New York Rangers celebrates his short handed goal during the third period against the Pittsburgh Penguins at PPG Paints Arena on April 6, 2019 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/NHLI via Getty Images)
PITTSBURGH, PA – APRIL 06: Brady Skjei #76 of the New York Rangers celebrates his goal with teammates during the third period against the Pittsburgh Penguins at PPG Paints Arena on April 6, 2019 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/NHLI via Getty Images)
PITTSBURGH, PA – APRIL 06: Brady Skjei #76 of the New York Rangers celebrates his goal with teammates during the third period against the Pittsburgh Penguins at PPG Paints Arena on April 6, 2019 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/NHLI via Getty Images)

The New York Rangers ended the 2018-19 season with the sixth worst record in the NHL.  Now the drama will shift to Tuesday night in Toronto when the lottery will decide which teams get the top three picks in the Entry Draft.

The New York Rangers beat the Pittsburgh Penguins in overtime, giving them two more points to finish with 78 on the season.   For a team that entered the last day of action in the NHL with a shot at the 5th worst record, it sure looked like they were going  to finish seventh.

The Rangers needed Edmonton to get a win against Calgary to remain in sixth and the Oilers obliged, with a 3-1 win to stay one point better than New York.

If the Rangers had lost, a fifth place finish was guaranteed as Detroit and Buffalo were playing each other so one of them would have finished with same point total as the Blueshirts, but both teams owned the ROW tiebreaker.  It was not to be as soon as the Rangers went to overtime.

If Edmonton had lost, the uproar from the fanbase would have been loud. Losing the fifth place finish has undoubtedly caused a lot of irritation.  It figures that this Ranger team would take three of a possible four points in their last two games.

So, the Rangers dodged a lottery bullet and ended up in sixth place.  All in all, it worked out  as well as one could hope.  The Rangers finished the season on a high note, they threw a scare in the Pittsburgh Penguins, and they added a chapter to the winning culture textbook they are trying to write.

With the sixth place finish, the team has a 23.3% shot at getting a top three pick.  The odds are greatest that they will slip one slot and pick seventh and there is a slim chance that they can drop as low as ninth.

The lottery odds

Here are the lottery odds for the sixth place finish:

In the category of non-tanking teams, New Jersey won in a shootout  4-3 over the Panthers when they could have dropped to second worst record with a loss.  The Sabres won their last two games to finish fifth overall after a March swoon.   And then there was the Rangers….

The final  standings (Worst is first)

Here’s how the 15 lottery eligible teams ended  up.

Teams                         W-L-OTL    PTS    ROW
1. Ottawa                   29-47-6      64     29
2. Los Angeles          31-41-9       71    28
3. New Jersey            31-41-10    72     28
4. Detroit                    32-40-10    74     29
5.  Buffalo                  33-39-10    76     28
6. Rangers                  32-36-14    78     26
7.  Edmonton             35-38-9      79     32
9.  Anaheim                35-37-10    80     31
8.  Vancouver             35-36-11    81     29
10. Philadelphia        37-37-8       82     34
11.  Minnesota          37-36-9       83     36
12.  Chicago               36-34-12     84     33
13. Florida                  36-32-14    86     33
14.  Arizona                39-35-8      86     35
15. Montreal              44-30-8      96     41

This will be the lowest pick the Rangers have earned (from standings and not through a trade) since 1998 when they selected Manny Malhotra seventh overall.

If you want to have some fun, go to tankathon.com.    They have a sim lottery feature and you can see where the Rangers will finish in a simulated lottery.  I did it ten times and the Rangers ended up with these picks:  First pick twice, third pick three times, sixth pick once, seventh pick twice, eighth pick once, ninth pick once. I’d take those odds.

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