New York Rangers: How much is too much at goaltender?

The New York Rangers were built around Henrik Lundqvist for much of the decade. Is it possible to win a Stanley Cup while paying a premium price for the goaltender position?

Roster construction at the NHL level is truly an art form and in the salary cap era there are but few Picassos. As the league is currently situated, the best method for designing a cup contender is building a roster centered around talent that’s paid below market value. As a rebuilding team, the New York Rangers are in a position to exploit this system.

Using Connor McDavid’s $12.5 million per year salary as a baseline, we can estimate that every ten points of offensive production are worth around $108,000 at the forward position. While this figure is a tad higher than the next lowest contract, it serves as a baseline for what elite talent is worth at the NHL level.

This brings us to the Rangers and goaltender Henrik Lundqvist. As the face of the franchise and arguably its signature player, the Swede has earned the sweetheart contract he’s currently under. When it was signed back in the 2014-2015 season, he was coming off of a year in which he was the backbone of a team that made it to the Stanley Cup Final.

However, when it was signed, the front office needed to realize that eventually, Lundqvist would begin to decline with age. While it’s difficult to blame the Swede for the last two seasons in which he’s struggled because of the team in front of him, it does raise the question, was the roster design set to fail from the start?

Around the league

Starting with the obvious, no I’m not saying extending Lundqvist during the 2014-2015 season was a mistake. In fact, the Swede was the single greatest force that kept the Rangers’ Stanley Cup window open as long as it was. But, it does raise the question, how do the other teams around the league value the position?

As it turns out, not too much.

Of the last five goaltenders to start in a Stanely Cup Finals, only two, Pekka Rinne and Braden Holtby made more than $6 million per season. Of the two, Holtby was the one that managed to win the Cup and provide value for his contract. When it comes to Rinne, the Predators’ longtime netminder’s postseason demons are well documented.

The other three goaltenders, Matt Murray, Marc-Andre Fleury and Martin Jones all made less than that $6 million figure. We’ll kick Murray out because he was on an entry-level contract and an outlier when the team made back to back Cup Finals. But, Jones and Fleury prove that a team can compete with an above average goalie on a palatable salary more so than the inverse.

What it means

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the Rangers paying Lundqvist for what he had done in the past as opposed to what he would do in the future hamstrung the organization’s ability to retain talent. It’s not unique to the goaltender as the same situation happened with both Dan Girardi and Marc Staal during the same regime.

Yet, there is a reason that both the Rangers and Montreal Canadiens, who pay its goaltender, Carey Price, the highest average salary in the league cannot get over the hump.

In today’s modern NHL which is oriented towards skill and speed, it’s hard to win with goaltending and defense. It’d be the equivalent of trying to win the Super Bowl in the NFL with an elite defense and a league average quarterback. The game has changed too much too quickly for old school philosophies to still work.

The Rangers owe it to Lundqvist to let him play out the final two years of his contract on the netminder’s term. But going forward, designing the organization around its forwards and defensemen will be an easier path to success.

Look at the teams poised to make a deep cup run this year. Every single contender features a goaltender that makes $7 million or less. While the million and a half dollar difference between Lundqvist and these contenders may not seem like a lot, every last bit of cap space is valuable and important.

Is Lundqvist really $1.5 million more valuable than Tuukka Rask is for the Bruins? $2.4 million more valuable than Holtby?

Eventually, the Rangers will need to set up a succession plan for Lundqvist. Based on the last several years of league history, it will be the successor on a below market value contract that leads the team to playoff success and not one on an unrestricted free agent deal.

Using either Igor Shestyorkin or Alexandar Georgiev as the building block for a team-oriented around its outward skaters is more cost effective. The goaltender is a position that a quality team cannot afford to overpay for in a salary cap league.

Chances are, if the Rangers are paying a goaltender more than $7 million per season, they won’t win the Stanley Cup.