New York Rangers: How this summer can go wrong

The New York Rangers’ front office is in position to set the team up for long-term success this summer. There is one major cause for concern that affects every single team with cap space.

The last 24 months of hockey have been the most difficult for the New York Rangers’ organization in more than 15 years. A team that was a model of sustainable success for so long had to be blown up and reset. The decision that Jeff Gorton and Glen Sather made in January of 2018 to sell off and build towards the future was not an easy one.

However, things have panned out pretty well for the Rangers. The team bottomed out and lucked into some ping pong ball magic to move up to the second overall pick in the lottery. With the addition of a franchise-shifting talent at number two overall, the team has its face to carry the team into the next decade.

In addition to getting younger and building up a considerably deep pool of prospects, the Rangers have serious cap flexibility. Even though the team has several players in need of restricted free agent contract extensions, New York has the room to sign them with necessary raises while also targeting a marquee free agent.

Every single summer, the opening of the negotiating period between teams and free agents is a complicated game of musical chairs. The issue is, no team ever wants to be the one caught standing when the music stops. This brings us to the Rangers and this summer.

Going Stag

The very nature of the current labor market in the NHL dictates that the market for free agents will always be inflated. Since it takes eight years of service or a player reaching age 27 before they can truly get their market value, it typically results in teams being forced to pay a premium price on a level of player that isn’t worth it.

On Capfriendly.com there is a tab on the home page which tracks the most common contracts bought out by users making custom rosters for a team. The four most common as of this writing are Patrick Marleau of the Toronto Maple Leafs, James Neal of the Calgary Flames, Milan Lucic of the Edmonton Oilers and Karl Alzner of the Montreal Canadiens.

What do these four players have in common? They were all signed to bad long-term contracts as unrestricted free agents. Now, just because the contract a player has is bad does not mean they aren’t talented or could have a positive impact. What it does mean is that the team wasted cap space which can be a death knell to any potential contender.

There is the notion amongst executives in the salary cap sports that if the team has money to spend under the cap, it should.

This is not a fiscally responsible means of conducting business. There is nothing wrong with rolling over cap space into the following season and having financial flexibility for moves during the course of the season. Especially if a team misses out on its targeted free agents, it shouldn’t feel pressured into signing someone.

How the Rangers blow this

Ever since Henrik Lundqvist took over the full-time starter’s job in the 2005-2006 season, the Rangers were always a team trying to contend. This made the front office more inclined to only focus on the short term because of the Swede’s tremendous talent. All it takes is a goalie to get hot and magical things can happen in pursuit of Lord Stanley’s Cup.

Yet, when the time came, Gorton was ready to blow it up and really slow things down. Focusing on the long-term and being transparent that the Rangers were going to take a step back took guts. The last two years were a grind for New York, familiar faces were shipped out and young players tried to find their footing at the World’s Most Famous Arena.

There should not be any pressure on the front office to try and compete for a playoff spot this upcoming season. In fact, this should be the final year of transition to the young core in which the team of the future takes its shape. Whoever the team takes second overall, Vitali Kravtsov and one of the prospect defensemen joining the lineup will give the future a vision.

If the Rangers miss out on Artemi Panarin it shouldn’t settle for its second or third rated free agent. While Erik Karlsson is certainly talented, a 31-year-old with a history of lower body issues doesn’t exactly scream perfect fit for a rebuilding team. Tying up a significant chunk of the team’s cap space in one single player is a big risk.

I don’t think Karlsson will have as dramatic a drop off as Lucic, Marleau, Neal or Alzner, but the chance does exist.

Simply put, the Rangers’ front office cannot try to force the team’s timeline up even if it wants to. The organization was patient enough to wait two years to get the ship headed in the right direction. Throwing all of that away to sign a free agent or two and try force a playoff birth right away is misguided.

There is nothing wrong with trying to improve the roster this summer, that should always be the goal. Yet, there needs to be an emphasis on spending smart and trying to stay the course without forcing anything.