Part of a general manager’s challenge in the salary cap era is maintaining a contender. The New York Rangers may be able to capitalize on the Vegas Golden Knights’ impending salary cap crunch.
As the New York Rangers’ organization learned over the course this decade, it’s extremely difficult to maintain a quality roster. The foundation of any contender this decade was some elite talent coupled with below market value contracts. But, eventually, the time comes when that below market value player wants to be paid a fair price.
Look back to some of New York’s more secondary pieces from its deep postseason runs. Players like Carl Hagelin, Anton Stralman, Brian Boyle, Cam Talbot, Dominic Moore and Derek Dorsett were all traded or allowed to leave in free agency because the front office couldn’t afford to keep them without going over the salary cap.
Now on the opposite end of the spectrum, the Rangers’ front office is in the process of acquiring talent to build a new core. While the high-end talent is young and malleable, there will need to be a supporting cast to supplement what the stars bring to the table. When it comes postseason time, a real contender needs to have four lines and three defensive pairs it can depend on.
Right now, the Rangers’ roster has several bottom six and bottom pair players clogging up the lineup. Eventually, the books will be clear and those spots will be replaced with more quality pieces that provide value closer to their cap hit.
This summer is going to be a test for Jeff Gorton and company to maintain the discipline they’ve kept the last 18 months or so. While there are some big fish out there to be wooed in free agency or acquired in a trade, making a move for the sake of making one is a mistake.
While a trade for defenseman Colin Miller might not move the needle for much of the hockey world, the 26-year-old is much more balanced than any of the blueliners that New York currently features.
Vegas is up against it
In the Vegas Golden Knights first two years of existence, the team made the playoffs both time. This year, the trade deadline acquisition of forward Mark Stone gave Vegas one of the best top sixes in the entire league and set the group up for the immediate future. However, much of the Golden Knights early success is tied to players selected in the expansion draft two years ago.
As the cast off spare parts of the other 30 teams, most of the Vegas roster was being paid below market value. For example, the aforementioned Miller is 26-years-old and makes $3.875 million per season and is under contract until the 2021-2022 season. This is below market value for an above average right-handed defenseman.
The issue for Vegas is that it’s now time to start paying those players who were misvalued with their old organization. Right now, the Golden Knights are over the salary cap of $79.5 million and right up against next year’s projected $83 million for 2019-2020. This makes for a summer of tightening the belt in hopes of keeping a contender together.
Someone like Miller is a luxury for a team that thinks it could win the Stanley Cup. Several teams made passes at the Knights to acquire the defenseman according to Elliot Friedman of Sportsnet Canada. However, Friedman carefully made sure to note that the “Knights weren’t looking to give him away.”
This would be a salary relief move for Vegas because the team needs to sign key restricted free agent William Karlsson to an extension. Freeing up that money associated with Miller’s contract in exchange for a draft pick is a necessary move to keep together Vegas’ core for a run next year.
Where the Rangers come in
Now, I know what you’re thinking. The Rangers, a team that played ten different defensemen last year and with even more young guys in the mix for this upcoming year do not need another player in the mix for a roster spot. With Neal Pionk, Tony DeAngelo, Kevin Shattenkirk and Adam Fox all pushing for three spots, would Miller make sense?
Before you think I’m crazy, let’s unpack what Miller brings to the table. This past year, the former Boston Bruin averaged 19:39 of ice time per game and recorded 29 points including 26 assists. The defenseman did so while generating a Corsi For Percentage of 56.01 according to Naturalstattrick.com.
This means that when Miller was on the ice for Vegas at even strength, he helped generate 56.01 percent of the scoring chances in the game. For perspective, not a single Rangers’ defenseman generated a CF% of more than 50 percent. That means that no New York blueliner helped create more scoring chances than the other team while they were on the ice.
In addition to Miller’s sparkling advanced statistics, he’s also an above average offensive defenseman that can help create zone entries and exits while not being a total liability at holding his own blue line. Meaning, that Miller’s offensive instincts do not totally inhibit his responsibility as a defenseman.
This past year, Miller was in the 50th percentile or better at shot contributions, clean possession entry, successful zone entry, possession exits, successful exits, breakups per 60, zone entries allowed and successful zone entries allowed.
In a nutshell, Miller is above average at keeping the puck in his team’s possession as well as separating the puck from the opponent. That is more than can be said for every single right-handed defenseman that played for the Rangers this past season.
While both Shattenkirk and DeAngelo were successful at generating entries and exits, they both struggled and preventing zone entries. Meaning that even if they were creating offense in transition, they were a liability at preventing the other team from entering the zone.
Making it all work
Based on Friedman’s previous reporting that “Vegas wasn’t looking to give Miller away,” it likely means that its front office would like to acquire at least a mid-round pick in return for the defenseman. The Ontario native is a nice piece signed to a team friendly deal and would make any third pair instantly better.
If Gorton feels that the Rangers are ready to compete as soon as this year, swapping a mid-round pick and a young asset to sure up his third pair seems like an obvious choice. While New York won’t have a real chance at the Stanley Cup, it certainly could make a playoff appearance for the first time in two years with the new pieces in the fold.
Let’s say that the Rangers want to sell high on DeAngelo after a strong first full season. The front office could send the New Jersey native’s restricted free agent rights to Vegas with a third-round pick and that’d be enough to get Miller to New York.
The Rangers have $20 million or so in cap space with five restricted free agents that need to be extended or dealt. Rough estimates have New York at somewhere between $10-14 million in cap space after these RFAs are dealt with. That makes big game hunting in unrestricted free agency slightly more difficult.
Granted, it’s totally plausible there are more moves to come whether it’s trading away or buying out roster players, there is a balancing act unfolding in front of everyone.
There’s a player that Miller compares to quite favorable that should make him quite enticing to the Rangers. In all of the zone entry, exit, chance creation and zone prevention stats, Miller is better than Ryan Ellis of the Nashville Predators. While the Predators are built through the back end forward, their model of locking up players early makes sense.
The Rangers could use Miller in an Ellis like swingman role where he’s never out of his depth whenever on the ice. The Golden Knight is a better player than Pionk and more well rounded than either Shattenkirk or DeAngelo.
This is a pipedream trade for a Rangers team that’s on the cusp of greatness. But, finding value on the trade market is a key component of any well-designed roster. New York’s front office should at least make a call or two and explore what it’d cost to bring Miller to the Rangers.