New York Rangers: Implications of the Brock Nelson contract

The Islanders signed unrestricted free agent Brock Nelson to a long-term contract.  That deal could help set a standard for some New York Rangers contracts.

The first dominoes are beginning to fall and there are implications for the New York Rangers.  The first of the “big name” unrestricted free agents has signed a contract.  The Islanders signed forward Brock Nelson to a six year, $36 million contract earlier this week.

First, some background on Nelson.  He is going to be 28 when the season starts,  meaning that this contract will end when he is 33 years old. Nelson is a former first round draft pick (30th overall in 2010) who has played six years with the Isles.  He is coming off a three-year bridge deal that paid him $2.5 million per year.

He just had his best season as an Islander with 53 points.  His 25 goals were one below his career best of 26.   He is durable, having missed only two games in the last five seasons.

He has averaged 21 goals and 41 points per season . The Islanders still have eight UFA’s after signing Nelson, including Anders Lee and Jordan Eberle.

Just like Kreider

The one Ranger who could possibly be in line for a new contract  who is most similar to Nelson is Chris Kreider.  Like Nelson, Kreider was a first round pick (19th overall in 2009).  He has played six full seasons in the NHL, all for the Rangers.

Kreider is also coming off his best season with a career high 28 goals and his 52 points was one below his best.  Over his career, Kreider has averaged 24 goals and 48 points per 82 games, slightly higher than Nelson.

Unlike Nelson, Kreider  missed some extensive time in 2017-18 with a blood clot but has been durable otherwise, missing fewer than a half dozen games over the last five seasons (except for the blood clot season).

Kreider is going into the last year of four-year deal worth $4.6 million per year.  He signed that after he signed a  two-year bridge deal.

Kreider is about five months older than Brock Nelson.

The Kreider question

Should the Rangers sign Kreider to a deal comparable to the one that Brock Nelson got?  Their statistics are close, with Kreider sporting slightly better scoring averages and better lifetime possession stats.  His lifetime Corsi for is 51.6% compared to Nelson’s 48.7.%.

If Kreider could replicate his output from the first half of the past season for 82 games, it would be a no-brainer.  Unfortunately, he has never been able to do that.   Another factor is that the Rangers are paying their best forward, Mika Zibanejad, $5.35 million per year. Is Kreider worth more than the team’s top center?

While the Rangers may not be willing to pay that price to extend Kreider’s contract, when Nelson signed that deal it set a standard that Kreider will probably be looking for when he becomes a UFA at the end of next season.  And that means someone else may be willing to pay that price.

Other questions for the Rangers

The good news is that there are no other forwards on the current Rangers roster who are comparable to Brock Nelson. Vlad Namestnikov and Jimmy Vesey will be UFA’s after next season and Ryan Strome will be a restricted free agent.  None of them have produced anywhere near Nelson’s numbers so future contracts would probably be in the $4 million range (if the team chooses to re-sign them).

The one player that is a concern in Pavel Buchnevich.  The Russian forward has top six skills, but has never been consistent enough to warrant a steady role there. If he continues to score the way he did over the last month of the season, he could be headed towards Nelson-like numbers.

As a restricted free agent this summer, the big question for the Rangers is whether they ink him to a long-term contract for a  heft raise, gambling on him to raise his level of play or to sign him to two year bridge deal to see if he will improve.

Other free agents

Nelson’s payday will serve as an indicator of what the going rate will be for players like him.  The UFA’s most like Nelson in age and ability are Jordan Eberle, Kevin Hayes, William Karlsson, Gustav Nyqvist and Anders Lee.

If the Rangers fail in their quest to land Artemi Panarin, they could go after another high level talent like Jeff Skinner or Matt Duchene or they could got for a cheaper option and the Nelson deal gives them some parameters to deal with.