Every summer an NHL executive dangles the threat of an offer sheet to some reporter. Instead of an empty threat, the New York Rangers’ front office should consider trading for the rights of a restricted free agent.
Ever since the NHL formulated the new offer sheet compensation following the most recent lockout, they’ve rarely been used. For an impact player that courts more than $10.1 million on the open market, it’d cost the signing team four first-round picks. With such a daunting price, teams don’t make offers to restricted free agents.
With the New York Rangers in year two of a rebuild, some have assumed that the team would be aggressive this offseason. In addition to several major unrestricted free agents like Artemi Panarin, Erik Karlsson and Matt Duchene there are also two elite restricted free agents in Brayden Point and Mitch Marner.
As previously mentioned, teams rarely make offers to restricted free agents because of the compensation attached. However, a more plausible path for the Rangers to land either Marner or Point would be trading for either’s restricted free agent rights. This would give New York an elite talent under team control for several more seasons before needing a UFA contract.
Either Marner or Point would instantly become the Rangers’ best player if the team were able to add them to the roster. It’s also far more likely to happen than New York giving up offer sheet compensation.
Since New York is still a team likely a year or two away from seriously competing for a playoff spot it doesn’t make a ton of sense to either give up four first-round picks and because the Rangers dealt their second-round pick to the Carolina Hurricanes for defenseman Adam Fox, they could not offer a yearly salary between $8.1 million and $10.1 million.
The salary crunch
Simply put, both the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning are facing a major cap crunch. When it comes to the Leafs, things are even more complicated because of the deals the team recently signed Auston Matthews and John Tavares to in the last 12 months. Throw in the rumor that Marner’s camp wants an AAV of $11 million per year and things get sticky.
If the Marner has his heart set on making $11 million, there’s little the Maple Leafs can do without salary relief. There is a prevailing sentiment around the league that Toronto is going to get both Patrick Marleau and Nikkita Zaitsev’s contracts off of their books in the next couple of weeks. But, until then, Marner’s future with the team has to be somewhat in doubt.
The Point situation with Tampa Bay is a little easier to resolve in terms of salary. With several players becoming free agents all at the same time, the Lightning can incorporate more young talent from within its own pipeline and save money around the edges.
While this may be a moot point if Toronto can find takers for both Marleau and Zaitsev, there is an outside possibility that the Maple Leafs opt for depth instead of an individual. For as good a player as Marner was in the first round series against the Boston Bruins, there was only so much he could do.
What it would cost
Assuming that Marner was able to leverage his way into a trade out of Toronto, it would not come cheap. This past season, the Ontario native recorded 94 points including 26 goals on a dominant offensive team in the Maple Leafs. When Marner was on the ice, the Maple Leafs created 51.7 percent of the scoring chances at even strength.
So, in this scenario, Rangers general manager Jeff Gorton calls Kyle Dubas of the Maple Leafs and offers several pieces to take up the Marner spot. In addition to matching the production of Marner, the Leafs would also need players that are under team control for several seasons to avoid walking right back into the same situation.
In all likelihood, the starting point would probably be the second overall pick in this June’s entry draft. Now some may balk at that price point for a trade, but Marner did record 94 points this past season while Jack Hughes and Kappo Kakko have never played a single second of NHL ice time.
In addition to the second overall pick, the Rangers would likely need to send defensive help for the Toronto Blue line that’s riddled with holes. Maybe it’s Kevin Shattenkirk, perhaps Brendan Smith in a purely shot suppressing role. Either way, New York would need to part with an NHL ready defenseman.
The Maple Leafs are trying to win the Stanley Cup right now, trading for even high-end prospects doesn’t make much sense for their timeline.
While restricted free agents do get their rights traded from time to time, someone of Marner’s caliber forcing his team’s hand would be a major win for player rights. The forward is among the best in the entire league at his position and he should be paid as such. If that requires being traded to another organization to do so, so be it.
It is unlikely that the Leafs misread this Marner contract negotiation and end up unable to extend the winger. However, on the outside chance, Toronto needs a buyer for Marner, the Rangers should eagerly be dialing up Dubas as quick as the call can connect.