It’s 7 pm on July 1st, Artemi Panarin is a Florida Panther, Erik Karlsson is the newest member of the Tampa Bay Lightning, Matt Duchene is in the Music City with the Predators. The New York Rangers, well, they missed out.
Every single summer during NHL free agency, there comes a point when the music stops. Then those teams caught standing without a chair can panic spend on a bottom six player or the front office can accept that it missed out and roll over its financial flexibility to the following summer. The New York Rangers are facing this situation come July 1st.
As a team with cap space, an interest in dramatically improving and a marquee landing spot, the Rangers are always floated as a busy team in free agency. This past summer, the Rangers only brought in one outside free agent, defenseman Fredrik Claesson, in anticipation of a rebuilding season.
The nature of the team’s rebuild is one based on quality and patience, not a quick turnaround. While the organization would never admit it, the team finishing in the top ten of the draft lottery and sliding into the second overall pick was probably the best possible outcome for last year’s team. There simply wasn’t a ton to work with.
The NHL is drastically different from the NFL in the sense that it takes a several years for most draft picks to develop into professionals. In the NFL, a player drafted in April will be wearing shoulder pads and a helmet come that following September.
With a significant chunk of the Rangers’ future core still in this developmental stage, it would not be the end of the world if it missed out on the marquee free agents this summer. Sure, it’d be nice to add Artemi Panarin to a young and growing team.
But, pieces like Vitali Kravtsov, K’Andre Miller, Nils Lundkvist, Filip Chytil, Lias Andersson, Yegor Rykov and Igor Shesterkin all need NHL ice time before the Rangers can consider the rebuild over. For prospects to become players, they need teaching and experience, there is no simulating NHL ice time.
Class of 2020
Looking at the free agent class of 2020 there is one clear headliner and several second-tier free agents. At the top of the class is New Jersey Devils winger Taylor Hall who won the Hart Memorial Trophy for the 2017-2018 season in which he recorded 93 points including 39 goals as the focal point of a surprise playoff team.
Going into his age 28 season, Hall is coming off of an injury that ended his season in December. There is already early sentiment that the former Hart Trophy winner is not interested in signing a long-term extension with the Devils. As a player that was stuck in the abyss of a franchise in Edmonton, he wants agency over his own career.
Now, there is the possibility that the Devils have a strong bounce-back season with likely first overall pick Jack Hughes in the fold. Similarly to New York, New Jersey is likely at least one or two years away from competing with its extremely young roster. There’s also the scenario in which the Devils trade Hall for a bundle before the 2019-2020 trade deadline.
But, if Hall makes it to UFA on July 1st of 2020 and the Rangers don’t sign anyone this summer, they’d likely move heaven and Earth to bring one of the game’s preeminent wingers to Madison Square Garden.
It’d also have the added benefit of the Rangers’ prospects having an extra year of seasoning before bringing in a premium talent. There’s a totally different conversation to be had whether it makes sense to pay a single player more than ten percent of the salary cap, but that’s for a different day.
Final thoughts
Trying to build a team through free agency is always a risky proposition and in hockey especially. Of the teams that won the Stanley Cup this decade, not a single one signed a marquee free agent to a major contract. The key contributors to those teams were either drafted and developed or traded for.
Instead, it’s depth signings in free agency that make an impact. Think Matt Cullen on the Penguins, or Devante Smith-Pelly in Washington. To Win the Stanley Cup, it takes a core that’s been together for a period of time that has a feel for each other and the right mix of free agent and trade pieces.
No matter what, I’m always skeptical of paying players come free agency time. For the most part, this is the one time a player will get a chance at a big payday based on the way that free agency works. It’s not their fault that the league restricts player movement, but the one time that players do have leverage it hurts teams trying to build.
The Rangers need their own version of Hall if they’re going to be a serious contender. If New York misses out this summer on Panarin, Hall will likely be there next summer waiting to be wooed.