New York Rangers: The impact of the Jeff Skinner signing

For the New York Rangers, Jeff Skinner had always been a plan B.  He signed a massive eight-year deal with Buffalo, so what impact does that have on the Blueshirts?

Jeff Skinner was more familiar to the New York Rangers as a thorn in their side when he played for the Hurricanes. It seemed like he always elevated his game when playing New York and it felt like he could score at will.   If he continues to torment the Blueshirts, it will be in a Buffalo uniform like he did this season when he notched two goals in three games.

While Skinner re-signing with Buffalo was expected by most observers, it does impact  the Rangers’ summer plans.

The Skinner salary

Skinner signed an eight-year, $72 million contract with a full No Movement Clause.  He will be 35 years old when the contract expires and will earn $9 million a year through 2027.  Skinner and Jack Eichel now account for 22.5% of the Sabres’ payroll and Buffalo is headed towards cap trouble.

Although they are going into 2019-20 with over $20 million in cap space, when it comes time to sign their young players like Rasmus Dahlin, Brandon Montour, Sam Reinhart and Casey Mittelstadt, they are going to have some issues.

Let’s not forget that Buffalo finished with the fifth worst record in the NHL, are on their fourth head coach in four years and their third general manager in six years and they have finished last in the Atlantic Division four times in the last six  years.  Yikes.

At $9 million a year, this give us a preview of what Artemi Panarin will command as an unrestricted free agent.  Skinner scored a career high 40 goals and finished with 63 points.  Panarin had 28 goals and has never topped 31 in his career.  He did have 87 points, a career high and added five goals and 11 points in 10 playoff games.

This season both players scored at the same rate at equal strength and on the power play.   While Skinner is considered the more prolific goal scorer, over their careers, their numbers are very similar:

                    Goals per game      Points per game
Skinner              0.37                             0.67
Panarin             0.36                              0.99

The Panarin salary

There is no doubt that Artemi Panarin is a better overall player than Jeff Skinner.  So how does Skinner’s big payday impact a potential Panarin deal?

It clearly established that Panarin will look for more money.  Skinner gave up some dollars for the security of the No Movement Clause and the extra contract year.

Panarin can only sign for seven years (unless he re-ups with Columbus) and the question is whether he will require a NMC.  He was not happy when he was traded to Columbus from Chicago so a NMC is probably a given.

Skinner was coming off a six-year deal that paid him $5.75 million per year.  Panarin is coming off a two-year deal that was worth $6 million per year so the dollars that both made are comparable.

Both players are 27-years old, though Skinner is six months younger than Panarin. This is the last opportunity for a big contract for Panarin, as it was for Skinner.

With Skinner at $9 million, the other comparables are Mark Stone and Nikita Kucherov at $9.5 million per year.  Keep in mind that Kucherov signed his latest deal before he led the NHL in scoring this season and he plays for a non-state income tax team.  Mark Stone signed his deal with Vegas as free agency loomed and both players got the magic eighth year on their contracts.

So, it will take more than $9.5 million to get Artemi Panarin under contract, probably in excess of $10 million for seven years with a full No Movement Clause.

There are other free agents out there.