There has been a lot of chatter about the New York Rangers trading up to get a second top ten draft pick. While trading up into the top ten is doubtful, the team does possess the assets they could use to move up.
Every NHL team has their own rankings and the New York Rangers are no exception. Last year the team had zeroed in on K’Andre Miller, hoping that he would be available when the team picked 26th. When it looked like he would be gone, Gorton pulled the trigger on a deal and traded up.
The Rangers moved from 26th to 22nd by trading their second first round pick (26th overall), acquired in the Rick Nash deal with Boston as well as the second round pick (48th overall) acquired in the Michael Grabner deal with Boston, to Ottawa.
In exchange for the two picks, the Rangers were able to select Miller, who the Rangers valued higher than most of the hockey cognoscent who had him going later in the draft.
That is one form of trading up in the draft and it is much more common that trading into the top ten. Teams are getting increasingly reluctant to give up a top pick no matter what the return.
Trading up into the top ten
Trading for a first round pick and getting a top ten pick usually happens when a team makes a drastic error in assessing their own talent. The poster child for this are the Ottawa Senators who traded for Colorado’s Matt Duchene and gave up a conditional first rounder. They made the deal in November 2017 after the team had come within one goal of going to the Stanley Cup Finals.
The Senators believed that that they were a few crucial pieces away from taking the next step so they made the deal for Duchene. Instead, the team collapsed and missed the playoffs. Rather than risk losing a lottery pick, they deferred the first rounder to 2019 and selected Brady Tkachuk with the fourth pick. That’s how Colorado ended up with a lottery pick in 2019 although they were a playoff team. Although Ottawa finished last in the NHL, the Avalanche will be picking fourth after losing out in the lottery.
That’s how most top draft picks end up getting traded. For this exercise, we will only look at top ten picks acquired close to the Entry Draft, a true example of trading up at the draft.
Since the lockout in 2004-05 teams have traded into the top ten only seven time and only once in the last five years. It has become a rarity in the NHL and he odds of it happening this June are slim. One reason is that with advanced statistics, analytics and better scouting tools, it is much more unusual for a top ten pick to turn out to be a complete bust.
Let’s take a look at the teams who traded up into the top ten since the lockout of 2004-05 and grade the deals.