New York Rangers: The lower than expected cap ceiling is a problem

With the flurry of activity this week in the NHL, the reports that the players association and owners were only agreeing to an $81.5 million cap ceiling for the 2019-2020 season came as a surprise. How does it impact the New York Rangers and the rest of the league?

For all of the progress the NHL has made since the 2013 lockout-shortened season, the same old issues continue to rear their ugly head. The salary cap ceiling has increased by $19.5 million since that lockout at an incremental rate. However, the cap is roughly going to be $81.5 million for the 2019-2020 season, a meager $2 million increase.

While teams make moves and sign extensions, they’re doing so in the blind not knowing exactly how much they can spend. The Philadelphia Flyers doled out a $7.14 million per year contract to former Ranger Kevin Hayes without knowing what percentage of the cap that figure would represent.

It seems pretty ridiculous that team executives don’t have a salary cap figure to work with going into draft weekend. Typically, the draft is the most active period of the NHL season, even ahead of the trade deadline. So teams up against the forecasted cap ceiling of $83.5 million from a couple of weeks ago may be caught scrambling if they had moves to make.

Every year that goes by, the players gain slightly more traction in empowerment. As long as the salary cap keeps increasing, the salaries will follow suit.

The Rangers’ perspective

Thankfully, the New York Rangers are sitting comfortably with roughly $18 million in cap space going into this summer. For the sake of this exercise, we’ll go with Daren Dreger’s estimated $81.5 million figure for next season to start doling out James Dolan’s money to players in the form of extensions or free agents.

New York has four restricted free agents including the recently acquired Jacob Trouba. Also in the mix of group two free agents are Tony DeAngelo, Pavel Buchnevich and Brendan Lemieux. Of these four, Trouba, DeAngelo and Buchnevich could all logically be given long-term extensions instead of bridge deals.

The logic being that gambling on these players ahead of unrestricted free agency benefits both the player and the organization. By showing faith in players still growing, the organization saves money over time because they’re negotiating at a point when the RFA has less leverage and could be signed for a lower AAV.

Take the Chris Kreider contract that needs an extension, instead of bridging the Boston College product, the Rangers gave him a four-year deal worth $4.65 million per season.

Assuming that New York acquired Trouba to sign him long-term, the Michigan native can be penciled in for $7.5 million easy which brings the available cap down to $10.5 million for four RFAs. Let’s say the team bridge deals Lemieux to roughly $1 million for two years and we’re at $9.5 million for DeAngelo and Buchnevich.

This ultimately means that New York likely needs to move out its middle six forwards like Jimmy Vesey, Vladislav Namestnikov and Ryan Strome if it wants financial flexibility for the summer. There is also the possibility of buying out one of Marc Staal, Brendan Smith and Kevin Shattenkirk though that possible move would be more unlikely than a trade.

There’s also the Kreider situation which needs to be resolved one way or another. The Rangers seem to be leaning towards dealing the six-year veteran over a contract extension according to Larry Brooks of the New York Post. With the draft less than 24 hours away, Kreider’s agent and the team have yet to even talk numbers for an extension according to Brooks.

So, for those of you banking on Artemi Panarin bringing his talents to New York, there’s a significant amount of movement that still needs to happen.

The cap ceiling being $2 million lower than expected doesn’t hurt the Rangers as badly as it does other teams.

The dire straights

While the Rangers’ financial situation is solid, there are several teams around the league that will be forced to scramble for this lower than expected ceiling. When it comes to signing restricted free agents to long-term deals or improving on a contender, ever last dollar of cap space counts, so nearly $2 million less could be a dramatic loss.

Toronto Maple Leafs

For Mitch Marner and his father Paul (who is his representative), this is their summer in the NHL. The Maple Leafs dynamic right winger is insisting on being paid like teammates John Tavares and Auston Matthews even though he’s a winger and not a pivot. This means an average annual salary of $11.5 million even though the Leafs are right up against the ceiling, to begin with.

This, in turn, forced Toronto to get creative when it comes to cap space. It’s no secret that the Maple Leafs are actively shopping Nikita Zaitsev, Patrick Marleau and Nazim Kadri to make space to sign Marner as well as retain defenseman Jake Gardiner.

Toronto has roughly $7 million in cap space to fill out a roster that failed to get past the Boston Bruins for the second straight year. If the Leafs are going to get anywhere this summer, trades will need to follow or perhaps, this could be the first summer in several years to feature an offer sheet to a restricted free agent.

Vegas Golden Knights

The NHL’s newest franchise was a pleasant surprise last year when it made the Stanley Cup Final in its inaugural season and followed it up with a controversial exit in round one of its second season. The Vegas Golden Knights’ earlier than expected success was fueled through a favorable cap situation tied to players selected during the expansion draft that played better than expected.

However, in year two, the team took on significant salary, acquiring and extending forward Mark Stone, signing Paul Statsny, trading for Max Pacioretty and extending several players from that expansion draft. This has Vegas right up against the cap ceiling and the team will need to make trades to be cap compliant this upcoming season.

Pieces like defenseman Colin Miller or forward Ryan Reeves who make too much money for bottom pair or fourth line minutes might end up on the chopping block. Part of what makes Vegas effective is their top to bottom lineup depth that allows the team to come in waves, the lower than expected cap ceiling is sure to damage that.

Pittsburgh Penguins

The Pittsburgh Penguins, a team 24 months removed from winning back-to-back Stanley Cups is in the midst of a roster shakeup to return to contender status. After an embarrassing sweep at the hands of a surprising New York Islander team, the Penguins immediately went back to the well and began shopping Phil Kessel and his $6.8 million per year for three more seasons.

The Penguins and Minnesota Wild had a deal in principle but Kessel, by virtue of his no-trade clause, rejected the move. Since then, Pittsburgh sent defenseman Olli Maatta to the Chicago Blackhawks and has continued to try and come up with ways to improve a roster that’s overpriced for the results its generated.

The contracts of defensemen Jack Johnson and Erik Gudbranson are both pretty rough in terms of AAV as well as term and could be offloaded with draft picks as incentives for eating bad deals. As long as Pittsburgh has Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin at the top of its depth chart, they will try to remain a contender.

Whether foolhardy or not, the team’s cap situation may prove that goal impossible. With around $5 million in cap space to improve on a team that looked painfully slow against a slow Islanders team, Pittsburgh may have to take a step back before competing again.

There is still the outside possibility that the cap is slightly higher than the rumored $81.5 million, but with the uncertainty lingering over Friday night’s draft, team’s may be more reluctant to make moves.