New York Rangers: Jacob Trouba VS P.K. Subban, who ya got?
The battle for supremacy in the rivalry of the Hudson between the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils is heating up. With both teams acquiring impact right-handed defensemen, it’s fair to ask, who’s better?
After a game on April Fool’s Day this year in which both New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils fans collectively chanted “we both suck,” the two sides of the battle of the Hudson have taken drastic steps to improve. Aside from finishing one and two in the draft lottery to select Jack Hughes and Kappo Kakko, both teams took advantage of cap strapped teams.
The Rangers managed to snag right-handed defenseman Jacob Trouba, who’s wanted out of Winnipeg for the better part of two years, for Neal Pionk‘s restricted free agent rights and the first round pick New York acquired from the Jets this past February in return for Kevin Hayes. A pretty slam dunk deal for Rangers’ G.M. Jeff Gorton that he should make every single time.
Not to be outdone, Gorton’s New Jersey counterpart, Ray Shero, made the biggest trade of the draft weekend when he acquired defenseman P.K. Subban from the Nashville Predators for blueliner Steven Santini, prospect Jeremy Davies, a 2019 and a 2020 second round pick. The caveat being New Jersey is on the hook for the final $27 million over three years on Subban’s deal.
While dormant for the past several years, when it’s right, the battle of the Hudson is among the best rivalries in all of the NHL. With both teams boasting a freshly drafted star in the making, the two teams acquiring impact defenseman in a two-week stretch is another interesting wrinkle.
As a former Norris Trophy winner, the narrative says that Subban is a better player than Trouba. But, what do the numbers and average annual salary actually say about the quality of the right-handed defensemen?
Raw counting stats
At 25, soon to be 26-years-old, Trouba is still on the ascension of his NHL career. The former Jet posted a career-high 50 points this past year and dressed for all 82 games for the first time in his six years in the show. Of these 50 points, 18 came on the power play after getting an increased role in the absence of Dustin Byfuglien due to injury.
For the first time in his NHL career, Subban was merely mortal registering only 31 points this year for a Predators team that dramatically underachieved. The Ontario native is known for his flashy and impactful offensive game, so it was genuinely shocking to see the Predators finish with one of the worst power plays in the entire league since Subban was running the first unit.
It’s worth pointing out that Subban only dressed for 63 games this year and clearly was not 100 percent down the stretch.
In their respective careers, Subban averages 40.8 points per season and Trouba checks in at 29.8. So, it’s possible that Subban had the worst season of his career the same year that Trouba had the single best of his career.
The aging curve isn’t kind to those in the NHL once they hit 30-years-old. A change of scenery and a longer than usual off-season should help Subban return to form and lead a Devils’ blue line in desperate need of a catalyst.
Verdict: Trouba this past year, but Subban has a better sample size
Zone entry/exit
An underrated yet crucial aspect of the modern NHL defenseman is the ability to successfully create and prevent zone entries. For the Rangers in particular, the team has struggled to gain the offensive zone in transition in recent years, so the arrival of someone like Trouba should be a boon for chance creation.
By conventional wisdom, the more successful zone entries that the Rangers have, the more shots the team should get which in turns leads to more goals.
Using Christoper Turturro’s player comparison tool, we see the glaring hole in Trouba’s game. While the Michigan native ranks above the 75th percentile in shot contributions per 60, shot assists per 60, shots per 60, possession entries per 60, successful zone entry percentage, possessions per 60 and successful zone exit percentage, he struggles in his own end.
When it comes to Trouba holding his own blue line, he ranks in the 23rd percentile at zone entries allowed per 60 and successful zone entry percentage allowed.
While the difference between Trouba and Subban’s zone entry and exit stats is fairly negligible, Subban wipes the floor with the former Jet when it comes to preventing zone entries. Where Trouba is only in the 23rd percentile, at zone entries allowed, Subban is in the 85th.
This can be masked with the right defensive partner for Trouba with the Rangers, but Subban definitely has a clear edge here.
Verdict: Subban, not close
Impact on defensive partner
Speaking of masking a partner’s problems, even possession stats can be misleading with the right defensive partner. Both Trouba and Subban were positive possession players according to Naturalstatrick, but a deeper look shows that the former Predator had a significantly greater impact on his partners.
Again, using the logic that the more shots a player creates, the more effective they are, Subban clearly makes his teammates better. The more shots for that a player creates and fewer shots against they concede, the further to the top right corner their square will be in the graph above. So, Subban without his teammates is a net positive.
While Trouba is also in the positive region of the graph, his cluster is much closer to the median shots for and against. This category leans in favor of Subban for the second straight category. Although, it’s fair to note that Trouba will likely have a better defensive partner with his new team than Subban with his.
Verdict: Subban, but this one could flip
Cost
Now, this may be a touch unfair to Subban because Trouba’s yet to sign an extension with the Rangers, but, we can go with baseline reports of what the Michigan native has asked for in negotiations with the Jets. So, that being said, we’re gonna say Trouba ends up getting $7.5 million per year for at least five years.
This would be $1.5 million less than what the Devils are paying Subban. The Predators gave away a superstar defenseman in what was essentially a salary dump because $9 million is a lot to be paying a single player. New Jersey did have $35 million in cap space going into the summer, so it was one of the few teams that could afford to absorb Subban’s deal.
There are only two defensemen, Erik Karlsson and Drew Doughty, who make more than Subban. Coming off of an injury-shortened season in which the Ontario native recorded the fewest points in his career, Subban may be trending into the overpaid but still effective category.
Therefore, since Trouba is still on the positive end of the aging curve and is expected to make $1.5 million less in cap space for similar offensive production the Rangers are getting better value.
Of the four teams that made it to the conference final this year (San Jose Sharks, St.Louis Blues, Carolina Hurricanes and Boston Bruins) no player made more than Brent Burns $8 million. Tying anymore than that up in a single player comes to the detriment of the team’s overall depth.
Verdict: Trouba assuming he signs for $7.5
Judgment: Trouba by a hair
Now, the sample size for Subban is significantly larger. The blueliner is about to enter his 11th season in the NHL and even though he gets a bad rap from close-minded individuals who are turned off by his fun personality or flair for the dramatic, he’s among the best in the entire league at his position when he’s right.
They don’t just hand out the Norris Trophy to anyone, it’s pretty hard for a defenseman to record multiple 50 point seasons. But, unless Subban can stave off injury, play a full season and return to his old form, he’s a pricey piece on a team that likely needs more help before it’s ready to contend.
Even though 35 points would be nothing to sneer at from a defenseman, at $9 million per year, it’s steep.
So, with a lower cap hit, a ceiling that still can be reached and probably a better defensive partner than Subban will have in New Jersey, it’s safe to say that Trouba’s value with the Rangers will be greater than that of the former Predator and Canadien.
Based on raw talent alone? The edge has to go to Subban if this past year was just a down year aberration due to injury and it’s not really a discussion. However, Father Time is undefeated and with every passing year, the miles add up on Subban’s odometer and according to the Athletic, more than one scout was “concerned with [Subban’s] skating,” and that “he slowed down.”
Next. Some gems in later rounds. dark
If the Rangers can get 40 points out of Trouba while playing top pair minutes at $7.5 million, the edge has to go to him. If nothing else, the battle for the Hudson finally has some juice after hibernation since the 2014 Stadium Series game in which Martin Brodeur was run out of Yankee Stadiuim in a blowout which he blamed on the ice surface.