New York Rangers: Welcome to the new NHL

The ultimate winner

The 2018-19 season was an aberration.  It was the first time in four years that a team won the Cup with a roster that wasn’t so frontloaded.  Here’s how much of the cap was taken up by the top four contracts on each of the teams that made the Finals over the last four years:

2015-16 
45% – Pittsburgh Penguins (winner)
35%  – San Jose Sharks (runner-up)
2016-17 
44% – Pittsburgh Penguins (winner)
37% – Nashville Predators (runner-up)
2017-18 
40% – Washington Capitals (winner)
28% – Vegas Golden Knights (runner-up)
2018-19 
34% – St. Louis Blues (winner)
34% – Boston Bruins (runner-up)

The Blues proved a team can win with without a megastar and by smart contract management. St. Louis is one team that has foregone the bridge contract model and signed their budding stars for long-term at rates that are now more than reasonable.

In July 2015, they signed Vladimir Tarasenko to an eight-year $60 million contract.  Four years laer, his $7.5 million cap hit is a bargain.  in 2017 they signed defensive stalwart Colton Parayko to a five year $27.5 million deal.  His $5.5 million annual hit is  another bargain.  Team leader Alex Pietrangelo was signed to a seven year contract at an annual $6.5 million cap hit.  If they were on the free agent marketplace, they would be getting much more.

With only Robert Thomas and Vince Dunn on ELC’s the lower top salaries allowed the team to sign a better level of depth player like Tyler Bozak and David Perron, providing them with the depth that they needed to go all the way.

They have also shown some smart salary management.  They traded Paul Stastny and his $7 million contract to Winnipeg even though they were still in playoff contention.  The year before, it was Kevin Shattenkirk. They  also have not had to execute any buyouts they are still paying for.

With no major roster changes, they head into the new season with their top four players accounting for 33% of their cap space.

The new season

The 2019-20 season will be a real test of salary cap management.  On one side you have the teams with a big chunk of the budget (40% or more) taken up by the top four players   On the other side are the teams who have spread out that payroll  (34% or less) Here’s how the top eight teams compare as well as the Rangers and Blues, with some key pieces still unsigned on some of the clubs.

1. Toronto   42.4% (Mitch Marner still unsigned)
2. San Jose  42.3%
3. Tampa  40% (Braydon Point still unsigned)
4. Rangers  39.8% (Jacob Trouba still unsigned)
5. Washington  39.3%
6. Nashville  34.6%
7. Boston  34%
8. St. Louis 33%
9. Calgary 31% (Matthew Tkachuk still unsigned)
10. Islanders  30%

A disaster in Edmonton

The worst case scenario is what has befallen the Oilers, a situation that has been well documented.  They have two of the best players in the world in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl and paid them accordingly, but made a huge mistake by signing an aging Milan Lucic to a $6 million contract that still has four more years to run.  Add Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and those four players take up 40% percent of the Oilers’ cap hit.

With only two players on Entry Level Contracts, they’ve surrounded their stars with mid-level talent and have made the playoffs only once in 13 years.   It doesn’t help that they are on the hook for about $4 million for the next two years in salary from buyouts of bad contracts to Benoit Pouliot and Andrej Sekera.