A Kevin Shattenkirk buyout. Really?

Saturday, New York Post columnist Larry Brooks predicted a buyout of Kevin Shattenkirk‘s contract.   While that would clear badly needed cap space, it is the worst buyout scenario facing the New York Rangers.

There’s no dispute that the New York Rangers have a salary cap situation.  The various options for buyouts have been discusses ad nauseum.  Blue Line Station’s own Jim Madden provided a comprehensive look into the benefits of the various options.   In his New York Post column, Ranger writer Larry Brooks dropped a few bomblets.

Brooks proclaimed that Shattenkirk will be bought out.  He also said that Matt Beleskey and Brendan Smith will be buried in the AHL and that there have been no discussions with anyone regarding a  trade of Chris Kreider and there have been no discussions with him about an extension.

The Kreider news makes sense. It’s pointless to talk talk contract with him until the team has resolved the cap issues facing them this year and beyond.

As for all of the other roster moves, while they are all viable, the Shattenkirk buyout makes the least sense.  The only rationale for it is that the team has a surplus of right handed shooting defensemen and that is not enough.

It’s 2020-21 that matters

To illustrate, it is worth looking at the Rangers’ cap situation next fall.   According to Capfriendly.com, the 2020-21 Rangers have all of $16 million in projected cap space (if the cap remains at $81.5 million).

The scary part is that they have allotted $65.4 million to 15 players whereas this year, their $85.6 million cap hit is spread over 23 players.  That 15 player roster doesn’t include Chris Keider, Jesper Fast, Vlad Namestnikov, Ryan Strome, Boo Nieves or Alexandar Georgiev.

That’s where the Shattenkirk buyout makes no sense.  While the team would save $5.2 million in cap space this fall, that savings would drop to $566k next fall.  His buyout cap hit would be almost $6.1 million, equivalent to the salary of a top six forward.  In essence, his dead cap space would be more expensive than every player on the team except Artemi Panarin, Jacob Trouba and Henrik Lundqvist.

As desperate as Gorton & Company are to get under the cap this season, there is no way that they will sabotage the team next fall when they will be ready to be a legitimate Cup contender.  That’s not to mention that Shattenkirk’s cap hit for the two seasons after that would be higher than any other buyout candidate.

What makes sense

The buyout that does make sense is Brendan Smith.  His buyout cap hit is the lowest over the length of the buyout at $6.4 million.  That compares to $9 million for Staal and $10.4 million for Shattenkirk.  A Smith buyout would bring immediate savings of almost $3.4 million. It wouldn’t be enough, but it would be a start and it wouldn’t have the long term expensive ramifications of a Shattenkirk buyout.

The team will definitely bury Beleskey in the AHL and you can be sure that they will ultimately trade Namestnikov even if the return is minimal.   If you thought a third round pick for Jimmy Vesey was a lousy return, wait till you see what they get for Namestnikov.

The only Shattenkirk scenario that does make sense is a trade similar to the deal the Maple Leafs made with the Hurricanes to get Patrick Marleau off their books. Trading him to a team in need of a righthanded shooting defenseman while retaining a couple million in salary for next to no return is a good deal for both teams.  You can be sure that is what the Rangers are trying to do.

If Brooks is right and Shattenkirk is bought out, it would raise some very troubling questions about the team’s strategy moving forward.  It just makes no sense.